January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I got up above 57 today... I am surprised you stayed that cool there.

 

We managed to hold onto a light easterly breeze the whole time.

[snow_wizard]

The modeling will struggle mightily in both the medium and long ranges over the next few weeks.

 

This is the worst possible scenario..significant stratospheric perturbation(s) in tandem with a high WHEM wavenumber undergoing a transition into - then out of - a dispersion regime, all whilst the tropical convection will be responding in some way or another..

 

We'll just have to wait and see.  Certainly great potential.

[snow_wizard]

It would be funny if they somehow dodged 50 this week but then hit it toward the end of the month with full sunshine in a ridgy pattern.

 

Although Mark looks to be a fake cold believer for next week. Some 42/26 type days at the end of the 7-day. Pretty chilly monthly average incoming if that happens.

 

The ridge will be totally wrong for warm sunny days.  Portland may not see 50 for a long time.

[snow_wizard]

In reality the 0z GFS is already on the road to being good well before the end of the run.  Nice to see after a good 12z.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  PDX just shot up to 46.

[Jesse]

The ridge will be totally wrong for warm sunny days.  Portland may not see 50 for a long time.

 

Yeah, the temp there has stabilized now around 45. I can't picture any further warming tonight, might actually cool off a bit again as the flow flips back around.

 

Tomorrow has an outside chance but beyond that nothing on the horizon. Friday is starting to look like a bonus cool day down here with low pressure offshore drawing chilly east winds in again. Mark has a high of 40 at PDX that day.

[Jesse]

Holy crap!  PDX just shot up to 46.

 

You are late to the party.

[Jesse]

We managed to hold onto a light easterly breeze the whole time.

 

What was your high today?

 

We peaked at 44 a bit ago. Warmest day here since 12/27.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Getting really windy here... weeeeee

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with a dewpoint max of 50F today, things sure have shifted to the warm side this week. It's been nice having some dynamism in the weather; there were bands of rain streaming through all day with sunny breaks and gusts of wind. It's also nice being able to go out for a walk and feel comfortable without needing a scarf or gloves. The Olympic shadow is struggling to hold the rain back tonight. 

 

The next several days continue to look fairly dynamic, yet, incredibly, it seems we will shift to offshore flow yet again and continue under it until at least next Monday (maybe longer). Seems like a weak outflow situation. This would be a snow maker for the island and parts of the Puget Sound if only there was some low level cold to draw from. S/SE upper level flow over NE outflow is a snow maker and it has been a rarity this year in the Puget Sound region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warmest day here since November, still couldn't quite hit 50. 

[snow_wizard]

What was your high today?

 

We peaked at 44 a bit ago. Warmest day here since 12/27.

48. With 850s back down to normal we might have dodged the 50 degree bullet. This is about the only area around here that stayed below 50 today.

 

Amazingly it has dropped back to 42 now.

[snow_wizard]

Ensembles are much better for very early Feb. A lot more cold ones.

[HighlandExperience]

Ensembles are much better for very early Feb. A lot more cold ones.

Globally 2016 was the hottest year on record. Let's hope those trends stop. Who knows maybe that had an impact on our recent cold snap.

[Jesse]

Globally 2016 was the hottest year on record. Let's hope those trends stop. Who knows maybe that had an impact on our recent cold snap.

 

I bet it directly prevented some of those lows from tracking perfectly for Issaquah.

[HighlandExperience]

[whitechristmas]

Mark has some awesome pics from yesterday's ice storm at Crown Point in Oregon in his latest post

titled "Warm south wind has arrived!"

 

http://www.kptv.com/link/492613/fox-12-weather-blog

[snow_wizard]

Globally 2016 was the hottest year on record. Let's hope those trends stop. Who knows maybe that had an impact on our recent cold snap.

Undoubtedly heat left over from the huge El Nino.

 

We are still due for the post Nino crash like we saw after the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ninos. I'm hopeful we will see the solar grand minimum cooling kick in soon also.

[Phil]

Undoubtedly heat left over from the huge El Nino.

 

We are still due for the post Nino crash like we saw after the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ninos. I'm hopeful we will see the solar grand minimum cooling kick in soon also.

We've already cooled over 0.5C from peak, despite the lackluster La Niña. Actually, the lower troposphere is just warm as it was in 1999 at this time, and that was a strong Niña.

 

Lower troposphere:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E22FBEC5-5885-4A56-ACD6-0A67111CF03B_zpsy6zzidsr.gif

 

Surface:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64BE6F70-080C-489F-A284-8A746D7A5373_zps0og8by9b.gif

[Jesse]

East wind is back at PDX. That should help to drop global temps by maybe another 0.01C.

[BLI snowman]

46 for a high today. I may keep some slushy snowcover going awhile, this is pretty rad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 at the dalles. That cold is stubborn!!

[Jesse]

24 at the dalles. That cold is stubborn!!

The thing is I really don't see any strong mechanism to fully mix out the Eastern Gorge/Columbia basin the next few days. Could be a pretty good recipe for fake cold going into the ridgy period next week.

 

Even PDX is back down to 36 with an ESE wind.

[Geos]

2.66" of rain in the last 48 hours here. Looks like a day with scattered showers on tap. 

 

Looking at the temperatures regionwide. That cold air hasn't really been scoured out east of the mountains yet.

[Blizzard777]

Snow still holding on her in Lake Oswego but should be gone by tonight.

42 degrees.

[Jesse]

The difference between the amount of snow left in west vs east Vancouver is pretty stark.

[MossMan]

I have come to the conclusion that 44 degree light rain is boring. 

[Jesse]

I have come to the conclusion that 44 degree light rain is boring.

Boredom is a state of mind.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have come to the conclusion that 44 degree light rain is boring normal. 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Boredom is a state of mind.

Deep!

[Jesse]

Deep!

Not as deep as that basin cold pool!

[Deweydog]

The difference between the amount of snow left in west vs east Vancouver is pretty stark.

Twice the snow takes at least twice as long to melt.

[BLI snowman]

The difference between the amount of snow left in west vs east Vancouver is pretty stark.

 

East Vancouver pretty much sucks.

[Jesse]

East Vancouver pretty much sucks.

How is yours faring?

[Jesse]

Twice the snow takes at least twice as long to melt.

I think there has been more low level cool air trapped down here too. It was 41 at my place this morning, 36 close to downtown.

[Blizzard777]

Still trying to figure Lake Oswego out as far as snow goes. Have not looked up the stats for this area. Long time ago I lived at Oswego point near the east end of the lake. This was in the late 80s. I remember the east wind liked to channel thought that area. We had a few snow storms too with one good old fashion Arctic front!

The other place (current) is off of Boones Ferry road up around 500 feet. Of course these past few storms seemed to produce good amount of snow.

We are thinking of moving back down here and I told the wife I want a snow producing area!

So, question to you guys. What areas in Portland do you get the best chances of snow? Troutdale is not an option as my wife will never go back there again.

[BLI snowman]

How is yours faring?

 

Patchier, still a lot of ground covered.

[Deweydog]

I think there has been more low level cool air trapped down here too. It was 41 at my place this morning, 36 close to downtown.

Maybe, but there was a lot more snow along I-5 and just west up to around Ridgefield.

[Deweydog]

Still trying to figure Lake Oswego out as far as snow goes. Have not looked up the stats for this area. Long time ago I lived at Oswego point near the east end of the lake. This was in the late 80s. I remember the east wind liked to channel thought that area. We had a few snow storms too with one good old fashion Arctic front!

The other place (current) is off of Boones Ferry road up around 500 feet. Of course these past few storms seemed to produce good amount of snow.

We are thinking of moving back down here and I told the wife I want a snow producing area!

So, question to you guys. What areas in Portland do you get the best chances of snow? Troutdale is not an option as my wife will never go back there again.

Hills.

[Jesse]

Maybe, but there was a lot more snow along I-5 and just west up to around Ridgefield.

Absolutely. I was all over Clark County this past week getting a read on average depths.