January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Still trying to figure Lake Oswego out as far as snow goes. Have not looked up the stats for this area. Long time ago I lived at Oswego point near the east end of the lake. This was in the late 80s. I remember the east wind liked to channel thought that area. We had a few snow storms too with one good old fashion Arctic front!

The other place (current) is off of Boones Ferry road up around 500 feet. Of course these past few storms seemed to produce good amount of snow.

We are thinking of moving back down here and I told the wife I want a snow producing area!

So, question to you guys. What areas in Portland do you get the best chances of snow? Troutdale is not an option as my wife will never go back there again.

 

The Hockinson area does really well, I hear they had a half inch a couple of weeks ago. 

[Deweydog]

The Hockinson area does really well, I hear they had a half inch a couple of weeks ago.

It photographs much better than 3/10 inch in all scenarios. Dry snow, wet snow. You name it.

[BLI snowman]

It photographs much better than 3/10 inch in all scenarios. Dry snow, wet snow. You name it.

 

I bet it was breathtaking. 

[Deweydog]

I bet it was breathtaking.

Looked like a snowier version of 12-1-07 out there!

[Deweydog]

The southerlies are back!!!

[Jesse]

The southerlies are back!!!

Gotta wonder if PDX will finally do the deed today.

 

Could be a nailbiting early afternoon coming up!

[Deweydog]

Gotta wonder if PDX will finally do the deed today.

 

Could be a nailbiting early afternoon coming up!

Winter 2016-17's defining moment!

[Jesse]

Winter 2016-17's defining moment!

VERY stupid thing to track!

[Deweydog]

VERY stupid thing to track!

Not stupid, just inconsequential. This month has been cold either way.

[Jesse]

Not stupid, just inconsequential. This month has been cold either way.

It'd be kind of neat to see PDX score a 50-less month. Some harmless fun. Beats complaining about melting snow.

[Deweydog]

It'd be kind of neat to see PDX score a 50-less month. Some harmless fun. Beats complaining about melting snow.

Melting or melted?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Melting or melted?

I love that my snow melted so quickly. Watching it die a slow dead is excruciating.

[Deweydog]

I love that my snow melted so quickly. Watching it die a slow dead is excruciating.

Definitely. We're close to snow-free here.

 

2014 took FOREVER to go entirely. 2008 melted pretty quickly.

[MossMan]

Still looks chilly up there.

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/sc/090VC05771.jpg

[Jesse]

Melting or melted?

Depends if I'm at work or home.

[Timmy Supercell]

I was wrong assuming this ice would be gone here by now. Direct sunlight and 35 outside now, still slippery spots between the vehicles and the front door. C'mon sun do your job today!

[TT-SEA]

I was wrong assuming this ice would be gone here by now. Direct sunlight and 35 outside now, still slippery spots between the vehicles and the front door. C'mon sun do your job today!

 

 

Prayers coming your way in this time of need.

[Deweydog]

Prayers coming your way in this time of need.

You can't play that role!!!

[DareDuck]

I was wrong assuming this ice would be gone here by now. Direct sunlight and 35 outside now, still slippery spots between the vehicles and the front door. C'mon sun do your job today!

Didn't expect to get down below freezing in Bend this morning, but it did. Roads were a bumpy ice rink, but it's warming up now and we just have our bumpy ruts again. Would love for them to melt.

[Timmy Supercell]

Prayers coming your way in this time of need.

 

I thought that was Jesse's job...

 

But seriously though, nothing to do with a dislike of winter weather. Sidewalks have been quite literally impassable throughout town and I still don't drive. 

[bainbridgekid]

Snoqualmie Pass has been closed the better part of 3 days now.

 

I can hardly remember ever seeing the Pass being closed longer.

[MossMan]

Snoqualmie Pass has been closed the better part of 3 days now.

 

I can hardly remember ever seeing the Pass being closed longer.

1996 was the last time I remember the pass being closed for this long!

[MossMan]

Still some signals for the first part of February having potential...may Western Washington have a record smashing snow and cold for the 2nd month of the year. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52 at PDX the dream is over

[Deweydog]

52 at PDX the dream is over

Huh uh...

 

[crf450ish]

Drove by Banks Lake yesterday http://i.imgur.com/e6SxP7i.jpg

[MossMan]

Looking pretty dry after Monday. 

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Pass has been closed the better part of 3 days now.

 

I can hardly remember ever seeing the Pass being closed longer.

 

 

Eastbound is open finally.  

[Phil]

The GEFS is much more bullish on the early FEB potential than the EPS or GGEM ensembles. This is partially due to enhanced off-equator convection on the GEFS relative to the EPS, which is more equatorward and contracted with the convection. The EPS is also much stronger with the PV, and ridging south of the Aleutians, which destructively interferes with the EPO attempt.

 

GEFS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9A1B4C9A-E82A-4A52-85E7-1D0744D53854_zps3rrjgkkp.jpg

 

EPS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A72F4415-34D4-4C2B-9FCB-4817BDAD0E88_zpspv1nnk23.jpg

[Jesse]

52 at PDX the dream is over

I figured today would do it. That's why I was reluctant to declare victory last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I figured today would do it. That's why I was reluctant to declare victory last night.

 

Never underestimate this climates ability to disappoint. 

[Phil]

Something else to keep in mind, the momentum flux vector looks very much equatorward over the next 10 days, which works against any potential SSW. Can heat/mass fluxes overcome unfavorable momentum deposition? Either way, the upper sigma wind reversal is notable, and this could prime the tropics in a manner that reverses the momentum fluxes later on. If we were depositing easterly momentum right now (-QBO), the PV would be gone already, however with the -QBO/Niña, the pattern over the Pacific and Eurasia would be more unfavorable for SSW anyway, so in that respect who knows.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E19158C1-7D69-4D32-A30E-7D4A8F5749F0_zpsn0hru7t1.jpg

[TT-SEA]

SSTAs continue to look warmer than normal on global level.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Phil]

SSTAs continue to look warmer than normal on global level.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

That cold IO domain is a huge deal. Should it persist, it would strongly aid in the development of an El Niño this summer, as it'd focus the integral of subsidence there, and subsequently assist in enhancing the Pacific/WHEM convection.

[Jesse]

Never underestimate this climates ability to disappoint.

This month is totally ruined now.

[Phil]

The systematic circulation(s) and fluid inertia will want to work against a Niño, however, which might throw the background into a WPAC forcing regime like in 2014/15. Then again, that EPAC/WHEM uplift had been sustained and rooted by the ongoing IO/WPAC regime, so if that system holds, all sorts of possibilities open, including a high wavenumber neutral convective regime without a background state, at least initially.

[Phil]

What argues against a Niño, I think, is the solar wind/geomag state relative to QBO. We usually observe the Niño/+AM response (followed by prolonged/multi-yr Niña/-AM) during the geomagnetic minimum, due to the resultant decrease in tropical static stability. This Niño response usually develops in the vicinity of the first low-geomag -QBO cycle, which further enhances the aforementioned tropical instability/thermal profiles that'd support a Niño regime.

 

This summer, we'll still have a relatively active (but declining) solar wind/geomag state, and a solid +QBO in the lower sigmas but transitioning QBO in the upper sigmas. That's a vehemently anti-niño forcing regime, but it's most certainly not favorable for a Niña, either.

 

So, my hunch still leads me to ENSO neutral, perhaps warm neutral, given the solar wind/geomagnetic integral is actually lower than would be typical of an average solar cycle, yet the subsurface profile/fluid inertia has a bunch of of catching up to do, if a coupled Niño is to develop.

[Phil]

I will say, though, that the extended range ECMWF/EPS/18z GFS eliminate that baratropic PV structure, and attempt a more baroclinic structure (tilted with height) as we close out January. If this verifies, then a SSW/complete PV breakdown is possible if not likely, and would have major implications during mid/late February and March.

[Phil]

From Michael Ventrice. Analogs for February, based on MJO/convective state. Solid GOA ridge w/ retrogression potential as well as that Eurasian ridge look (enhances wave driving via EHEM MT).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DDDC4135-F861-4550-9CB6-3265B0AD7D01_zpsxkouzh8u.jpg

[TT-SEA]

What argues against a Niño, I think, is the solar wind/geomag state relative to QBO. We usually observe the Niño/+AM response (followed by prolonged/multi-yr Niña/-AM) during the geomagnetic minimum, due to the resultant decrease in tropical static stability. This Niño response usually develops in the vicinity of the first low-geomag -QBO cycle, which further enhances the aforementioned tropical instability/thermal profiles that'd support a Niño regime.

 

This summer, we'll still have a relatively active (but declining) solar wind/geomag state, and a solid +QBO in the lower sigmas but transitioning QBO in the upper sigmas. That's a vehemently anti-niño forcing regime, but it's most certainly not favorable for a Niña, either.

 

So, my hunch still leads me to ENSO neutral, perhaps warm neutral, given the solar wind/geomagnetic integral is actually lower than would be typical of an average solar cycle, yet the subsurface profile/fluid inertia has a bunch of of catching up to do, if a coupled Niño is to develop.

 

 

My vote is to ride ENSO neutral through the summer at least... I always prefer neutral over a strong Nino or Nina.