January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Whatever it takes to bring Jim back. 

For it to actually snow up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For it to actually snow up here. 

 

Hey lets not ask to have our cake and eat it too!

[stuffradio]

Hahahaha Carrots to the rescue!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Morning lows

 

Astoria - 28

Eugene - 26

Salem  - 20

PDX    - 11

Vancouver - 8

HIO -     3

[Heavy Snow]

If the SSW verifies, and the PV is destroyed, then both February and March will be cold and blocky.

 

Given the eventual backcycle of the resultant wave-1 tropical convective regime/MJO, it would almost certainly lead to an Arctic blast and winter weather potential in the west when the forcing returns to the Niña domain(s).

That's fantastic news. Even if we don't get a true Arctic Blast, as long as we get cold enough air especially in the Columbia Basin, then we can have snow chances again.

[wx_statman]

11 at PDX this morning is coldest January reading since 1/11/1963.

 

Dovetails nicely with the 6 degrees at MFR back on the 6th, which was their coldest January reading since 1/23/1962.

 

I never thought this day would come! 

[wx_statman]

Morning lows

 

Astoria - 28

Eugene - 26

Salem  - 20

PDX    - 11

Vancouver - 8

HIO -     3

 

3 degrees at Hillsboro is something else.

[wx_statman]

Poor Seattle. 40/25 yesterday, and 25 again this morning. Shows you the rather anemic nature of this airmass. 

 

Also shows the power of snowcover. Makes me wonder how much colder the DJF record lows at PDX (or SEA) would be if were able to more consistently pull off clear nights with snowcover in our climate. The fact that we have record lows around 20 degrees during the heart of winter speaks to our inability to pull off patterns like this (which are so common east of the Rockies), rather than our inability at pulling off continental airmasses. 

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile... a pedestrian 25 at SEA and already up to freezing. Amazing how different Seattle has been.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So the official low of 11 at PDX was the coldest January low at PDX since an 11 degree reading on January 11, 1963. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Poor Seattle. 40/25 yesterday, and 25 again this morning. Shows you the rather anemic nature of this airmass. 

 

Also shows the power of snowcover. Makes me wonder how much colder the DJF record lows at PDX (or SEA) would be if were able to more consistently pull off clear nights with snowcover in our climate. The fact that we have record lows around 20 degrees during the heart of winter speaks to our inability to pull off patterns like this (which are so common east of the Rockies), rather than our inability at pulling off continental airmasses. 

 

I thought the 20 at SLE was decent all things considered. There is not enough snow left on the ground in that area to make a difference at that location. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 at PDX this morning is coldest January reading since 1/11/1963.

 

Dovetails nicely with the 6 degrees at MFR back on the 6th, which was their coldest January reading since 1/23/1962.

 

I never thought this day would come! 

 

Its nice to finally have January back.

[TT-SEA]

Poor Seattle. 40/25 yesterday, and 25 again this morning. Shows you the rather anemic nature of this airmass.

 

Also shows the power of snowcover. Makes me wonder how much colder the DJF record lows at PDX (or SEA) would be if were able to more consistently pull off clear nights with snowcover in our climate. The fact that we have record lows around 20 degrees during the heart of winter speaks to our inability to pull off patterns like this (which are so common east of the Rockies), rather than our inability at pulling off continental airmasses.

Posted at the same time.

[epiceast]

I was really getting stoked for single digits at PDX last night. Maybe tonight?

[BLI snowman]

11 at PDX this morning is coldest January reading since 1/11/1963.

 

Dovetails nicely with the 6 degrees at MFR back on the 6th, which was their coldest January reading since 1/23/1962.

 

I never thought this day would come! 

 

Coldest reading period since February 1989, along with 12/23/1998.

[BLI snowman]

2nd airmass to produce a record low this month at PDX. After 35 years of none doing it.

[wx_statman]

I thought the 20 at SLE was decent all things considered. There is not enough snow left on the ground in that area to make a difference at that location. 

 

Its decent, for sure. But its no 3 degrees!

[TT-SEA]

Wow is it wet next week on the 12Z ECMWF

[Timmy Supercell]

Only 9 this morning. I've seen much colder than dat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its decent, for sure. But its no 3 degrees!

 

Well yes. lol. And I wished they could have hit 19, but it is the 3rd airmass at SLE to produce a low of 20 or colder this year. 

[jakeinthevalley]

I thought the 20 at SLE was decent all things considered. There is not enough snow left on the ground in that area to make a difference at that location. 

I still have 2 inches in West Salem and got down to 16.... for the third time this season. Hoped to go lower last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow is it wet next week on the 12Z ECMWF

 

The middle of next week is going to have a lot of flooding...No way around it. Every low lying area in NW Oregon is going to fill up with water. The ground is frozen and a lot of it has quite a bit of snow, that water won't soak in, it will just run down hill. 

[wx_statman]

2nd airmass to produce a record low this month at PDX. After 35 years of none doing it.

 

When you got it going, you got it going. Feast or famine in our climate zone.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 degrees at Hillsboro is something else.

 

Yup it is! When I lived there my coldest temperature I ever experienced I think was 6 degrees In Hillsboro in Dec 2009. That was a school morning and I kept hearing a bunch of other students complaining how cold it was. I thought it was interesting that not many people had very big jackets, so I looked more prepared for it.

[wx_statman]

Well yes. lol. And I wished they could have hit 19, but it is the 3rd airmass at SLE to produce a low of 20 or colder this year. 

 

Makes me think of the increased UHI around SLE airport too. Would this have been a 15 or 16 back in the 90's? 

[Jesse]

11 at PDX this morning is coldest January reading since 1/11/1963.

 

Dovetails nicely with the 6 degrees at MFR back on the 6th, which was their coldest January reading since 1/23/1962.

 

I never thought this day would come!

I don't even know what to do with myself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I still have 2 inches in West Salem and got down to 16.... for the third time this season. Hoped to go lower last night.

If you look around at the different weather stations most spots didn't get below 15, so you did alright. Just like in December 2013, most places around Eugene were in the single digits, though the airport hit -10.

[Blizzard777]

I'm not sure my weather station is ready for 40 degree weather let only 50 next week

Been enjoying this chilly January! I may not have snow but my Waterfalls are all iced up and the drainage off my property into the street has been frozen for three weeks now! When the kids are walking to and from school they always stop by to break the Frozen river of ice and do other various things we all used to do when we were young. Makes me smile

[wx_statman]

Yup it is! When I lived there my coldest temperature I ever experienced I think was 6 degrees In Hillsboro in Dec 2009. That was a school morning and I kept hearing a bunch of other students complaining how cold it was. I thought it was interesting that not many people had very big jackets, so I looked more prepared for it.

 

Yup, lots of people in Portland don't know how to dress for winter weather! I remember HIO hit something like 4 degrees in December 1998. Too lazy to look it up right now. So today dropped below even that. 

[BLI snowman]

The middle of next week is going to have a lot of flooding...No way around it. Every low lying area in NW Oregon is going to fill up with water. The ground is frozen and a lot of it has quite a bit of snow, that water won't soak in, it will just run down hill. 

 

Doesn't look as bad as 1996 at this point at least.

 

Euro does show over 2" of warm rain in under 24 hours. Would mean bad flood.

[Timmy Supercell]

Coldest reading period since February 1989, along with 12/23/1998.

 

Coldest reading since 6 days ago here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yup, lots of people in Portland don't know how to dress for winter weather! I remember HIO hit something like 4 degrees in December 1998. Too lazy to look it up right now. So today dropped below even that. 

 

Since '09 I've owned one of those leather/wool jackets, got it from Burlington Coat Factory as a gift, think it was a $125 item (and on sale). It's come in handy all these years. And good thing it still fits so I don't have to buy another one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Makes me think of the increased UHI around SLE airport too. Would this have been a 15 or 16 back in the 90's? 

 

Probably 16-17. 

 

They had a few hours last night when they were 21 with a dp of 16 and calm winds and I kept expecting them to drop into the teens and they never did...Also a lot of the other stations around Salem were in the 16-18 range last night.

 

Growing up on a clear night SLE was always as cold or colder than our place near Silverton. Now when I ask my Dad what his low was on calm clear nights like last night, his is always 2-4 degrees colder than SLE, so it has definitely changed as the city has developed in that area. 

[wx_statman]

I don't even know what to do with myself.

 

I know! Then you start looking at the east side temps over the past month, and the near all-time record cold in places like SD back in December and the intermountain West last week...phew. Lots of exciting cold weather stats for the connoisseur. Haha

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn't look as bad as 1996 at this point at least.

 

Euro does show over 2" of warm rain in under 24 hours. Would mean bad flood.

 

No I don't think the big mainstem rivers like the Willamette will flood as badly. Less duration of heavy rain, not quite as torchy, and the torch won't last quite as long. Snow levels will be down to the passes within a couple days. 

 

Johnson Creek is going to be quite the river though.

[BLI snowman]

No I don't think the big mainstem rivers like the Willamette will flood as badly. Less duration of heavy rain, not quite as torchy, and the torch won't last quite as long. Snow levels will be down to the passes within a couple days. 

 

Johnson Creek is going to be quite the river though.

 

Yeah, some creeks could be at near record highs.  Most of those higher foothills where they originate now have 2-3' of snowpack, which is pretty comparable to where they were in early February 1996. Just not looking like as beefy of a deluge, as you said.

[BLI snowman]

PDX tracking 5 degrees colder than yesterday through 11am.

 

A subfreezing high seems pretty achievable. 

[wx_statman]

Doesn't look as bad as 1996 at this point at least.

 

Euro does show over 2" of warm rain in under 24 hours. Would mean bad flood.

 

1996 was such a perfect storm. 6 consecutive highs below freezing, followed by 4 consecutive days with 1"+ of rain (at PDX).

 

I'm working with a grad student @PSU who's studying succession ecology on the Muddy River Lahar up on St. Helens. Apparently the most destructive mudflows up there after the 1980 eruption were in Feb 1996. Kinda cool learning that. 

[IbrChris]

Yup, lots of people in Portland don't know how to dress for winter weather! I remember HIO hit something like 4 degrees in December 1998. Too lazy to look it up right now. So today dropped below even that. 

That was the coldest reading at the Hillsboro airport (where obs started in 1998) until this morning. From what I can tell this morning's low of 3 looks like the coldest temp in Hillsboro since Dec 1972.

[wx_statman]

Probably 16-17. 

 

They had a few hours last night when they were 21 with a dp of 16 and calm winds and I kept expecting them to drop into the teens and they never did...Also a lot of the other stations around Salem were in the 16-18 range last night.

 

Growing up on a clear night SLE was always as cold or colder than our place near Silverton. Now when I ask my Dad what his low was on calm clear nights like last night, his is always 2-4 degrees colder than SLE, so it has definitely changed as the city has developed in that area. 

 

I still have a hard time remembering that SLE is now a UHI location. Growing up, SLE was right there with EUG and HIO as radiational cooling rock stars.