January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

There are 7 ensemble members that drop to -10 or below over Seattle on the 18z ensemble. Getting better.

[Phil]

Lol we had a grand total of 6-7 days of snowcover in Portland this "winter"...that was winter by the standards of almost anywhere else north of 40 N latitude in the United States besides Seattle and Portland.

I think it's actually substantially more that in most places. We're below 40N and average 20+ snowcover days.

 

[snow_wizard]

I do get kind of put off by the apples and oranges of comparing our winters to other places at this latitude. We all know it kind of sucks here, but we make the most of what we get. That having been said some winters are really good by any standards.

[snow_wizard]

I think it's actually substantially more that in most places. We're below 40N and average 20+ snowcover days.

 

That map is absurdly off for parts of WA. Namely the mountains and the north half of the area east of the mountains.

[IbrChris]

I think it's actually substantially more that in most places. We're below 40N and average 20+ snowcover days.

 

 

With present climate change the <1 day line would probably go as far north as about Newport/Lincoln City, OR.

[Phil]

That map is absurdly off for parts of WA. Namely the mountains and the north half of the area east of the mountains.

Well, it isn't a high resolution map. The mountains aren't relevant to the discussion, anyway.

 

This one is a bit higher in resolution, using a 1981-2010 baseline for number of days with 1"+ on the ground.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o6746ToQIC0/U0H7hhql7tI/AAAAAAAAB2E/C-F1VywIZ_g/s1600/US_Snow_Depth_Average3B.jpg

[Jesse]

First bulb pics of the season. I saw a tree (possibly ornamental plum) starting to bloom when I was in Victoria yesterday.

 

There were bulbs coming up down here in December. Sure sign of spring then.

 

Also wanted to mention that I saw a cherry tree blooming in late November down here. Very confused tree. The cold that started the first week of December put a quick end to that though. Hopefully it blooms again come March.

 

I guess my overall point is that our normal winter climate is mild enough that many plants, (especially non-native ones) will get confused at points throughout the cold season. The fact that this is happening even this year underscores that fact, considering it has been the coldest winter to date in at least a few decades for much of the region.

 

Every year people act amazed by it though.

[IbrChris]

Well, it isn't a high resolution map. The mountains aren't relevant to the discussion, anyway.

 

This one is a bit higher in resolution, using a 1981-2010 baseline.

 

This one looks better IMO...looks like Portland averages 2-5 days with snowcover per winter.

 

Wait...I see a hole over Portland. 1-2 days a year it is then.

[IbrChris]

Would also be neat to see a map of variability of snowcover...I'm betting in some places the average was almost solely due to one or two winters with snow.

[snow_wizard]

There were bulbs coming up down here in December. Sure sign of spring then.

 

Also wanted to mention that I saw a cherry tree blooming in late November down here. Very confused tree. The cold that started the first week of December put a quick end to that though. Hopefully it blooms again come March.

 

I guess my overall point is that our normal winter climate is mild enough that many plants, (especially non-native ones) will get confused at points throughout the cold season. The fact that this is happening even this year underscores that fact, considering it has been the coldest winter to date in at least a few decades for much of the region.

 

Every year people act amazed by it though.

I'm sure the mega torch November had the bulbs almost up already.

 

The last statement you made could also be the fact some people just like to be irritating.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Those snow maps are garbage obviously put together by someone back east who knows nothing about snow levels.

[snow_wizard]

This one looks better IMO...looks like Portland averages 2-5 days with snowcover per winter.

 

Wait...I see a hole over Portland. 1-2 days a year it is then.

The numbers used to be much higher obviously. For snowfall here the past 30 years give a rather poor idea unless this is just the way it's going to be from now on.

[Phil]

This one looks better IMO...looks like Portland averages 2-5 days with snowcover per winter.

 

Wait...I see a hole over Portland. 1-2 days a year it is then.

Lol. We've only had 4 snowcover days this winter, so you guys are actually winning the snow war this year.

[IbrChris]

I'm sure the mega torch November had the bulbs almost up already.

 

The last statement you made could also be the fact some people just like to be irritating.

The torch in Nov was almost as anomalous as the ice box in Jan...I guess things have a habit of equaling out. It would take one heck of a Feb to give us a warmer than normal DJF. Don't tempt the weather gods though.

[snow_wizard]

Those snow maps are garbage obviously put together by someone back east who knows nothing about snow levels.

The 2 to 5 days of snow cover over the Olympics are certainly testimony to that. Should be more like 200.

[IbrChris]

Lol. We've only had 4 snowcover days this winter, so you guys are actually winning the snow war this year.

Yeah it has really been a disappointing year back east...at least climatologically your chances continue into April though. Realistically ours are pretty well over by mid-Feb outside of fluke events and minor shower accumulations favoring the PSCZ.

 

As much as it might anger some folks, we can almost see the end of the tunnel in the models. Not an absolute of course, I've seen flakes amount to a light dusting in March here.

[IbrChris]

The 2 to 5 days of snow cover over the Olympics are certainly testimony to that. Should be more like 200.

It's only utilizing NOAA first-order stations like PDX, SLE, EUG, SEA, etc. The contours are drawn by computer based on the data.

[Phil]

Would also be neat to see a map of variability of snowcover...I'm betting in some places the average was almost solely due to one or two winters with snow.

Yeah, our average is skewed by those big winters. A typical winter here will have ~ 15 days w/ at least 1" of snowcover, but heavy winters can maintain snowcover for months, and light winters might have 5 days or less. Varies substantially.

[Guest Dome Buster]

It's only utilizing NOAA first-order stations like PDX, SLE, EUG, SEA, etc. The contours are drawn by computer based on the data.

Low resolution garbage. 

[ShawniganLake]

Low resolution garbage.

I can't believe the glaciers aren't represented on these maps. Just ridiculous.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, our average is skewed by those big winters. A typical winter here will have ~ 15 days w/ at least 1" of snowcover, but heavy winters can maintain snowcover for months, and light winters might have 5 days or less. Varies substantially.

Within the last 10 years, Shawnigan Lake has ranged from a low of 6 to a high of about 80. Huge variations year to year.

[TT-SEA]

Within the last 10 years, Shawnigan Lake has ranged from a low of 6 to a high of about 80. Huge variations year to year.

 

 

I have managed a range of about 5 inches to over 150 inches here over the last 13 years.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I can't believe the glaciers aren't represented on these maps. Just ridiculous.

I'm sensing sarcasm, but none of those maps are even remotely close.

[Phil]

Yeah it has really been a disappointing year back east...at least climatologically your chances continue into April though. Realistically ours are pretty well over by mid-Feb outside of fluke events and minor shower accumulations favoring the PSCZ.

 

As much as it might anger some folks, we can almost see the end of the tunnel in the models. Not an absolute of course, I've seen flakes amount to a light dusting in March here.

It's comical, because I start to crave spring around the 2nd week of February, yet that's when it usually starts snowing here.

 

November and December used to perform. Not anymore.

[ShawniganLake]

I have managed a range of about 5 inches to over 150 inches here over the last 13 years.

I was talking about days with snowcover. But 150 inches is pretty impressive

[TT-SEA]

I was talking about days with snowcover. But 150 inches is pretty impressive

 

 

Ahhh... I am not sure what the range of snowcover days has been in my time here but its pretty wide as well. 

[ShawniganLake]

I'm sensing sarcasm, but none of those maps are even remotely close.

They are probably reasonable in depicting snowcover for populated areas.

[TT-SEA]

54 at SEA today... nice day with sunshine until later in the afternoon.

[Phil]

Those snow maps are garbage obviously put together by someone back east who knows nothing about snow levels.

My god. The data is fine so long as it's interpreted properly.

[Deweydog]

No snow cover here currently.

[Phil]

Within the last 10 years, Shawnigan Lake has ranged from a low of 6 to a high of about 80. Huge variations year to year.

Back in 2011/12 we only managed 4 days. Just a miserable winter. The highest I can remember is 2013/14. I lost track at some point, but we had solid snowcover most of Jan/Feb/Mar, and some in Nov/Dec/Apr too. Probably at least 90 days.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

pdx up too 47 ouch

[TT-SEA]

10 day forecast for SEA per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[snow_wizard]

Just to set the record straight PDX has had 13 days with 1" or more snow cover this winter according to the official observations. That is actually pretty decent.

[BLI snowman]

Just to set the record straight PDX has had 13 days with 1" or more snow cover this winter according to the official observations. That is actually pretty decent.

 

Only 6 or 7 days at Chris' place. Brutal.

[Front Ranger]

Lol. We've only had 4 snowcover days this winter, so you guys are actually winning the snow war this year.

 

DCA has only had 1 so far, 0 with 1".

 

PDX is absolutely kicking their a**.

[BLI snowman]

DCA has only had 1 so far, 0 with 1".

 

PDX is absolutely kicking their a**.

 

D.C. sucks and their winters are lame. 

[IbrChris]

Only 6 or 7 days at Chris' place. Brutal.

Yep...but far less ice than most of the rest of the metro, a trade-off I have no issue with.

[IbrChris]

Within the last 10 years, Shawnigan Lake has ranged from a low of 6 to a high of about 80. Huge variations year to year.

80 days of snowcover is pretty impressive.