January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

This does not look good.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/vancouver/005vc00050.jpg

[Blizzard777]

East wind seems to be increasing a bit here in lake Oswego

Temp now 32

Icicles forming on trees

[stuffradio]

Looks like 18Z going for hugely amplified ridging over the west coast starting by day 10.

[Phil]

Looks like 18Z going for hugely amplified ridging over the west coast starting by day 10.

Classic example of discontinuous retrogression..slow process but animate the 500mb anomaly maps for NH (on high speed) and you'll see the anticyclonic wave gradually propagating westward.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like 18Z going for hugely amplified ridging over the west coast starting by day 10.

Sounds marvelous!  <_ style="font-size:14px;"> 

[Front Ranger]

Definitely not me..anyone in particular? Might want to avoid calling people out unless you're confident enough to identify them, as I don't think anyone would have made a down-to-the-week prediction months in advance.

 

I will say, though, that the predictions for the breakdown of the +EPO regime in late January turned out to be correct. That's all I've seen predicted.

Lol, I was specifically avoiding calling anyone out. Just remarking on the general, popular idea that has been pushed back.

[Phil]

Watch the anticyclone propagate westward on the 18z GFS, in the response to the tropical forcing/EAMT recoil.

 

Edit: Can't link the gif here, make one here:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011718&fh=378&xpos=0&ypos=520

[BLI snowman]

Hour 384 looks like it will cold again!

[FroYoBro]

I have seen a lot of 33 degrees rain this winter.

 

 

Terrible winter for Portland.

[Phil]

Verbatim, the 18z GFS would completely dismantle the PV:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017011718&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=160

[Jesse]

**KVUO down to 30**

[Deweydog]

This does not look good.

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/vancouver/005vc00050.jpg

I totally drove by that wreck about 20 minutes ago!

[MossMan]

I totally drove by that wreck about 20 minutes ago!

Was it slick, or was it just a random wreck?

[Deweydog]

Was it slick, or was it just a random wreck?

Wet.

[TT-SEA]

I totally drove by that wreck about 20 minutes ago!

 

 

Totally?  Or just partially?   

[wx_statman]

I'm not sure if it has been mentioned, but looking back, 1926-27 appears like the closest analog to this cold season. 

 

-negative ENSO following torchy Nino (in 1925-26)

-significantly wet October

-very warm November

-Arctic outbreaks in both December and January

 

Its the closest match I could find, going back to the 1870's. 

[wx_statman]

In ice storm news, I'm not seeing any growth to those little icicles I mentioned earlier. They're still there, but this is just a bunch of cold rain. 

[Deweydog]

Totally? Or just partially?

Totally. I was the guy who ran them off the road.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not sure if it has been mentioned, but looking back, 1926-27 appears like the closest analog to this cold season. 

 

-negative ENSO following torchy Nino (in 1925-26)

-significantly wet October

-very warm November

-Arctic outbreaks in both December and January

 

Its the closest match I could find, going back to the 1870's. 

 

 

Good information... thanks.

 

We were about done with any meaningful cold and snow at this point in 1927.

 

A fairly decent spring in my area with plenty of dry days.   Lots of frosty nights and warmish days in March and April implying clear skies.    May was not so great but summer was in full gear by the first week of June which does not always happen here.   A decent summer as well.  

[Front Ranger]

Here was his forecast-

 

 

Thanks. Probably fair to paste what I had for December as well:

 

DECEMBER -

 

Overall, the analogs (both the broader and more narrow sets) paint a pretty clear picture. There is a strong signal for upper latitude blocking to continue on the Euro-Asian side of the globe in December. Much of Asia should remain colder than normal, and western Europe will likely turn stormy and cooler. There is a weaker signal for west based -NAO in North America, leading to much more seasonable conditions in the lower 48, and a good chance of below normal temps over parts of the country. Interior Alaska should turn colder, as a Bering Sea/Siberian high funnels some of the cold air from Asia into northern North America.

 

At some point I'll have to look at the 500mb anomalies for December and then this month and see how they matched up to my preferred analog composite. I think the general idea of a very blocky winter, with -EPO and suppressed jet mid winter, has played out well to this point.

 

- Interior AK did turn colder (relative anomalies) last month, and a Bering Sea/Siberian high did develop and help funnel some of the cold air that had been predominantly in Asia during the fall into North America in December. The lower 48 ended up much cooler than it had been, with about half the country below normal.

 

- There has not been as much -NAO as the analogs indicated this winter, though we have entered a -NAO regime recently. There was west-based -NAO from late November through mid December, but since then the blocking has been primarily -WPO/-EPO. As a result, Europe has not been all that cold so far.

 

- While the coldest weather has indeed been in the west/central US this month, it has been more north-focused than the analogs indicated. The southern tier is mostly above normal. Too soon to evaluate the month as a whole, though.

 

We'll have to see if -PNA returns for February, and more cold shifts east with increased -NAO.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure if it has been mentioned, but looking back, 1926-27 appears like the closest analog to this cold season. 

 

-negative ENSO following torchy Nino (in 1925-26)

-significantly wet October

-very warm November

-Arctic outbreaks in both December and January

 

Its the closest match I could find, going back to the 1870's. 

 

Nice work.

 

The fact that we have followed it so closely almost ensures this winter will deviate soon!

[Jesse]

Looking at model trends today, at least it looks like we don't stay mild and wet very long!

 

Big ridge looks to possibly develop the last week of the month. Still deep enough in the winter that we could score some decent fake cold out of it. Might also put us in a pretty good position for a more classic retrograde later on.

[wx_statman]

Good information... thanks.

 

We were about done with any meaningful cold and snow at this point in 1927.

 

A fairly decent spring in my area with plenty of dry days.   Lots of frosty nights and warmish days in March and April implying clear skies.    May was not so great but summer was in full gear by the first week of June which does not always happen here.   A decent summer as well.  

 

Seems like a pretty decent year overall. There is of course no guarantee that the rest of 2017 will follow suit. 

[wx_statman]

Nice work.

 

The fact that we have followed it so closely almost ensures this winter will deviate soon!

 

That's the issue with these analogs. You never know when a left turn is coming. 

 

I would accept a transition to a 1992-93 analog moving forward.

[Jesse]

For those who are still hoping for some action out of this winter, the fact that we look to go into a pretty blocky pattern again in short order (even though the ridge is over us) as opposed to a raging jet and buckets of mild rain like so often follows our long cold periods, is a great sign.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like a pretty decent year overall. There is of course no guarantee that the rest of 2017 will follow suit. 

 

 

Probably unlikely to just continue following along... particularly with ENSO neutral which can go in any direction.

[Jesse]

Probably unlikely to just continue following along... particularly with ENSO neutral which can go in any direction.

We are pretty overdue for a cool and wet spring/early summer. So there's that.

[Front Ranger]

Looking at model trends today, at least it looks like we don't stay mild and wet very long!

 

Big ridge looks to possibly develop the last week of the month. Still deep enough in the winter that we could score some decent fake cold out of it. Might also put us in a pretty good position for a more classic retrograde later on.

 

Trying to think when was the last time we had a big mid/late winter ridge that retrograded to a classic Arctic outbreak pattern. It's been awhile. 

 

I guess Feb 2014 sorta did, but not really. Maybe Feb 1995?

[wx_statman]

For those who are still hoping for some action out of this winter, the fact that we look to go into a pretty blocky pattern again in short order (even though the ridge is over us) as opposed to a raging jet and buckets of mild rain like so often follows our long cold periods, is a great sign.

 

Indeed. It was a good sign for eventual retrogression in winters like 1984-85, or more recently 2013-14. 

[Deweydog]

Probably unlikely to just continue following along... particularly with ENSO neutral which can go in any direction.

Logic and reason suggests we may stay on that path forever.

[TT-SEA]

That's the issue with these analogs. You never know when a left turn is coming. 

 

I would accept a transition to a 1992-93 analog moving forward.

 

 

1993 was a terrible summer... that would be depressing for many.   But very good for those who like 55-degree drizzle most of the summer.    Seasonal variety at its worst. 

 

1993 was an outlier due to a delayed response from volcanic activity in 1991.   Some will say that had nothing to do with it.   I would not expect a repeat of 1993 this summer and not just because of my preference that it be sunny and pleasant during the summer months.  

 

That was also an extremely wet and cold summer in the Midwest as you know.  

[TT-SEA]

We are pretty overdue for a cool and wet spring/early summer. So there's that.

 

 

I would be inclined to think that was coming if we had a moderate or strong Nina... but neutral tends to be pretty nice in the spring and summer.    Time will tell!   

[wx_statman]

Trying to think when was the last time we had a big mid/late winter ridge that retrograded to a classic Arctic outbreak pattern. It's been awhile. 

 

I guess Feb 2014 sorta did, but not really. Maybe Feb 1995?

 

Maybe February 2006? The southern OR coast had some serious downsloping with upper 70's about a week before that blast. 

[Jesse]

I would be inclined to think that was coming if we had a moderate or strong Nina... but neutral tends to be pretty nice in the spring and summer.    Time will tell!   

 

Neutral seems to be a pretty mixed bag. 

[TT-SEA]

Logic and reason suggests we may stay on that path forever.

 

Just the opposite.  

[Front Ranger]

1993 was a terrible summer... that would be depressing for many.   But very good for those who like 55-degree drizzle most of the summer.    Seasonal variety at its worst. 

 

1993 was an outlier due to a delayed response from volcanic activity in 1991.   Some will say that had nothing to do with it.   I would not expect a repeat of 1993 this summer and not just because of my preference that it be sunny and pleasant during the summer months.  

 

That was also an extremely wet and cold summer in the Midwest as you know.  

 

Summer of 1993 was so bad, Kurt Cobain offed himself the following April.

[Deweydog]

I would be inclined to think that was coming if we had a moderate or strong Nina... but neutral tends to be pretty nice in the spring and summer. Time will tell!

Yeah, I'm not getting a cold spring vibe right now. Maybe if February ends up pretty ridgy...

[Jesse]

Maybe February 2006? The southern OR coast had some serious downsloping with upper 70's about a week before that blast. 

 

That was one that popped into my head too. 

[Front Ranger]

Maybe February 2006? The southern OR coast had some serious downsloping with upper 70's about a week before that blast. 

 

Yeah, that was close but seemed like more of glancing blow from the east. I remember there was actually a really impressive east windstorm with that in Pierce County. Zero snow, and the cold got out of there pretty quick.

[Deweydog]

Just the opposite.

A REAL January 1950 redux just 23 years away. Everyone stay healthy!