January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty weak deformation signature so far. Should fill in soon. If not by 6-7pm I'd start to be concerned.

 

I don't think the models had much of any impressive deformation band at this time.

HRRR has it looking quite weak until about 7PM when it pumps some iron and bulks up a bit and then a fairly quick changeover to snow through about 8 PM. 

 

 

Through 8AM tomorrow

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017011022/hrrr_asnow_nwus_18.png

[Kayla]

I'm back! Awesome to see the models holding or even increasing snow totals for tonight. Below freezing 925's are slowly creeping their way through the gorge as the PDX-DLS gradient is now up to -6.8mb.

 

Haven't been home most of the day but came home to light snow showers and they continue up here currently. Just dropped below 32º so it's all sticking snow from this point forward. Going to be a fun night and looking forward to my last snow storm here in Portland before heading to Bozeman on Saturday!

[Timmy]

Watch out, Timmy will ask you if you're mad! "U mad bro?"... something my cousin in middle school says all the time

U like big macks bro?

[Bryant]

U like big macks bro?

Fast food is nasty

[Deweydog]

Down to 35/24 at Larch with winds gusting to 31.  

 

If we can get some decent precip, won't take long to bring that to the surface.  

[BLI snowman]

Switched to clear air mode, shits getting real real.

[Bryant]

you used to like to new big macks... bro

Inside joke

[Front Ranger]

Certainly looking more promising with temps/DPs for most of Portland area heading into tonight. Good overnight timing with this system as well. Will be interesting to see how far north precip rotates. Still skeptical for locations SLE south.

 

If this setup fails, THERE IS NO HOPE.

[North_County]

Pretty solid outflow in north Whatcom this afternoon. I haven't seen it blow like this in a while.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Certainly looking more promising with temps/DPs for most of Portland area heading into tonight. Good overnight timing with this system as well. Will be interesting to see how far north precip rotates. Still skeptical for locations SLE south.

 

If this setup fails, THERE IS NO HOPE.

40 here in Keizer.

[Front Ranger]

18z 3km NAM didn't show most of Portland metro seeing accumulating snow until after 8-9 pm. So don't panic if you don't have any by then!

[Timmy]

Inside joke

cool beans. Accidentally deleted my comment trying to edit.

 

 

Just rain in scappoose still. We are supposed to be winners out here, will be interesting to track. Hrrr shows over a foot here in the next 15 hours, just to tell you how great of a model

It is

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am predicting snow for the Salem area, but it may not be until about 3 to 5am

[Perturbed Member]

18z 3km NAM didn't show most of Portland metro seeing accumulating snow until after 8-9 pm. So don't panic if you don't have any by then!

HRRR 23z through 9AM, it still shows moderate snow at the end of the run.

 

How accurate are these snowmaps from the HRRR? They look absurd

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017011023/hrrr_asnow_nwus_18.png

[FroYoBro]

I saw plenty of snowflakes in the air on my drive from Beaverton to Tigard. The radar looks like it is starting to fill in to the south. Almost go time! 

[Timmy]

Snow now mixing in in scappoose

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticeably northerly breeze here in Keizer down to 39

 

Moderate rain

[Deweydog]

54 in North Bend.

[Kayla]

HRRR 23z through 9AM, it still shows moderate snow at the end of the run.

 

How accurate are these snowmaps from the HRRR? They look absurd

 

 

This one has much better resolution and more realistic over the next 18 hours. I should add that snow is still falling moderately at the end of the run (9am) as well so those totals will continue to increase.

 

[Goducks09]

Weenie comment ahead:  This thing looks weak and quick moving on satellite, I must say.  Hopefully it's just an illusion!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This one has much better resolution and more realistic over the next 18 hours.

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 4.51.35 PM.png

Shows east metro staying as rain longer

[TT-SEA]

Sunset...

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

This one has much better resolution and more realistic over the next 18 hours.

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-10 at 4.51.35 PM.png

 

Looks amazing for the west metro and the HRRR still has solid snowfall going at the end of that run. 

[Kayla]

Shows east metro staying as rain longer

 

Yeah but see my above edit. The snow looks to continue through the morning hours with deformation band setting up.

[Jesse]

Shows east metro staying as rain longer

Would serve them right. I hate them so much.

 

#january1998nevrforget

[Deweydog]

Shows east metro staying as rain longer

Downslope warming perhaps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 36 now in Keizer with quite a bit of snow mixed in, the deformation is forming and doing work

[TT-SEA]

PDX radar loop looks much better.

[FroYoBro]

It is 34 and actually sleeting here right now. Seems strange. 

[Kayla]

PDX-DLS gradient just ramped up big time, -8.4mb now. Freezer door is wide open once again.

[umadbro]

Mix right now in Newberg.

 

36. Dp 32

[chopper 918]

Snow on top of Cooper Mountain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's going to happen folks!

[luminen]

Sunset...

 

 

 

Got about that much snow in some places in Burnaby still...along with some huge snow piles. 

[Jesse]

It's going to be fun to watch the rest of the metro area score while east Clark County gets dry slotted.

 

You buckled in Matt?

[umadbro]

All snow now.

[Perturbed Member]

http://i.imgur.com/vwMin.gif?noredirect

[Deweydog]

Gusting to 47 at Larch. No like.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty much all snow here and  lots of precip coming in. Is this real life?

[FroYoBro]

Gusting to 47 at Larch. No like.

 

Yeah, the winds are already pretty strong just in Tigard at this point.