January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

So far I've managed to avoid hitting 50 here. Hasn't been that high since late November. I'm really amazed how well Portland is hanging onto the cold. They could easily be going for the coldest January in decades.

[snow_wizard]

Surprised to see our lawn emerging from the snow quite green... maybe it was insulated from the cold.  

 

Interesting. I was pretty surprised to see how brown a lot of lawns got during the cold wave. Pretty uncommon here in the winter.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of unimpressed with the rain from this system too, just a little over an inch yesterday.

We got hosed pretty good here. About 2.5 inches. Thank God it wasn't freezing rain.

[Front Ranger]

Ensembles look pretty ridgy for the West in the extended.

[Deweydog]

http://www.kgw.com/mb/news/2016-was-earths-hottest-on-record/387077379

 

This year will be cooler. Thanks, basin snow cover.

[snow_wizard]

Ensembles look pretty ridgy for the West in the extended.

 

Not the ECMWF ensembles...at least late in the period.

[Front Ranger]

At 37, PDX is warmer than they've been in 8 days...and 7 other days this month.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So far I've managed to avoid hitting 50 here. Hasn't been that high since late November. I'm really amazed how well Portland is hanging onto the cold. They could easily be going for the coldest January in decades.

I got up above 57 today... I am surprised you stayed that cool there.

[Tyler Mode]

I forget how quickly 50+ and humidity gets rid of snow!

 

Can hardly tell it snowed here. I have one little pile that I shoveled. High of 52 degrees. Highest temp since November 26th

 

Here are pictures, the icy pictures are from last night in NE Portland.  All of the ice was off the trees/cars when I woke up, but the ground is still pretty icy/snowy in spots.

[Timmy Supercell]

At approximately 5:56pm there was a gust that rumbled the whole wall facing ESE in the living room. I haven't heard one like that in a long time. (about as loud as 02/06/2015 wind event)

 

No spotters reported so far on any wind. Airport didn't get higher than 40.

[Bryant]

Not the ECMWF ensembles...at least late in the period.

We'll see ridging before we see retrogression and cold, just part of the progression

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 49 today. If I was going to hit 50 it would have probably been today. 

[Goducks09]

The wind is ripping!!!  Snow is disappearing more with every gust.  

[Jesse]

The wind is ripping!!!  Snow is disappearing more with every gust.  

 

Have south winds reached downtown?

 

I wonder if PDX will see a big spike in temperature over the next few hours. Feels like a situation where they will.

[Deweydog]

Decent little surface low on radar.

[Jesse]

500mb heights are now lower than they were the majority of the time that PDX was seeing subfreezing highs the past week.

 

#mindmelter

[Phil]

We'll see ridging before we see retrogression and cold, just part of the progression

This. Truly a classic discontinuous retrogression upcoming for week two. Not to mention a potential SSW.

[Jesse]

Decent little surface low on radar.

 

Looks like it's passing right over the metro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 at PDX

[Jesse]

41 at PDX

 

51 by 9pm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 by 9pm.

 

46 now

[Deweydog]

Yikes!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ironically temps at Salem and Eugene are at their daily lows...

[Deweydog]

Still a chilly 43 here.

[Jesse]

Still a chilly 43 here.

 

North of the low. You should be changing over to snow any minute now.

[Jesse]

Ironically temps at Salem and Eugene are at their daily lows...

 

Cooler airmass moving in, and with it more robust onshore flow. Enough to finally scour out the PDX cold pool!

[Deweydog]

North of the low. You should be changing over to snow any minute now.

Dry as a bone here. Downslope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cooler airmass moving in, and with it more robust onshore flow. Enough to finally scour out the PDX cold pool!

 

Probably no 50 at PDX today!

[Jesse]

Probably no 50 at PDX today!

 

We'll see if they creep up anymore. But yeah the fact that they are in the mid-40s with full on south winds might not be a bad sign.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We'll see if they creep up anymore. But yeah the fact that they are in the mid-40s with full on south winds might not be a bad sign.

 

And that places to the south have dropped from the 50s into the mid 40s shows "cooler" air is moving in!

[Goducks09]

Have south winds reached downtown?

 

I wonder if PDX will see a big spike in temperature over the next few hours. Feels like a situation where they will.

 

Yep.  Some pretty decent gusts rattling the windows for the past 30 minutes

[Jesse]

And that places to the south have dropped from the 50s into the mid 40s shows "cooler" air is moving in!

 

It would be funny if they somehow dodged 50 this week but then hit it toward the end of the month with full sunshine in a ridgy pattern.

 

Although Mark looks to be a fake cold believer for next week. Some 42/26 type days at the end of the 7-day. Pretty chilly monthly average incoming if that happens.

[Blizzard777]

Chiming in on the wind Lake Oswego.....derbies and some very good sized limbs On the roadway. Had to get personal with one of them. Yikes and glad my car didn't get damage as well as myself.

[Timmy]

Just got home. Wow! There is still a bit of snow probably 3" compact in the grass not under trees, and still a lot on the sides of roads. Pretty unusual for there to be more snow in town than up here. Scappoose still has about 8"

[Jesse]

Just got home. Wow! There is still a bit of snow probably 3" compact in the grass not under trees, and still a lot on the sides of roads. Pretty unusual for there to be more snow in town than up here. Scappoose still has about 8"

 

Even downtown Vancouver still has 4-5" with the grass totally covered in most places. 

 

The snow is almost all gone out here east of 164th.

[Phil]

00z GFS @ d12 is just nuts. Two anticyclonic breakers within 200 miles of one another?

[Phil]

I haven't seen the 00z stratospheric analyses yet, but looking at the polar wavetrain, verbatim I'd say there's a good chance this run goes big w/ SSW and obtains the full wind reversal at/above 10mb.

[BLI snowman]

384 alert!

[Phil]

Fantasy land stuff, but still fun to look at.

 

Game over for the PV:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011900&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=68

[Phil]

The modeling will struggle mightily in both the medium and long ranges over the next few weeks.

 

This is the worst possible scenario..significant stratospheric perturbation(s) in tandem with a high WHEM wavenumber undergoing a transition into - then out of - a dispersion regime, all whilst the tropical convection will be responding in some way or another..