IbrChris Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Analysis of January 2017 temps for Portland, OR Data sources: Actual High/Low for Jan 1-20NWS forecast for Jan 21-28Ensemble mean forecast for Jan 29-31 Projected final mean high: 38.4Projected final mean low: 27.8Projected final monthly mean temp: 33.1 (normal 40.9)Projected final mean temp departure: -7.8 How does the projected monthly mean temp compare to past Januaries at PDX (1940-present): 1950: 27.01949: 27.81979: 30.71957: 31.21969: 31.92017: 33.1, 6th coldest1943: 33.21963: 35.01980: 35.11960: 35.41942: 35.4 Some interesting statistics about January 2017:6th coldest January in the PDX era (1940-present)Coldest January since 19798.4" snow, snowiest January since 1998 (8.5")Mean temp (33.1) coldest for any month since December 1985 (33.0)Mean high (38.4) coldest for any month since January 1979 (35.4)Mean low (27.8) coldest for any month since December 1985 (26.8)Coldest January day (high 28) since 2004 (24) and coldest day since February 2014 (23)Coldest January night (low 11) since 1963 (11) and coldest night since December 1998 (11)All-in-all a remarkable month!Only off by 0.1 F considering data through Jan 29th. 33.1 predicted33.2 actual as of Jan 29th.33.6 final value assuming NWS forecast is correct today/tomorrow. No change as far as it being coldest month since Dec 1985 and coldest Jan since 1979. 3 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The deformation band doesn't look very impressive anymore on the NAM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013012/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_47.png 12z WRF http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017013012/images_d2/or_snow48.84.0000.gif Pretty sure this will all play out a bit different from what the models are showing anyway. They often seem to struggle with these bands. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Oh philbertCan't help myself Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 It looks pretty warm on the ~10th.gfs_T2m_nwus_42.pngLooking forward to our first 60 of the New Year! 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Yeah I was going to say, looking at the models a 60+ reading in the first couple weeks of the new month looks likely. Average first 60 at PDX is Feb. 13th, so tis' the season. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Today could end up pretty chilly, PDX still holding at 38 with heavy overcast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The band is trending to be weaker on all models atm except the GEM. I guess we still need to see what the Euro looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Yeah I was going to say, looking at the models a 60+ reading in the first couple weeks of the new month looks likely. Average first 60 at PDX is Feb. 13th, so tis' the season.Daffodil alert! 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Daffodil alert!As my dad would say...The Daffy's are blooming! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 As my dad would say...The Daffy's are blooming!My dad would say "shut the **** up about the daffodils! It's the middle of inversion season!" 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Big shift in the 12Z Euro. North sound looks snowy for the weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Wow Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Big shift in the 12Z Euro. North sound looks snowy for the weekend.Will the shift in the Euro at days 5-6 put the low 60s 11 days out in jeopardy?!? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Friday-Saturday. Seattle south ~2". Seattle north to Vancouver 2-6" 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Friday-Saturday. Seattle south ~2". Seattle north to Vancouver 2-6"Its a February miracle! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Its a February miracle!The sun and warmth is feeling a little rejected right now... It had its bags packed and was getting ready to migrate up at your request. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Will the shift in the Euro at days 5-6 put the low 60s 11 days out in jeopardy?!?850s around -5C at day 9, so probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 100 miles east on the Euro on day 5 and it's a daddy blast.http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-2bbPpJ.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The HRRR and the WRF are totally dry up here tomorrow. The 12Z ECMWF is quite wet... particularly for King County. Could be a rather low snow level. I would bet a large sum of money that the HRRR and WRF are wrong... as usual whenever they disagree with the superior ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Wow, this Euro run is just worlds better than the GFS days 5-10. Keeps the blocking ridge stronger and thus limits the undercutting. Would be really nice if this were the start of a trend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 850s around -5C at day 9, so probably. Big surge of warmth at day 10 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Friday-Saturday. Seattle south ~2". Seattle north to Vancouver 2-6"Someone post snowmap 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Big surge of warmth at day 10 though.Dang, and I just called everyone and cancelled the picnic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 What's weird is that none of the GFS ensembles even seem to be hinting at what the Euro is showing. How was the Canadian? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Someone post snowmap 12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run. This mostly on Friday and Saturday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 What's weird is that none of the GFS ensembles even seem to be hinting at what the Euro is showing. How was the Canadian?Similar to the Euro. North sound snow late this week. cooler than the gfs through day 9/10. Couple of marginal snow chances for northern areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Wow, 12z Euro throws the PV into full-on wave-2 pressure. Wave-1 downwell meets wave-2 upwell..tears the dominant NAM state apart. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Similar to the Euro. North sound snow late this week. cooler than the gfs through day 9/10. Couple of marginal snow chances for northern areas.Nice. Glad to hear it. Hopefully February 1-10 rocks for Olympia north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run. This mostly on Friday and Saturday. Improvement over last nights run. Hope this continues. Still a week out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Improvement over last nights run. Hope this continues. Still a week out. Actually... Friday is only 4 days away. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run. This mostly on Friday and Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Happy Birthday to my distant relation Rod Hill. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Happy Birthday to my distant relation Rod Hill.He totally nailed the 53 and 54 at PDX this weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The 12z NAVGEM looks interesting. It shows a deformation band set up over PDX Wednesday afternoon. Then Thursday night into Friday more moisture comes and most of the Willamette Valley is below the 540 line. Then the system heads north giving everybody up there some snow/ice as well. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_10.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017013012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 12Z ECMWF is much snowier than its 00Z run. This mostly on Friday and Saturday. I can hardly contain my excitement! Second trace of snow for the year. #overperform. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Some noticeable steps toward keeping the northern stream stronger mid-long range on the 12z Euro ensemble mean. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The Euro just had to step in and give us northern folks some hope... I had my mind made up winter was over damnit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The Euro just had to step in and give us northern folks some hope... I had my mind made up winter was over damnit Glimmer of hope. I hope this can trend even better for central Sound in the home stretch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 The Euro just had to step in and give us northern folks some hope... I had my mind made up winter was over damnit I have to disagree! What the Euro tells me is that Portland is going to get even more snow this weekend. And it's going to be even more epic-er than the January event. Dare I say...it will be YUUUUGEE!!!! Biggest Snowstorm ever! 1.5 million inches! 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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