January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

1993 was a terrible summer... that would be depressing for many.   But very good for those who like 55-degree drizzle most of the summer.    Seasonal variety at its worst. 

 

1993 was an outlier due to a delayed response from volcanic activity in 1991.   Some will say that had nothing to do with it.   I would not expect a repeat of 1993 this summer and not just because of my preference that it be sunny and pleasant during the summer months.  

 

That was also an extremely wet and cold summer in the Midwest as you know.  

 

I definitely think Pinatubo had something to do with that summer. So you might be in luck this year!

 

I was actually just talking about Feb 1993. I'm not too worried about the rest of the year. 

[Jesse]

Yeah, I'm not getting a cold spring vibe right now. Maybe if February ends up pretty ridgy...

 

Ultimately that would probably be a great sign for a well below average September/October.

[Deweydog]

Ultimately that would probably be a great sign for a well below average September/October.

Frigid. I'm already liking a frosty Halloween 2017!

[wx_statman]

That was one that popped into my head too. 

 

Having lived through it, I will say that February 1995 was the standard for that sort of thing.

[Jesse]

Frigid. I'm already liking a frosty Halloween 2017!

 

Could mean we have to endure a raging +EPO and midwinter torch though.  <_>

[TT-SEA]

I definitely think Pinatubo had something to do with that summer. So you might be in luck this year!

 

I was actually just talking about Feb 1993. I'm not too worried about the rest of the year. 

 

 

Wow... February and March of 1993 were really nice.   I had not looked at those months before.

 

Rained on 3 days in February here with only .25 total and many frosty nights.  

[wx_statman]

Yeah, that was close but seemed like more of glancing blow from the east. I remember there was actually a really impressive east windstorm with that in Pierce County. Zero snow, and the cold got out of there pretty quick.

 

Yeah, that was definitely more of a glancing blow from the NE. 

[Jesse]

Having lived through it, I will say that February 1995 was the standard for that sort of thing.

 

It might have not been quite as extreme, but February 2014 was somewhat similar. January 2014 was pretty ridgy.

[Deweydog]

Having lived through it, I will say that February 1995 was the standard for that sort of thing.

That was a ridiculous shift.

[Jesse]

Wow... February and March of 1993 were really nice.   I had not looked at those months before.

 

Rained on 3 days in February here with only .25 total and many frosty nights.  

 

Sorry, no dice. Pinatubo influenced.

[Front Ranger]

Wow... February and March of 1993 were really nice.   I had not looked at those months before.

 

Rained on 3 days in February here with only .25 total and many frosty nights.  

 

You already said you're going to be on vacation half the summer anyway, so who cares if there's a '93 repeat.

 

Not sure why you scheduled so much out of state time during the "nicest" time of the year, though? 

[BLI snowman]

Trying to think when was the last time we had a big mid/late winter ridge that retrograded to a classic Arctic outbreak pattern. It's been awhile.

 

I guess Feb 2014 sorta did, but not really. Maybe Feb 1995?

2014 definitely did. As did 2006, ridgy early February which retrograded.

[Deweydog]

It might have not been quite as extreme, but February 2014 was somewhat similar. January 2014 was pretty ridgy.

1989 was pretty toasty just ahead of that minor cold snap.

[wx_statman]

It might have not been quite as extreme, but February 2014 was somewhat similar. January 2014 was pretty ridgy.

 

Definitely similar, but a bit earlier in the season. 1985-like. 

[Front Ranger]

It might have not been quite as extreme, but February 2014 was somewhat similar. January 2014 was pretty ridgy.

 

Yeah, Feb 1995 had a much faster flip, a true rapid retrogression pattern.

[wx_statman]

That was a ridiculous shift.

 

Its hard to imagine a Nino winter more dead in the water than 1995 looked around the 6th or so. Right before the forecasts turned interesting. 

[TT-SEA]

You already said you're going to be on vacation half the summer anyway, so who cares if there's a '93 repeat.

 

Not sure why you scheduled so much out of state time during the "nicest" time of the year, though? 

 

 

Not really my choice... just how worked out.    We are spending 2.5 weeks in MN... a week in Couer D'Alene... and planning a trip to New York and DC as well.    

 

There are only about 10 weeks between when school lets out and Labor Day.   

[Jesse]

Yeah, Feb 1995 had a much faster flip though, a true rapid retrogression pattern.

 

Might have been quicker, but that sort of ultra-fast flip is pretty rare, which is one of the things that made that pattern progression so special.

 

Usually retrogression seems to be something that occurs in a few steps. Even for ones where we eventually strike gold. It's very unusual to go from a sharp +PNA ridge to a deep arctic airmass within a few days.

[wx_statman]

February 1957 is another good one. Dry ridging from the 15-18th followed by a snowstorm. Following a cold January too.

[bainbridgekid]

I just read that today was the 9th day Portland Public Schools have been closed for weather this year.

 

Pretty crazy since there's only been about 80 days of school so far.

 

They're going to have to get pretty creative to make it all up.

[TT-SEA]

I just read that today was the 9th day Portland Public Schools have been closed for weather this year.

 

Pretty crazy since there's only been about 80 days of school so far.

 

They're going to have to get pretty creative to make it all up.

 

That is incredible.   And sort of ridiculous.    It has not been that bad.   This going to bring about some policy changes.   

 

We have a total of zero days to make up here... schools have not been closed once despite numerous snow events.   

[Front Ranger]

Might have been quicker, but that sort of ultra-fast flip is pretty rare, which is one of the things that made that pattern progression so special.

 

Usually retrogression seems to be something that occurs in a few steps. Even for ones where we eventually strike gold.

 

True. I just wonder if ridging over the next couple weeks really increases the odds of true retrogression-induced Arctic outbreak shortly after. 

 

Overall, like you said as long as we're seeing blocking of some sort redevelop on the North American side, that's probably a better sign than raging +EPO/Pacific jet.

[wx_statman]

I just read that today was the 9th day Portland Public Schools have been closed for weather this year.

 

Pretty crazy since there's only been about 80 days of school so far.

 

They're going to have to get pretty creative to make it all up.

 

I haven't had any campus commitments @ PSU since Monday the 9th. Campus closed on Weds & Thurs, MLK monday, and closed again today. Four days on campus cancelled for me personally. Its crazy. 

[Deweydog]

That is incredible. And sort of ridiculous. It has not been that bad. This going to bring about some policy changes.

 

We have a total zero days to make up here... schools have not been closed once despite numerous snow events.

Battle Ground is on #8. My wife is friends with one of the administrators and they said it's unprecedented for the district by a long shot.

[Jesse]

True. I just wonder if ridging over the next couple weeks really increases the odds of true retrogression-induced Arctic outbreak shortly after. 

 

Overall, like you said as long as we're seeing blocking of some sort redevelop on the North American side, that's probably a better sign than raging +EPO/Pacific jet.

 

Yup, that's really all I am getting at. The reference to ridging over us being ok was more of a call for people not to panic too much if it happens since it may only be a temporary byproduct of a favorable blocky regime staying in place (we're looking at you, Andrew).

 

I never made a statement implying what you are saying in the first line, so we should just get that out of the way right now.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I'm not getting a cold spring vibe right now. Maybe if February ends up pretty ridgy...

I think one of April, May, or June will be exceptionally crappy and grey.

[Jesse]

Just did a quick traffic cam tour of the metro area before it gets too dark, and the only places in the city of Portland where I can see ice physically on the camera are Airport Way/Marine Drive. Pretty shallow layer of sub-freezing air right along the river.

 

Just 32.4 degree rain up here. Bullet dodged.

[wx_statman]

Just did a quick traffic cam tour of the metro area before it gets too dark, and the only places in the city of Portland where I can see ice physically on the camera are Airport Way/Marine Drive. Pretty shallow layer of sub-freezing air right along the river.

 

Just 32.4 degree rain up here. Bullet dodged.

 

Complete forecast bust here. Another in a long line this winter. 

[BLI snowman]

Wow... February and March of 1993 were really nice. I had not looked at those months before.

 

Rained on 3 days in February here with only .25 total and many frosty nights.

February 1993 was awesome. An inch of precip here that month and 90% of that was snow.

 

Wettest April on record though, and a crapload of thunderstorms that year.

[Deweydog]

I think one of April, May, or June will be exceptionally crappy and grey.

One can hope...

[Jesse]

**PDX down to up a degree**

[TT-SEA]

I think one of April, May, or June will be exceptionally crappy and grey.

 

When is not the case?   

[Jesse]

When is not the case?   

 

So much anger behind that laughter...

[wx_statman]

Ice storm update - the little icicles that formed earlier this afternoon have melted. 

[Blizzard777]

33.6 and all the little icicles are gone

Entertainment now directed at Troutdale

[wx_statman]

33.6 and all the little icicles are gone

Entertainment now directed at Troutdale

 

Lots of slushy snow left to melt though. At least there's that!

[Deweydog]

I wouldn't believe it if I didn't see it. Tim was right! Snow melts!!!

[wx_statman]

FWIW, the NWS tweeted that PDX had a quarter-inch of ice at 4pm. One-third inch in Troutdale and I-84 is closed. 

[BLI snowman]

When is not the case?

Last three years, really. We're due.

[Jesse]

Last three years, really. We're due.

 

 

It rained for like, a week or more last May. I didn't think I'd make it out alive. We've paid our dues.