January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

00z coming in further North through hour 102.

 

Might be setting up a nice snowstorm for Southern BC the middle of next week though.

[snow_wizard]

00z coming in further North through hour 102.

 

Might be setting up a nice snowstorm for Southern BC the middle of next week though.

This one is turning into a complete loss.

[BLI snowman]

00z coming in further North through hour 102.

 

Might be setting up a nice snowstorm for Southern BC the middle of next week though.

 

Looking similar to late February 2014, we'll see if the shortwave can dig enough to send some outflow south of the border like that one did.

[Bryant]

00z coming in further North through hour 102.

 

Might be setting up a nice snowstorm for Southern BC the middle of next week though.

The rich get richer

[bainbridgekid]

Looking similar to late February 2014, we'll see if the shortwave can dig enough to send some outflow south of the border like that one did.

I was thinking the same thing. The 00z looks very similar. Tons of precip for 2+ days straight and just enough outflow to get close to Bellingham.

 

At face value the 00z would bring 8-12" of snow to much of Whatcom County and SW BC with basically zero South of Bellingham.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z shows a major multi-day snow event over Vancouver Island, pretty similar to the 12z but much snowier than the 18z. Hopefully the surface cold will penetrate a little further south than modeled to give a good part of the Puget Sound an extended snowfall as well. The gradients stay strongly offshore until about Friday. The GFS did pretty well in the previous events but it looks like the ECMWF might be taking the lead on this one.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like Seattle may not even manage the coldest January of the century now. What a joke.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking like Seattle may not even manage the coldest January of the century now. What a joke.

December was probably better for the PNW as a whole. 11th coldest December out of 122 for Oregon at least, I doubt January will be top 20.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z shows a major multi-day snow event over Vancouver Island, pretty similar to the 12z but much snowier than the 18z. Hopefully the surface cold will penetrate a little further south than modeled to give a good part of the Puget Sound an extended snowfall as well. The gradients stay strongly offshore until about Friday. The GFS did pretty well in the previous events but it looks like the ECMWF might be taking the lead on this one.

Looking pretty likely we will be left out again. No telling exactly where the Arctic front will end up, but I'm guessing anywhere from where the 0z GFS shows to a little bit north.

[Trainwreck]

Snow wiz, we get it. But there's a hell of a lot more to life than cold anomalies and snow. You sound like the pathetic kid in school looking for a friend to hang out with that everyone hates. You need to step back and listen to yourself, what a sad and depressing life you must have if all it takes is some warmth for you to hit rock bottom. Very very weird. You make me not want to read this forum when you're not getting the weather you want. Really starting to see Tims meaning in his posts now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snow wiz, we get it. But there's a hell of a lot more to life than cold anomalies and snow. You sound like the pathetic kid in school looking for a friend to hang out with that everyone hates. You need to step back and listen to yourself, what a sad and depressing life you must have if all it takes is some warmth for you to hit rock bottom. Very very weird. You make me not want to read this forum when you're not getting the weather you want. Really starting to see Tims meaning in his posts now.

#youareclueless....

[HighlandExperience]

How snowy did Mt. Si look earlier this winter? Surprised to see basically no snow left even at 3000+ft there.

Mt Si is basically on the front range of the Cascades. The west face (which is very Rocky) is loses snow pretty fast when the sun shines on it. Plenty of snow in the WA Cascades.

[snow_wizard]

Snow wiz, we get it. But there's a hell of a lot more to life than cold anomalies and snow. You sound like the pathetic kid in school looking for a friend to hang out with that everyone hates. You need to step back and listen to yourself, what a sad and depressing life you must have if all it takes is some warmth for you to hit rock bottom. Very very weird. You make me not want to read this forum when you're not getting the weather you want. Really starting to see Tims meaning in his posts now.

No doubt this climate has ruined me. I don't deny it. Should have moved a long time ago.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looking pretty likely we will be left out again. No telling exactly where the Arctic front will end up, but I'm guessing anywhere from where the 0z GFS shows to a little bit north.

 

Sure there's still some uncertainty but at least it gives us a chance at some kind of widespread northern snowfall. The trend to another cold/dry event and gradual warmup would have completely erased our snow hopes; the trend back to a clash at least keeps the possibility alive as much as it would suck for whoever ends up south of the boundary. I'm just looking forward to finally have some substantial precipitation coinciding with a nearby cold airmass and outflow.

[snow_wizard]

#youareclueless....

I understand why he sees things that way. He has no way of understanding the layers of disappointment and bitterness I have wracked up.

[snow_wizard]

Sure there's still some uncertainty but at least it gives us a chance at some kind of widespread northern snowfall. The trend to another cold/dry event and gradual warmup would have completely erased our snow hopes; the trend back to a clash at least keeps the possibility alive as much as it would suck for whoever ends up south of the boundary. I'm just looking forward to finally have some substantial precipitation coinciding with a nearby cold airmass and outflow.

You certainly do have a realistic shot up there.

[Perturbed Member]

There was a lot of snow up there just last weekend when we drove up to the Pass.

 

It's really steep and exposed to sun and wind though, so the slopes always seem to look less snowy than it really should be.

 

Ah interesting. I was just surprised since I can still clearly see snow quite low maybe 1000ft or so on the OR coast range from my location. 

 

OR coast range in general is nowhere near that steep or as exposed though.

[HighlandExperience]

#youareclueless....

 

Exactly. Snow and cold do not rule my life, but this winter is the icing on the cake. No matter what the Puget Sound region just can't score. 

[Jesse]

Pretty stark changes on the ensembles. Next week is looking pretty mild now for the most part, at least down here. 

 

Models totally fizzled on this one. 

[BLI snowman]

Pretty stark changes on the ensembles. Next week is looking pretty mild now for the most part, at least down here. 

 

Models totally fizzled on this one. 

 

You mean the GFS?

 

Other models largely handled it fine.

[Brennan]

Snow wiz, we get it. But there's a hell of a lot more to life than cold anomalies and snow. You sound like the pathetic kid in school looking for a friend to hang out with that everyone hates. You need to step back and listen to yourself, what a sad and depressing life you must have if all it takes is some warmth for you to hit rock bottom. Very very weird. You make me not want to read this forum when you're not getting the weather you want. Really starting to see Tims meaning in his posts now.

It's sad when people judge other people's lives when they know nothing about it. It's easy to judge Tim because he basically spills out his entire life on the forum. Pictures, stories, daily devotionals of his kids lives (never once heard him mention his wife)... but I don't hate Tim nor do I have any problem with his posts as long as he's not trying to wreck Jim....anyhow... what were we talking about? Oh yeah. . I would think we're closing in on a good run of snowy years here sometime soon.

[luminen]

Pretty stark changes on the ensembles. Next week is looking pretty mild now for the most part, at least down here. 

 

Models totally fizzled on this one. 

 

Here too.

 

Winter is over brah, didn't you know? 

 

Actually, for all intents and purposes, it is. I mean, we might see a day of snowfall later in February but it's not going to be like Dec 5-Jan12 here again.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You certainly do have a realistic shot up there.

 

This city can get amazing snowfalls, but it's also plagued by Olympic snow shadowing, moisture sapping outflow winds, and exposure to mild southerly winds. We've missed out time after time, while areas just a bit to the north and east have been nailed. You may have as good a shot as I do on this one.

[snow_wizard]

Exactly. Snow and cold do not rule my life, but this winter is the icing on the cake. No matter what the Puget Sound region just can't score.

Not only that, but this climate has totally sucked balls since 1996. Two epic periods of torchy mostly snowless winters since then. The thing that really kills me with this latest snow drought is the fact we went through two utter blowtorch winters before this one and are rewarded with loads of cold and no snow this time...that coming after a solidly cold mostly snowless winter in 2013-14. I have had it. Not being able to move right away has just made it worse.

[Jesse]

You mean the GFS?

 

Other models largely handled it fine.

 

There were some decent GEM runs thrown in as well.

[Jesse]

**PDX falling through the 30s**

[Jesse]

Here too.

 

Winter is over brah, didn't you know? 

 

Actually, for all intents and purposes, it is. I mean, we might see a day of snowfall later in February but it's not going to be like Dec 5-Jan12 here again.

 

February could still have some excitement. The models went from showing nothing to something to nothing again in the last three days. At the rate they have been flip flopping, we could be tracking another event by the 31st technically.

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

**PDX falling through the 30s**

PDX has absolutely owned Seattle this month. Today was incredibly lame. At least I managed to drop below freezing here this morning.

[snow_wizard]

Don't feel bad, we appreciate your enthusiasm and love for cold and snow. Just take a deep breath. Will get our shot at some point. Watch a good movie tonight and have a glass of wine.

Thanks.

 

I just think I'm done with it here though. I'll still enjoy any snow events (if we get any) in the 5 or so years before I move. I can honestly say I won't miss it when I do leave. That didn't used to be the case.

[snow_wizard]

It's about time you've come to this conclusion. He's on mod preview for a reason

He has sunk to new levels this winter. Actually cruel in a way.

[luminen]

February could still have some excitement. The models went from showing nothing to something to nothing again in the last three days. At the rate they have been flip flopping, we could be tracking another event by the 31st technically.

 

Which is why people shouldn't ride the models so hard. Even March might provide a nice surprise. I really wouldn't be surprised if it did, whether here or Puget Sound, PDX, or Eugene.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF is quite a bit colder for the Tuesday/Wednesday period. This would certainly increase the odds for bringing some snow to the Puget Sound.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

[snow_wizard]

February could still have some excitement. The models went from showing nothing to something to nothing again in the last three days. At the rate they have been flip flopping, we could be tracking another event by the 31st technically.

Maybe. It's pretty disheartening to see the models advertising total crap during a nice MJO wave though.

[ShawniganLake]

Sure there's still some uncertainty but at least it gives us a chance at some kind of widespread northern snowfall. The trend to another cold/dry event and gradual warmup would have completely erased our snow hopes; the trend back to a clash at least keeps the possibility alive as much as it would suck for whoever ends up south of the boundary. I'm just looking forward to finally have some substantial precipitation coinciding with a nearby cold airmass and outflow.

FWIW, the 0z would drop a good 3 feet for the higher elevations in the Nanaimo area. That would be fun.

[Bryant]

Maybe. It's pretty disheartening to see the models advertising total crap during a nice MJO wave though.

Not saying things will work one way or another, but any type of wave break event will give the models trouble. We may have a window of opportunity through the 1st half of February depending how tropical forcing progresses, and even that it's not game over

[wx_statman]

Weiser, ID got a story in the Washington Post.

 

4+ feet of snow in the last five weeks and roof collapses all over town. Interesting that one of the NWS Boise mets mentioned 1948-49 as the closest parallel to this winter. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/01/26/a-lot-of-scared-people-relentless-snow-collapses-hundreds-of-roofs-in-idaho-devastates-rural-county/?utm_term=.0d6e43aa0236

[VancouverIslandSouth]

FWIW, the 0z would drop a good 3 feet for the higher elevations in the Nanaimo area. That would be fun.

 

Yep, it looks like 3 solid days of snow for Nanaimo on there. The ECMWF looks even better for the region as a whole, your area and possibly even Victoria would be slammed. Depending on the details a good part of the central/northern Puget Sound would get hit as well.

[snow_wizard]

Just absolutely mind blowing to compare the PDX records to SEA this month. Totally insane difference.

 

It's really odd the last 3 decently cold Januaries 1979, 1993, and this one were all much colder at PDX than SEA. The last one where SEA did a lot better was 1972. I can't figure out why we can't get a good solid Fraser River blast in January anymore.

[BLI snowman]

There were some decent GEM runs thrown in as well.

 

GFS is actually the warmest model at the moment. Awful consistency from it.