January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Actually some interesting ensembles there toward the end.

Hmm. SE ridge too!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This looks somewhat interesting, even if it is a bit on the warm side. Could mean wet snow for some northern areas and pretty stormy conditions for coastal areas if it came to pass.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011800/gfs_T850_nwus_23.png

[luminen]

got almost 3" of rain today. 

[Jesse]

Actually some interesting ensembles there toward the end.

One could say this is progressing exactly as we would hope at this stage.

[Front Ranger]

I just can't come to grips with suffering through 3 years of torching and then being denied snow in one of the colder Dec - mid Jan periods on record. Unimaginably frustrating.

 

I hear ya. As flukey as it gets.

 

But as was the case for Portland...one big storm can change everything. This winter may still redeem itself for you, regardless of what it could have been if everything worked out perfectly.

[Front Ranger]

I long ago realized I could never live somewhere it never snowed. 

 

Agreed. San Diego, Miami, New Orleans, Puyallup...could never do it.

[Phil]

Game on!! Haha.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DE1482B3-AAE1-488F-BC5D-C86CE1CE76D0_zpslnv0wa9q.png

[BLI snowman]

Agreed. San Diego, Miami, New Orleans, Puyallup...could never do it.

It can snow in New Orleans. December 1963 was niiice.

[Phil]

Epic anticyclonic wavebreak/developing -EPO on the LR Canadian, with the PV far away over Eurasia. Looks like the entire NPAC/W-Canada domain is an unobstructed surf zone.

[BLI snowman]

One could say this is progressing exactly as we would hope at this stage.

February 8 will be bonkers.

[Front Ranger]

Epic anticyclonic wavebreak/developing -EPO on the LR Canadian, with the PV far away over Eurasia. Looks like the entire NPAC/W-Canada domain is an unobstructed surf zone.

 

[Front Ranger]

It can snow in New Orleans. December 1963 was niiice.

 

Depressing. Something your weenie appetite would never taste again, if you kept living there.

[wx_statman]

It can snow in New Orleans. December 1963 was niiice.

 

A Nino special.

 

Personally, I would take Feb 1895. Or 1899. 

[BLI snowman]

A Nino special.

 

Personally, I would take Feb 1895. Or 1899.

They even had a little in December 2008. Also the last time Puyallup had snow, I believe.

[wx_statman]

They even had a little in December 2008. Also the last time Puyallup had snow, I believe.

 

I believe the first part. Not the second...seems too recent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 at PDX. Dewey wins again.

[wx_statman]

34 at PDX. Dewey wins again.

 

I bet its really only 33. Intra-hour obs have C to F rounding issues

[Dave]

50 degrees and rain here.  No idea how long it has been since that has happened, but such a normally regular occurrence has been quite rare this winter.  Feels warm.  My snow is all but gone 

[snow_wizard]

A few very cold ensemble members showing up now. Let's hope something is able to come together for early February. At ANY RATE THE ECMWF IS VERY MUCH ON BOARD FOR A big inversion next week. Looks like it could be a good one.

 

Another very interesting thing to note on the models is the amazing lack of cold air over the Eastern half of the country about 5 or 6 days from now. Even a huge chunk of SE Canada has 850s above zero. That could be a good thing after the block retrogrades there could be a treasure trove of cold air to tap into for us.

[snow_wizard]

Ironically I'm now one of the cooler places around tonight. Only 42 degrees. Still pretty unlikely it will go without hitting 50 here at some point over the next 2 or 3 days.

[Bryant]

South wind is always noticeable here, as it's the only direction I'm not sheltered from. Otherwise it's generally always calm here

[Dave]

For some dumb reason, it never occurred to me that the reason why it felt so freezing cold at 65 degrees inside my house when it was 10 degrees outside was that there was a super low dew point.  Now that the DP has gone way up, 65 degree inside temp feels fine.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is looking pretty chilly again early next week with lows shown below freezing again. Can't emphasize enough how perfect it's looking for a major inversion next week. This could be a solidly cold month when all is said and done. Still liking our chances for early Feb.

[Bryant]

The WRF is looking pretty chilly again early next week with lows shown below freezing again. Can't emphasize enough how perfect it's looking for a major inversion next week. This could be a solidly cold month when all is said and done. Still liking our chances for early Feb.

Feeling better about early Feb after seeing ensembles hint at the Alaskan ridge?

[Phil]

Another very interesting thing to note on the models is the amazing lack of cold air over the Eastern half of the country about 5 or 6 days from now. Even a huge chunk of SE Canada has 850s above zero. That could be a good thing after the block retrogrades there could be a treasure trove of cold air to tap into for us.

The troughing will start in the central/eastern states, then try to retrograde west. Exactly how far west it's able to retrograde is still uncertain.

[snow_wizard]

Feeling better about early Feb after seeing ensembles hint at the Alaskan ridge?

The ECMWF ensemble control model shows a textbook retrogression with a cold trough by day 13. The ensemble mean has a decent positive center around the Aleutians.

[Phil]

Let's keep this going:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[snow_wizard]

Right now the trend is our friend. Much more robust positive center to our NW by early Feb. The control model gets really cold.

[snow_wizard]

Let's keep this going:

 

Things might be coming together for something very good.

[Phil]

I'm not a huge fan of the 00z EPS. Overall, too far west/southwest with that NPAC ridge/EPO, so verbatim that's an unfavorable pattern for poleward WAFz..PV/NAM would reconsolidate and the cold would slide east of the Rockies for the most part.

 

Most important/necessary features are the Eastern European ridge, and the +WPO/NE-Siberian vortex..both are lacking somewhat on the 00z EPS mean.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4EBBC2F6-0B64-44CC-911A-773DE0C8E7A1_zpsdxw0nhby.png

[snow_wizard]

I could certainly go for about a week long fogversion and then a big blast.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not a huge fan of the 00z EPS. Overall, too far west/southwest with that NPAC ridge/EPO, so verbatim that's an unfavorable pattern for poleward WAFz..PV/NAM would reconsolidate and the cold would slide east of the Rockies for the most part.

 

Most important/necessary features are the Eastern European ridge, and the +WPO/NE-Siberian vortex..both are lacking somewhat on the 00z EPS mean.

 

At least it's on the right track. As I said the control nails us.

[Phil]

At least it's on the right track. As I said the control nails us.

That's three runs in a row that've trended poorly, FWIW. The control run out 15 days is meaningless, at least relative to the ensemble mean (and verbatim the control run is close to being problematic as well).

 

A broad ridge along/south of the Aleutians is a wave dispersion regime. This loads the +EPO/+NAM very efficiently, especially at this time of year. Goes to show how unstable the upcoming transition will be. Really won't take much to screw it up, or to make it go big. All with consideration(s) to the short nature of the window (closes in mid-February).

[MossMan]

That's three runs in a row that've trended poorly, FWIW. The control run out 15 days is meaningless, at least relative to the ensemble mean (and verbatim the control run is close to being problematic as well).

 

A broad ridge along/south of the Aleutians is a wave dispersion regime. This loads the +EPO/+NAM very efficiently, especially at this time of year. Goes to show how unstable the upcoming transition will be. Really won't take much to screw it up, or to make it go big. All with consideration(s) to the short nature of the window (closes in mid-February).

[Timmy Supercell]

Any ice in town should be gone now. We had a "evening high" of 41. Occasionally it rained.

 

Now off/on showers, upper 30's and a mini gust storm (but a moderate one at that). Looks like it could last for hours.

[umadbro]

40 degrees and no wind in Tualatin. 10 miles SSW in Newberg, it's 53 and gusting to 20.

[FroYoBro]

Any significant ice damage in PDX?

Not really. Most places were just a couple of degrees too warm. Only places right near the river and east got any decent icing. 

[MossMan]

Any significant ice damage in PDX?

Sounds like Eastern Wa has had quite the night!

[umadbro]

Any significant ice damage in PDX?

My dad sent me a pic around 7pm in Vancouver last night with icicles hanging from trees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 55 at SLE. Warmest temp since November I believe. A torch at some point was inevitable, at least this one will be fairly short lived.