January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Last three years, really. We're due.

 

We've been paying our dues for that uber-trough around 5/23/2013. Might still have a ways to go. 

[Geos]

About 0.65" of rain so far here. It's a raw night.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't believe it if I didn't see it. Tim was right! Snow melts!!!

 

 

It took an entire week to really start melting... impressive!  

[TT-SEA]

Last three years, really. We're due.

 

 

One really bad spring month?    I consider that a great spring.   

 

Comes down to timing as well... sometimes the crappy period does not always fit nicely into one month but still lasts over a month.

[TT-SEA]

So much anger behind that laughter...

 

None at all.   Don't start this crap again.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We've been paying our dues for that uber-trough around 5/23/2013. Might still have a ways to go. 

 

That thing was truly unbelievable. I only had a high of 42 that day with some non-sticking snow. 

[BLI snowman]

We've been paying our dues for that uber-trough around 5/23/2013. Might still have a ways to go.

We were paying our dues for 2010-2012, which all featured fairly impressive periods of spring gloom. 2013 was more balanced and the last three were generally dry and warm after March, which is sort of a winter month anyways. Smells like a change may be near.

[Jesse]

None at all.   Don't start this crap again.  

 

I should have added a winky face. I wasn't being serious.

[wx_statman]

We were paying our dues for 2010-2012, which all featured fairly impressive periods of spring gloom. 2013 was more balanced and the last three were generally dry and warm after March, which is sort of a winter month anyways. Smells like a change may be near.

 

2013 was a beautiful spring IMO. Some wild swings in late March, lots of continental airmasses in April and summer in early May. The 5/23 trough added to its charm.

[Bryant]

Probably unlikely to just continue following along... particularly with ENSO neutral which can go in any direction.

We've seen a persistent pattern up to this point, what's your reasoning that it's unlikely to continue? The fact that you don't want it to? We're still in a La Ninã btw

[TT-SEA]

I should have added a winky face. I wasn't being serious.

 

The is probably grain of truth to your statement as well.    

[TT-SEA]

We've seen a persistent pattern up to this point, what's your reasoning that it's unlikely to continue? The fact that you don't want it to? We're still in a La Ninã btw

 

I have no idea how it will proceed.   I would love to follow 1927 but its highly unlikely to just keep following one year.

 

I posted this in the other thread... but if this is not ENSO neutral right now then I am not sure what is neutral.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[BLI snowman]

2013 was a beautiful spring IMO. Some wild swings in late March, lots of continental airmasses in April and summer in early May. The 5/23 trough added to its charm.

Yeah, that was a nice mix. 2010 was the worst, basically six months of spring that year and no really notable airmasses.

[TT-SEA]

We were paying our dues for 2010-2012, which all featured fairly impressive periods of spring gloom. 2013 was more balanced and the last three were generally dry and warm after March, which is sort of a winter month anyways. Smells like a change may be near.

 

 

2010 and 2011 were terrible even by our standards.   2011 was the coldest spring ever for most of the PNW.    And 2012 was pretty bad as well.   

 

We are not paying dues for record cold springs.    

[Deweydog]

We've seen a persistent pattern up to this point, what's your reasoning that it's unlikely to continue? The fact that you don't want it to? We're still in a La Ninã btw

As Jesse preached all last summer, persistence can only persist for so long...

[Front Ranger]

One really bad spring month?    I consider that a great spring.   

 

Comes down to timing as well... sometimes the crappy period does not always fit nicely into one month but still lasts over a month.

 

I think you're still feeling the hangover from 2008-12 springs, which were unusually cool/wet overall. Despite having 3 pretty "nice" springs since then.

 

On average, April gets less than half the precip January does at SEA, and May gets 1.78", or about 30% of January's precip. 

 

Most years, spring is much drier and generally sunnier than winter in the PNW. It is also the season that Seattle sees the greatest benefit from the Olympic rain shadow, in terms of less rain and more sunshine than surrounding areas.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, that was a nice mix. 2010 was the worst, basically six months of spring that year and no really notable airmasses.

 

2010 was the worst. Longest spring I've ever seen here!

[snow_wizard]

18z looks decent at the end and the ECMWF ensemble shows a nice retrogression in the 10 to 15 day period. May be some hope for early February.

 

Maybe my anger over the epic snow fail will go away if something really starts to look solid.

[Jesse]

2010 and 2011 were terrible even by our standards.   2011 was the coldest spring ever for most of the PNW.    And 2012 was pretty bad as well.   

 

We are not paying dues for record cold springs.    

 

2015 and 2016 were some of our warmest springs ever. I'd say we have cancelled those two out nicely.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

18z looks decent at the end and the ECMWF ensemble shows a nice retrogression in the 10 to 15 day period. May be some hope for early February.

 

Maybe my anger over the epic snow fail will go away if something really starts to look solid.

Hang in there big guy.  I'm pissed off about it too, but there's not a lot that can be done.  Wrong place, wrong time.

[snow_wizard]

Hang in there big guy.  I'm pissed off about it too, but there's not a lot that can be done.  Wrong place, wrong time.

I was probably only angry about 3/4 of the time today. An improvement from the 7/8 I had been putting in.

 

I hold serious grudges about this stuff.

[Front Ranger]

2010 was the worst. Longest spring I've ever seen here!

 

As Tim will tell you, it was also the least sunny summer in Seattle history.

[BLI snowman]

2010 and 2011 were terrible even by our standards. 2011 was the coldest spring ever for most of the PNW. And 2012 was pretty bad as well.

 

We are not paying dues for record cold springs.

Yes we are.

 

2011 was the coldest April through June on record in the PNW. 2015 was the 2nd warmest and 2016 was the 4th warmest.

 

Those dues done been paid.

[Front Ranger]

I think you're still feeling the hangover from 2008-12 springs, which were unusually cool/wet overall. Despite having 3 pretty "nice" springs since then.

 

On average, April gets less than half the precip January does at SEA, and May gets 1.78", or about 30% of January's precip. 

 

Most years, spring is much drier and generally sunnier than winter in the PNW. It is also the season that Seattle sees the greatest benefit from the Olympic rain shadow, in terms of less rain and more sunshine than surrounding areas.

 

And actually, if you look at the city of Seattle itself instead of SEA, the stark differences between winter and spring (and spring compared to surrounding areas) are even more pronounced.

 

The Seattle city office downtown averaged 2.22" precip in April (36% of January) and just 1.32" in May (22% of January).

 

For comparison, OLM averages 3.33" in April and 2.10" in May.

 

PDX averages 2.54" in April and 2.27" in May.

[wx_statman]

As Tim will tell you, it was also the least sunny summer in Seattle history.

 

The real fluke that summer was that SEA managed two separate 3-day streaks of 90+ for the first time in history, despite all the gloom. Two anomalous ridges did the trick. PDX developed hot east winds at the surface on both 7/7 and 8/14...something you don't normally see in the middle of summer. Otherwise, lots of gunky low clouds that summer down here too. 

[TT-SEA]

Yes we are.

 

2011 was the coldest April through June on record in the PNW. 2015 was the 2nd warmest and 2016 was the 4th warmest.

 

Those dues done been paid.

 

Maybe due for some normal springs?  

[TT-SEA]

The real fluke that summer was that SEA managed two separate 3-day streaks of 90+ for the first time in history, despite all the gloom. Two anomalous ridges did the trick. PDX developed hot east winds at the surface on both 7/7 and 8/14...something you don't normally see in the middle of summer. Otherwise, lots of gunky low clouds that summer down here too. 

 

 

Yeah... it was two hot, sunny weeks and lots of gloom.

[TT-SEA]

I was probably only angry about 3/4 of the time today. An improvement from the 7/8 I had been putting in.

 

I hold serious grudges about this stuff.

 

 

Holding grudges against nature is about as futile as it comes.  

[TT-SEA]

2015 and 2016 were some of our warmest springs ever. I'd say we have cancelled those two out nicely.

 

Yep.  

[snow_wizard]

Holding grudges against nature is about a futile as it comes.

I know.

 

If this climate was a person I'd kick it's a$$. And I've only hit two people in my entire life.

[Front Ranger]

I know.

 

If this climate was a person I'd kick it's a$$. And I've only hit two people in my entire life.

 

 

That's not fair. The climate can't change who it is. It was born this way.

[BLI snowman]

Maybe due for some normal springs?

Normal is icky!

[Deweydog]

Have to wonder if this winter will sufficiently cash in our warm-a-thon karma of the last couple years. If it does, the Puget Sound residents have pretty decent grounds for a class action suit if February proves snow-starved but chilly.

[snow_wizard]

 

That's not fair. The climate can't change who it is. It was born this way.

I just can't come to grips with suffering through 3 years of torching and then being denied snow in one of the colder Dec - mid Jan periods on record. Unimaginably frustrating.

[TT-SEA]

I don't really care much what it does from Nov-Jan as long as its decent for a good part of spring, summer, and fall.  

 

Snow is nice but mostly you just slog though it to get to the other side.    This winter has been exceptionally nice so far in terms of dry days and sunshine.    Snow on the ground continously since the first part of December is a bonus as well.  

 

A really enjoyable number of days this winter with sunshine and snow on the ground which is the best winter weather possible.

[Deweydog]

I don't really care much what it does from Nov-Jan as long as its decent for a good part of spring, summer, and fall.

 

Snow is nice but mostly you just slog though it to get to the other side. This winter has been exceptionally nice so far in terms of dry days and sunshine. Snow on the ground is a bonus as well.

Associated inner monologue:

 

Jim thinks snow is a big deal. I'm gonna post about how it isn't a big deal despite receiving a lot of it. I'm a good person.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Associated inner monologue:

 

Jim thinks snow is a big deal. I'm gonna post about how it isn't a big deal despite receiving a lot of it. I'm a good person.

 

 

I really would not care much at all if I had received no snow this winter... all else being equal.   Give me snow on Christmas Day and nothing else and I would be happy.  

 

I had almost nothing in 2013-14... and Eugene ended up with maybe 10 times as much as in my backyard and thought it was more fascinating than depressing.  

[dairyd]

So.....which rivers are going to flood?  I'm thinking S fork Nooksack (minor), Snoqualmie (moderate), Wilson, Nehalem, maybe Chehalis (or upriver).  further south could be more significant crests.

[TT-SEA]

When are you visiting DC? If I'm in town, grab a few beers with Fred and I.

 

Oh, and don't forget to bring that PNW summer wx with you.

 

 

That would actually be a fun idea.   We are looking at the third week of June.