February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Interesting snow prospects next Sunday if that low can avoid falling too far offshore. These lows sliding down from the northern tip of Vancouver Island are usually good snow producers for the PNW. The major problem will be the lack of a significant Arctic air mass to draw from in the BC interior and the speed of the low. This would continue the theme of this winter with 850mb temperatures struggling to drop below the -8~-12C range. Still, it would be nice to get a nice quick hitting weekend shot of snow.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, it looks like the 1981-2010 normal dropped a bit over an inch at YYJ. It's too bad there aren't any stations with reasonable climate data for the downtown area. The Victoria Francis Park station is the closest I could find with more recent data, it averaged about 17.7" in the 1981-2010 norms. That might be somewhat representative of the seasonal averages in this part of Saanich, which is about 4 miles southeast of there but about 60~80ft higher. The downtown totals would still be quite a bit lower due to its proximity to the ocean and low elevation.

 

Of course, important to remember that the median is quite a bit lower, given the highly variable winter totals there. I would bet most winters don't exceed 10", but the average is pushed up by monsters like 1996-97.

[MossMan]

Long range Euro is pretty disappointing.

Well that was fun while it lasted. Might as well bring on sun and warmth!

[Phil]

First the PV got decapitated, now dismembered.

 

You have a flair for violent imagery.

Lol. To be fair, SSW events are the most violent large scale atmospheric processes in meteorology, in terms of the involved domain space/time.

 

Dictionary:

 

Dismemberment: The breaking of a filament(s) off the vortex.

Decapitation: Upper level portion of the vortex compromised

 

Hope that clears things up.

[TT-SEA]

Downside to leaving in the winter is missing the awesome weather there. 81 and sunny here with a dewpoint of 58 and a pleasant NW breeze. Summer perfection.

[ShawniganLake]

Well that was fun while it lasted. Might as well bring on sun and warmth!

I fear it may be a long chilly spring for the sun lovers.  I doubt its going to be an early start for the veggie garden. 

 

As for the Euro, I guess we will see, but it hasn't seemed to be all that great with the long range details this year. 

[Front Ranger]

Downside to leaving in the winter is missing the awesome weather there. 81 and sunny here with a dewpoint of 58 and a pleasant NW breeze. Summer perfection.

 

Weird post.

[Bryant]

Well that was fun while it lasted. Might as well bring on sun and warmth!

You did this before our last event too

[TT-SEA]

Weird post.

Sarcasm and just being a smart a×s... combined with a weather report. Today would be absolute summer perfection at home in July and August.

[Phil]

I fear it may be a long chilly spring for the sun lovers. I doubt its going to be an early start for the veggie garden.

 

As for the Euro, I guess we will see, but it hasn't seemed to be all that great with the long range details this year.

Starting to look that way. Though looks like another major WWB event in the pipeline for the first half of March, which will try to alter the equatorial Pacific state.

 

We may very well be heading into another +ENSO event, though always have to watch for the possibility of an aborted event given unfavorable QBO and off-beat fluid-inertial resonance of the equatorial Pacific.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to look that way. Though looks like another major WWB event in the pipeline for the first half of March, which will try to alter the equatorial Pacific state.

 

We may very well be heading into another +ENSO event, though always have to watch for the possibility of an aborted event given unfavorable QBO and off-beat fluid-inertial resonance of the equatorial Pacific.

Statistical models say Neutral.  Dynamical average says Nino.  Quite the spread between the two.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/figure4.gif

[Jesse]

You did this before our last event too

It's really annoying.

[Front Ranger]

Sarcasm and just being a smart a×s... combined with a weather report. Today would be absolute summer perfection at home in July and August.

 

Just giving you a hard time.

 

How was the Trump rally?

[MossMan]

It's really annoying.

You my friend are really annoying with your constant whining about actual nice summer weather every single year. It gets old and tiring as well. Get over it.

[TT-SEA]

Just giving you a hard time.

 

How was the Trump rally?

 

 

 

Spectacular!   

[Guest Dome Buster]

Next weekend will get very interesting if we can get some east wind density.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11.16" of rain on the month now at SLE. Less than 2" from the all-time monthly record set back in 1996. 

[umadbro]

11.16" of rain on the month now at SLE. Less than 2" from the all-time monthly record set back in 1996.

Records are made to be broken!

 

Except Joe DiMaggio. His 56 game hitting streak will never be broken.

[Trainwreck]

Next weekend will get very interesting if we can get some east wind density.

Josh, you are my density.

[Deweydog]

Next weekend will get very interesting if we can get some east wind density.

 

You still digging out?  

[Jesse]

You my friend are really annoying with your constant whining about actual nice summer weather every single year. It gets old and tiring as well. Get over it.

Umadbro?

 

I think the whining about my whining is probably worse at this point. I hated the summer of 2015 (our hottest on record) but even then in reality I was never too bad. The legend has outgrown the actuality of it. The same thing has happened to Tim. He actually hasn't been too bad about complaining about the rain the last couple years, but people still treat him like he complains constantly since it's basically become a meme. And I was nowhere close to as bad as him at my "worst".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a decent pattern coming up for snow up here. I think Thursday night/Friday morning has some potential for the valley and PDX. 

 

WOW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

[Deweydog]

Umadbro?

 

I think the whining about my whining is probably worse at this point. I hated the summer of 2015 (our hottest on record) but even then I n reality I was never too bad. The legend has outgrown the actuality of it.

 

I have a metric ton of private messages that suggest otherwise. 

[Jesse]

I have a metric s**t ton of private messages that suggest otherwise.

PMing you to discuss the pattern is an entirely different animal than complaining endlessly on the forum. I actually learned some stuff too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW! Definitely some potential for the lowlands to score later this week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

[Deweydog]

PMing you to discuss the pattern is an entirely different animal than complaining endlessly on the forum. I actually learned some stuff too!

 

It's your bias that gets you into trouble.  Your singling people out for their incongruent preferences was really bad for several years.  You haven't quite shaken off that brand.  

[Jesse]

I never realized Andrew was such a World of Warcraft fan.

[ShawniganLake]

[Deweydog]

WOW! Definitely some potential for the lowlands to score later this week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

 

Jesse gets dry slotted!

[Jesse]

It's your bias that gets you into trouble. Your singling people out for their incongruent preferences was really bad for several years. You haven't quite shaken off that brand.

Fair enough. I was younger. Feistier.

 

It's weird to think that you were the age that I am now when I first started posting here.

[Jesse]

Jesse gets dry slotted!

His keyboard just got wet slotted.

[Deweydog]

Fair enough. I was younger. Feistier.

 

It's weird to think that you were the age that I am now when I first started posting here.

 

Hadley Cells make time fly!

[Deweydog]

His keyboard just got wet slotted.

 

My location is a dirty place.

 

#packyourblacklight

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My location is a dirty place.

 

#packyourblacklight

 

Lots of lonely nights viewing model porn...

 

Could see some light snow up here as early as Tuesday night. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Of course, important to remember that the median is quite a bit lower, given the highly variable winter totals there. I would bet most winters don't exceed 10", but the average is pushed up by monsters like 1996-97.

 

Like most places in the PNW lowlands this city seems to average 1~2 very snowy winters per decade and about 2~3 virtually snowless (

[Deweydog]

Lots of lonely nights viewing model porn...

 

Could see some light snow up here as early as Tuesday night. 

 

The 6z never disappoints.  

[Front Ranger]

I never realized Andrew was such a World of Warcraft fan.

 

There needs to be a World of Weather game where we all run around making our wildest weather fantasies come true. Jim could be a real wizard, and Phil could do epic battle with Polar Vortexes!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looking back through the stats for Feb 2011 up here. 8" snow depth and a 28/14 on the 25th and 27/10 on the 26th. Pretty incredible for this late in the season. Low at my place was probably around 5 on the 26th if it hit 10 at Silver Falls. 

[Deweydog]

Just looking back through the stats for Feb 2011 up here. 8" snow depth and a 28/14 on the 25th and 27/10 on the 26th. Pretty incredible for this late in the season. Low at my place was probably around 5 on the 26th if it hit 10 at Silver Falls. 

 

SCORE!