January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

 

I really would not care much at all if I had received no snow this winter... all else being equal. Give me snow on Christmas Day and nothing else and I would be happy.

 

I had almost nothing in 2013-14... and Eugene ended up with maybe 10 times as much as in my backyard and thought it was more fascinating than depressing.

Snow at your location is not a novelty. Some years are better than others, but generally it's part of life to an extent.

 

For the mass majority of people here that is not the case. Perspective.

[TT-SEA]

Snow at your location is not a novelty. Some years are better than others, but generally it's part of life to an extent.

 

For the mass majority of people here that is not the case. Perspective.

 

 

I would feel the same way if I lived in Bellevue or Issaquah.    We have toyed with the idea of buying a house on Lake Sammamish and that is a terrible spot for snow... worse than Jim's location I believe.   We lived in San Diego for 12 years and never really missed snow and cold.    We missed a green landscape and trees... but not snow.   

 

It is what it is though.   If its the most important thing in your life then pick wisely.   

[snow_wizard]

The cold is all gone now except right at the Gorge. Even Ferndale got up to 56 today.

[TT-SEA]

The cold is all gone now except right at the Gorge. Even Ferndale got up to 56 today.

 

 

18 degrees at Snoqualmie Pass with what appears to be an insane amount of sleet.   The pass is closed.

 

[Deweydog]

I would feel the same way if I lived in Bellevue or Issaquah. We have toyed with the idea of buying a house on Lake Sammamish and that is a terrible spot for snow... worse than Jim's location I believe. We lived in San Diego for 12 years and never really missed snow and cold. We missed a green landscape and trees... but not snow.

 

It is what it is though. If its the most important thing in your life then pick wisely.

Seems weird that a guy who doesn't care a whole lot about snow and despises dank, drizzly weather would move to the King County foothills.

[TT-SEA]

Seems weird that a guy who doesn't care a whole lot about snow and despises dank, drizzly weather would move to the King County foothills.

 

 

But we love it here nonetheless.    We had no idea how good this spot was for snow when we bought the lot.   It was not a factor.      We loved the scenery and being away from the city but close enough to have all the benefits of a metro area.    It has never disappointed in that regard.   We are still in awe all the time with the natural beauty here.  My wife said she still appreciates the beauty every afternoon on her commute home down I-90 from Bellevue.       

 

We have adjusted to the rainy reality.    It does not matter much from the middle of October through March.   And I actually would prefer to be out here in those months because of our exposure to offshore flow despite the higher rainfall totals.  There are days in the late spring and early summer when its a bummer but if Lake Washington is warm and sunny then that is where we go... and we can easily hop over to the east side as well.   That has become a weekend routine for us in May and June when its bad here.  Just have to adjust.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I long ago realized I could never live somewhere it never snowed. 

[TT-SEA]

I long ago realized I could never live somewhere it never snowed. 

 

 

You picked wisely based on what is important to you.  

[Deweydog]

But we love it here nonetheless. We had no idea how good this spot was for snow when we bought the lot. It was not a factor. We loved the scenery and being away from the city but close enough to have all the benefits of a metro area. It has never disappointed in that regard. We are still in awe all the time with the natural beauty here. My wife said she still appreciates the beauty every afternoon on her commute home down I-90 from Bellevue.

 

We have adjusted to the rainy reality. It does not matter much from the middle of October through March. And I actually would prefer to be out here in those months because of our exposure to offshore flow despite the higher rainfall totals. There are days in the late spring and early summer when its a bummer but if Lake Washington is warm and sunny then that is where we go... and we can easily hop over to the east side as well. That has become a weekend routine for us in May and June when its bad here. Just have to adjust.

Maybe it wasn't such a good spot for snow before the cold phase started in 2006.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You picked wisely based on what is important to you.  

 

It was definitely intentional. I was in negotiations on a house in Stayton when this place came back on the market, and I offered immediately. Fortunate it worked out that way too as Stayton is a pretty bad location for snow despite having a little elevation on most towns in the Willamette Valley. 

[Jesse]

It was definitely intentional. I was in negotiations on a house in Stayton when this place came back on the market, and I offered immediately. Fortunate it worked out that way too as Stayton is a pretty bad location for snow despite having a little elevation on most towns in the Willamette Valley. 

 

Interesting. Definitely a different world down there climate wise. Isn't that close to the North Fork of the Santiam?

[Jesse]

PDX holding tough at 32. C'mon little guy, you can do it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting. Definitely a different world down there climate wise. Isn't that close to the North Fork of the Santiam?

Yes the river is the southern border of town. It is a nice town. And very affordable. The house I was looking at was 4bd 2.5 bath and 2300 square feet, built in 2005, I think it ended up selling for 165K. That was about the bottom of the market, but still...

[Jesse]

This is saying PDX hit 44 today. Is that even possible?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

[Deweydog]

Snow wasn't in any way a consideration when we moved out here in 2010. It was all about the money, money, money...

[Deweydog]

This is saying PDX hit 44 today. Is that even possible?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

-3.

 

Chilly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is saying PDX hit 44 today. Is that even possible?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

Still 3 degrees below average! Seems suspect...

[Jesse]

Still 3 degrees below average! Seems suspect...

 

Maybe the inversion shallowed for a millisecond?

 

Nothing on the 5-minute obs!

[wx_statman]

Maybe the inversion shallowed for a millisecond?

 

Nothing on the 5-minute obs!

 

Its bogus. I've noticed that sort of thing happening from time to time. It should be correct once the F6 data is posted tomorrow.

 

Even UAO hasn't risen above 37 on hourlies. 

[Jesse]

Its bogus. I've noticed that sort of thing happening from time to time. It should be correct once the F6 data is posted tomorrow.

 

Even UAO hasn't risen above 37 on hourlies. 

 

Perhaps. I remember something similar happening with a low of 49 at the beginning of September. Took about a day for them to fix it.

[TT-SEA]

Perhaps. I remember something similar happening with a low of 49 at the beginning of September. Took about a day for them to fix it.

 

 

I was going to mention that... I remember that one.   It was so obviously wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like the wind must of knocked my thermometer into the snow. Temp dropped from 45 to 39...Seems pretty bogus...

[Deweydog]

Rain's coming at us like a b*tch out there tonight!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

La Grande may not get the cold like some of the other spots in E. Oregon like BKE and BNO, but dang they get some wind!

 

GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...COVE...ELGIN...LA GRANDE
1045 AM PST TUE JAN 17 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PENDLETON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...COVE...ELGIN...LA GRANDE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE ROADWAYS VERY HAZARDOUS.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS...PLUS THE WINDS...CAN CAUSE DOWNED TREE LIMBS
AND POWER LINES.

* WINDS...SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

[MossMan]

I would feel the same way if I lived in Bellevue or Issaquah. We have toyed with the idea of buying a house on Lake Sammamish and that is a terrible spot for snow... worse than Jim's location I believe. We lived in San Diego for 12 years and never really missed snow and cold. We missed a green landscape and trees... but not snow.

 

It is what it is though. If its the most important thing in your life then pick wisely.

I have the perfect solution...rent or sell your house to Jim when you move onto Lake Sammamish...Jim gets tons of snow and you can walk out onto your dock, hop in your boat and enjoy the water in the summer!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm warning for 8-15" of snow in the Baker Valley. May briefly turn to rain tomorrow evening before turning back to snow Thursday...

[wx_statman]

Rain's coming at us like a b*tch out there tonight!!!

 

B*tches generally don't come at me like that. 

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is advertising a major inversion pattern for week two.  Also a complete absence of low pressure over the NE Pacific as we get later into week 2.  That usually means good things coming up.  The inversion should ice it for this to be the coldest January since 1993.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have to say the pattern at the surface in E. Oregon and Washington is going to be cold through the end of the month. That glancing blow of chilly air this weekend probably sets up some pretty intense valley/basin inversions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given I am usually a bit below the inversion line, tomorrow is probably my only shot at 50 this month...

[Deweydog]

00z tells me us weenies can catch up on rest for a week or two.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z tells me us weenies can catch up on rest for a week or two.

At least I won't miss out on any exciting winter weather while I am out of state this time. Looking dry and cool while I am out on the Southern Plains. 

[snow_wizard]

00z tells me us weenies can catch up on rest for a week or two.

Yeah, but it appears a retrogression is probably in the cards. The ECMWF ensemble has been advertising it and some GFS runs. Even this GFS has some good aspects at the end of the run. Mostly above normal heights to our NW in spite of a ridge (possibly suspect) still over us.

 

I'm glad it's still early enough for a good foggy inversion next week. Surface gradients are perfect for a good one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, but it appears a retrogression is probably in the cards. The ECMWF ensemble has been advertising it and some GFS runs. Even this GFS has some good aspects at the end of the run. Mostly above normal heights to our NW in spite of a ridge (possibly suspect) still over us.

 

I'm glad it's still early enough for a good foggy inversion next week. Surface gradients are perfect for a good one.

 

Be prepared for Tim to post tons of pics of sunny skies if a foggy inversion does not develop lol. I can see it now. 

 

Pretty good chance his kids will be water skiing on Lake Sammish if things break his way.

[Jesse]

I have to say the pattern at the surface in E. Oregon and Washington is going to be cold through the end of the month. That glancing blow of chilly air this weekend probably sets up some pretty intense valley/basin inversions.

 

I was thinking the same thing. I wonder what kind of dent today's system is putting in basin snow cover.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was thinking the same thing. I wonder what kind of dent today's system is putting in basin snow cover.

 

Well 0 at this point. Still freezing rain or sleet out there...If anything I guess that could make it tougher to melt. My brother says he has about 1/4" of sleet with a glaze of ZR so far in The Dalles. As mentioned places like Burns and Baker City are actually expecting a ton of snow, a brief period of rain possible tomorrow night then back to snow as cooler air aloft moves in. I looked at the 7 day forecast for Baker City and Thursday's forecast high of 30 is their warmest forecast high in the next week...

[Deweydog]

Yeah, but it appears a retrogression is probably in the cards. The ECMWF ensemble has been advertising it and some GFS runs. Even this GFS has some good aspects at the end of the run. Mostly above normal heights to our NW in spite of a ridge (possibly suspect) still over us.

 

I'm glad it's still early enough for a good foggy inversion next week. Surface gradients are perfect for a good one.

My point is it looks like a pretty benign, low-impact period coming up. It's been since November that we've had such a phone-it-in period. Quite a run of pit-stained analysis.

[TT-SEA]

Be prepared for Tim to post tons of pics of sunny skies if a foggy inversion does not develop lol. I can see it now. 

 

Pretty good chance his kids will be water skiing on Lake Sammish if things break his way.

 

I think it looks like a foggy inversion pattern as well... sometimes it ends up being just a hazy sun inversion but either way the result is the same.  

 

When does the inversion season end?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it looks like a foggy inversion pattern as well... sometimes its just a hazy sun inversion but either way the result is the same.  

 

 I was joking btw...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually some interesting ensembles there toward the end.