January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Brennan]

55*F and blowing like a futhermucked here in Bellingham. I forgot what normal winter weather was like here. Had the baby sleeping in the stroller out on the deck earlier. Those little guys love the fresh air.

[stuffradio]

Yeah, that got pretty bad. I really hope the silly restaurant analogies didn't seriously offend anyone.

Nor my peas.

[Brennan]

Waves of ice chunks blowing ashore on the North Shore of Lake Whatcom. Pretty facinating.

[crf450ish]

Before this degrades any further…

 

It’s a big region.  Some people had great winters; some had great disappointment.  Some people like cold; to others it’s all about the snow. 

 

You are all free to share your likes and dislikes about what happened in your backyard.  Don’t pile on people for having different likes or preferences than your own.

 

By the way, today is January 17th.  The window is not anywhere near closed.

No kidding......

 

Let it warm up and melt the ice dams on my roof......

 

And then let it get bitterly cold again with some snow...

 

[Deweydog]

There was quite a bit of ice flowing along the north side of the river as I crossed the I-5 bridge this morning. First time I've seen that since '96.

[Prairiedog]

Baseball season is just around the corner!

Feb 14th for the M's, pitchers and catchers. Position players report on the 20th!

[Jesse]

Quite a bit of precipitation moving in now. PDX still at 29...

[stuffradio]

This is how icy it got on the Fraser.

 

[Phil]

Consensus is that the PV takes a major blow, but lives to fight another day.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011712&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=521

[Jesse]

Consensus is that the PV takes a major blow, but lives to fight another day.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011712&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=521

 

Will the blow be strong enough to deliver anything for us?

[Deweydog]

Quite a bit of precipitation moving in now. PDX still at 29...

Some surprise freezing rain???

[Jesse]

Some surprise freezing rain???

 

Maybe for those who thought we'd hit 34 today!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe for those who thought we'd hit 34 today!

 

10 hours 33 minutes to.

[Phil]

Will the blow be strong enough to deliver anything for us?

The Alaskan block will redevelop during the first week of February, given the tropical forcings. That's a safe bet, IMO.

 

However, whether or not the blocking regime can complete the full retrogression cycle remains to be seen. If the vortex/u-wind integral is too strong, you risk broadening the sub-polar anticyclones and overturning the block, leading to more western ridging and Hudson Bay Vortex/+NAO.

[Deweydog]

Maybe for those who thought we'd hit 34 today!

Day ain't over yet...

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now reached freezing. I'm not sure about today starting with showers then later progressing to snow. Based on history on the east slopes, up to about 36-38 degrees I have a higher chance of seeing flakes than rain. Only seen 33 degree rain like once.

[Front Ranger]

No one is expecting it to look inspiring at that timeframe

Late January was the original vague call floating around. It's been pushed to early February now.

[Jesse]

Late January was the original vague call floating around. It's been pushed to early February now.

 

I wish you would just tell us what will happen already! We all know you know!!

[Front Ranger]

As much as the homer in me hates to say it, the extreme cold in the Portland area has been a pretty localized phenomenon thanks to perfect timing and snowcover. Regionally the cold has been pretty on par with 1992-93. Maybe a notch or two colder.

In January, yes.

 

December was considerably colder this winter regionally.

[BLI snowman]

Late January was the original vague call floating around. It's been pushed to early February now.

 

Mid February. Possibly mid to late.

[Front Ranger]

I wish you would just tell us what will happen already! We all know you know!!

I posted a winter forecast...

[Phil]

Late January was the original vague call floating around. It's been pushed to early February now.

Who made that call? I only stated the +EPO would break down at the end of January, which it is. I never suggested the longwave pattern would immediately favor cold.

 

I do think (and have always thought) the first week of February is the best opportunity for another Arctic shot in the west. After that, other factors begin to weigh on chances.

[BLI snowman]

[Front Ranger]

Who made that call? I only stated the +EPO would break down at the end of January, which it is. I never suggested the longwave pattern would immediately favor cold.

 

I do think (and have always thought) the first week of February is the best opportunity for another Arctic shot in the west. After that, other factors begin to weigh on chances.

Wasn't just you...bunch of people floated ideas around for the latter half of January, since mid December. I don't keep track exactly of who says what, but that idea has been persistently prevalent.

[Jesse]

Wasn't just you...bunch of people floated ideas around for the latter half of January, since mid December. I don't keep track exactly of who says what, but that idea has been persistently prevalent.

 

Except for Flatiron who knows we will get hit on ____________________.

[Phil]

Wasn't just you...bunch of people floated ideas around for the latter half of January, since mid December. I don't keep track exactly of who says what, but that idea has been persistently prevalent.

Definitely not me..anyone in particular? Might want to avoid calling people out unless you're confident enough to identify them, as I don't think anyone would have made a down-to-the-week prediction months in advance.

 

I will say, though, that the predictions for the breakdown of the +EPO regime in late January turned out to be correct. That's all I've seen predicted.

[Jesse]

Here was his forecast-

 

Well that doesn't fill in my blank very well. I need dates and times!

[Jesse]

**PDX down to 28**

[Phil]

Here was his forecast-

 

Can't blame him for the -NAO/-NAM call, I missed it too. Slew of poorly timed solar wind/geomag blasts are responsible for the bust there..easily discernible in the thermal/O^3 data. February will run a -NAM if the stratospheric perturbations verify, but that's a big "if", and requires ideal precursory wavetrain.

 

The Niña regime has been weaker/more unstable than many expected, so while we've seen flashes of the typical Niña/+QBO circulation when intraseasonal forcings aligned w/ the background state, there have been periodic bifurcations in the forcing and a bunch of pattern swings.

[Deweydog]

**PDX down to 30**

[Blizzard777]

33 degrees lake Oswego

Breeze from the east

Freezing rain on trees at this time

[dairyd]

Impressive rain shadow

 

[wx_statman]

Plain old rain @ NE 46th avenue. Surprising!

[Jesse]

Plain old rain @ NE 46th avenue. Surprising!

We are seeing some light icing on the trees so far but nothing terrible. Sitting at 31.9 here.

 

I think we are just far enough north of the river to dodge the bullet. The 29-30 degree cold seems to be confined to a relatively shallow area right along the Columbia.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother is reporting 20 with some light rain at The Dalles.

[Deweydog]

My brother is reporting 20 with some light rain at The Dalles.

Is it freezing rain???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is it freezing rain???

 

It may be freezing on contact with some surfaces!

[Deweydog]

No downslope issues today!

[wx_statman]

We are seeing some light icing on the trees so far but nothing terrible. Sitting at 31.9 here.

 

I think we are just far enough north of the river to dodge the bullet. The 29-30 degree cold seems to be confined to a relatively shallow area right along the Columbia.

 

I'm starting to see very small icicles forming on a wooden overhang. Its been pouring rain for a while...I'm guessing we're right around 32 here. 

[wx_statman]

Now that I look closer, I'm seeing a neat row of small icicles on a powerline. Its trying!