January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[IbrChris]

Analysis of January 2017 temps for Portland, OR

 

 

Data sources:

 

Actual High/Low for Jan 1-20

NWS forecast for Jan 21-28

Ensemble mean forecast for Jan 29-31

 

Projected final mean high: 38.4

Projected final mean low: 27.8

Projected final monthly mean temp: 33.1 (normal 40.9)

Projected final mean temp departure: -7.8

 

How does the projected monthly mean temp compare to past Januaries at PDX (1940-present):

 

1950: 27.0

1949: 27.8

1979: 30.7

1957: 31.2

1969: 31.9

2017: 33.1, 6th coldest

1943: 33.2

1963: 35.0

1980: 35.1

1960: 35.4

1942: 35.4

 

Some interesting statistics about January 2017:

• 6th coldest January in the PDX era (1940-present)
• Coldest January since 1979
• 8.4" snow, snowiest January since 1998 (8.5")
• Mean temp (33.1) coldest for any month since December 1985 (33.0)
• Mean high (38.4) coldest for any month since January 1979 (35.4)
• Mean low (27.8) coldest for any month since December 1985 (26.8)
• Coldest January day (high 28) since 2004 (24) and coldest day since February 2014 (23)
• Coldest January night (low 11) since 1963 (11) and coldest night since December 1998 (11)

All-in-all a remarkable month!

Only off by 0.1 F considering data through Jan 29th.

 

33.1 predicted

33.2 actual as of Jan 29th.

33.6 final value assuming NWS forecast is correct today/tomorrow.

 

No change as far as it being coldest month since Dec 1985 and coldest Jan since 1979.

[Perturbed Member]

The deformation band doesn't look very impressive anymore on the NAM. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013012/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_47.png

 

12z WRF

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017013012/images_d2/or_snow48.84.0000.gif

 

 

Pretty sure this will all play out a bit different from what the models are showing anyway. They often seem to struggle with these bands. 

[Phil]

Oh philbert

Can't help myself

[IbrChris]

It looks pretty warm on the ~10th.

gfs_T2m_nwus_42.png

Looking forward to our first 60 of the New Year!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I was going to say, looking at the models a 60+ reading in the first couple weeks of the new month looks likely. Average first 60 at PDX is Feb. 13th, so tis' the season.

[Jesse]

Today could end up pretty chilly, PDX still holding at 38 with heavy overcast.

[epiceast]

The band is trending to be weaker on all models atm except the GEM. I guess we still need to see what the Euro looks like.

[IbrChris]

Yeah I was going to say, looking at the models a 60+ reading in the first couple weeks of the new month looks likely. Average first 60 at PDX is Feb. 13th, so tis' the season.

Daffodil alert!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Daffodil alert!

As my dad would say...The Daffy's are blooming!

[Deweydog]

As my dad would say...The Daffy's are blooming!

My dad would say "shut the **** up about the daffodils! It's the middle of inversion season!"

[ShawniganLake]

Big shift in the 12Z Euro.  North sound looks snowy for the weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow

[Jesse]

Big shift in the 12Z Euro. North sound looks snowy for the weekend.

Will the shift in the Euro at days 5-6 put the low 60s 11 days out in jeopardy?!?

[ShawniganLake]

Friday-Saturday.  Seattle south ~2".  Seattle north to Vancouver 2-6"

[MossMan]

Friday-Saturday.  Seattle south ~2".  Seattle north to Vancouver 2-6"

Its a February miracle! 

[Jesse]

Its a February miracle!

The sun and warmth is feeling a little rejected right now...

 

It had its bags packed and was getting ready to migrate up at your request.

[ShawniganLake]

Will the shift in the Euro at days 5-6 put the low 60s 11 days out in jeopardy?!?

850s around -5C at day 9, so probably. 

[epiceast]

100 miles east on the Euro on day 5 and it's a daddy blast.

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-2bbPpJ.png

[TT-SEA]

The HRRR and the WRF are totally dry up here tomorrow.   The 12Z ECMWF is quite wet... particularly for King County.

 

Could be a rather low snow level.

 

I would bet a large sum of money that the HRRR and WRF are wrong... as usual whenever they disagree with the superior ECMWF.

[Jesse]

Wow, this Euro run is just worlds better than the GFS days 5-10.

 

Keeps the blocking ridge stronger and thus limits the undercutting.

 

Would be really nice if this were the start of a trend.

[ShawniganLake]

850s around -5C at day 9, so probably. 

Big surge of warmth at day 10 though. 

[HighlandExperience]

Friday-Saturday. Seattle south ~2". Seattle north to Vancouver 2-6"

Someone post snowmap

[Jesse]

Big surge of warmth at day 10 though.

Dang, and I just called everyone and cancelled the picnic.

[Jesse]

What's weird is that none of the GFS ensembles even seem to be hinting at what the Euro is showing.

 

How was the Canadian?

[TT-SEA]

Someone post snowmap

 

12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run.  This mostly on Friday and Saturday.

 

[ShawniganLake]

What's weird is that none of the GFS ensembles even seem to be hinting at what the Euro is showing.

 

How was the Canadian?

Similar to the Euro.  North sound snow late this week.  cooler than the gfs through day 9/10.  Couple of marginal snow chances for northern areas. 

[Phil]

Wow, 12z Euro throws the PV into full-on wave-2 pressure.

 

Wave-1 downwell meets wave-2 upwell..tears the dominant NAM state apart.

[Jesse]

Similar to the Euro. North sound snow late this week. cooler than the gfs through day 9/10. Couple of marginal snow chances for northern areas.

Nice. Glad to hear it. Hopefully February 1-10 rocks for Olympia north.

[HighlandExperience]

12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run. This mostly on Friday and Saturday.

 

Improvement over last nights run. Hope this continues. Still a week out.

[TT-SEA]

Improvement over last nights run. Hope this continues. Still a week out.

 

 

Actually... Friday is only 4 days away.

[HighlandExperience]

[epiceast]

12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run.  This mostly on Friday and Saturday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Happy Birthday to my distant relation  Rod Hill.

[Jesse]

Happy Birthday to my distant relation Rod Hill.

He totally nailed the 53 and 54 at PDX this weekend!

[Heavy Snow]

The 12z NAVGEM looks interesting. It shows a deformation band set up over PDX Wednesday afternoon. Then Thursday night into Friday more moisture comes and most of the Willamette Valley is below the 540 line. Then the system heads north giving everybody up there some snow/ice as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_10.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_19.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run. This mostly on Friday and Saturday.

 

I can hardly contain my excitement! Second trace of snow for the year. #overperform.

[Jesse]

Some noticeable steps toward keeping the northern stream stronger mid-long range on the 12z Euro ensemble mean.

[Bryant]

The Euro just had to step in and give us northern folks some hope... I had my mind made up winter was over damnit

[HighlandExperience]

The Euro just had to step in and give us northern folks some hope... I had my mind made up winter was over damnit

Glimmer of hope. I hope this can trend even better for central Sound in the home stretch.

[Chewbacca Defense]

The Euro just had to step in and give us northern folks some hope... I had my mind made up winter was over damnit

 

I have to disagree!  What the Euro tells me is that Portland is going to get even more snow this weekend.  And it's going to be even more epic-er than the January event.

 

 

Dare I say...it will be YUUUUGEE!!!!  Biggest Snowstorm ever!  1.5 million inches!