Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 After what has been an eternity of track any winter storms of significance for our sub forum, Mother Nature seems to be turning the corner. Who will get rocked??? Will this storm spin up to be a major??? Let's discuss... 00z EPS still liking NE/IA/MN/WI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021900/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021900/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 06z GEFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017021906/168/snod.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 12z JMAl...yesterday's run... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017021812/jma_T850_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 That low moving across the international border on Wed may ultimately decide where the Friday system tracks. A stronger and more southerly Wed low will lead to a more southerly Friday system. The last few runs of the GFS have a weaker/north Wed low and hence the Friday system has been inching north....more like the GEM and Euro. It's weird tracking a potential monster snowstorm when it's going to be in the mid 60s today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 That low moving across the international border on Wed may ultimately decide where the Friday system tracks. A stronger and more southerly Wed low will lead to a more southerly Friday system. The last few runs of the GFS have a weaker/north Wed low and hence the Friday system has been inching north....more like the GEM and Euro. It's weird tracking a potential monster snowstorm when it's going to be in the mid 60s today.Agree. That storm will be somewhat of a player as to where the storm will track. Looks like it will drag a cold front/boundary and that is where the frontogenisis develops. Although, the 00z Euro has a 997mb Wed system in N WI and the storm cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Agree. That storm will be somewhat of a player as to where the storm will track. Looks like it will drag a cold front/boundary and that is where the frontogenisis develops. Although, the 00z Euro has a 997mb Wed system in N WI and the storm cuts.Yep, good point about the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Western forum...Nice hit, once again. Is it April yet? April's gonna rock! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Anyone have snowfall maps/amounts from the 0Z Euro last night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 I expect this storm to be west of SEMI and provide wind, rain and thunderstorms. Colder air will follow. Afterwards, a few flurries possible as the low departs. Plain and simple. Tbh: I would not mind experiencing a few rumbles of thunder. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 GFS coming in a bit weaker/south so far through hr 90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Weaker and slower to eject thru 114. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Nice hit for IA/S MN/WI.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Looks like its weaker in the central Plains but then wraps up heading into the Lakes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021912/120/prateptype_cat.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 S/C WI crush job... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Ends up tracking south of Chicago a bit. 12-16 in the max area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 The LRC's long-wave ridge in the plains causes it to be a weaker storm as it ejects, but then as has been the case at times this season, storms intensify as they track towards the Lakes. Storm goes neg tilt right around IL/IA... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021912/gfs_z500_vort_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 GEM still way NW and tracks the low into western MN. Much stronger to start and ejects faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Ends up tracking south of Chicago a bit. 12-16 in the max areaTemps in the 20's will help with accumulations during the day time but I would imagine some melting will eat away from max accumulations due to warm grounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Certainly looking like a late winter/early Spring storm...temp gradient will fuel this storm with juice hopefully... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021912/gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 12z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021912/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Here's the big difference between GEM/GFS. GEM already has the low down to 986 at HR 102: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017021912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png GFS digs it farther south and is 10 mb weaker: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 GEM gets it down to 981 at HR 120: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017021912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png GFS is about 12 MB weaker and way SE: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 How is ukie looking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 How is ukie looking? Won't be out until about 10-15 mins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Won't be out until about 10-15 mins it will be interesting if ukie remain further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif south of the gfs and how does it looks snow wise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 GEM Ensembles are quite a bit SE of the OP and in pretty good agreement. Look similar to GFS: http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017021912_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_120.png http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017021912_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_132.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 looks strung out and weak, probably not much in the way of significant precip relative to the other models Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 looks strung out and weak, probably not much in the way of significant precip relative to the other models Here's HR 144. Looks like it wraps up as it heads east: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Quite the mix on the GFS ensembles. Some way amped/west (4-5) and the other look similar to the OP GFS. Overall, they trended south of 6z tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 I expect this storm to be west of SEMI and provide wind, rain and thunderstorms. Colder air will follow. Afterwards, a few flurries possible as the low departs. Plain and simple. Tbh: I would not mind experiencing a few rumbles of thunder.It's our payback year, but we'll have flakes flying in spring when I least want to see them! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 It's our payback year, but we'll have flakes flying in spring when I least want to see them!Watch us get snowstorms in March and April!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Para http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017021906&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Parahttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017021906&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0 6z Para so meh. You're rooting this north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 6z Para so meh. You're rooting this north U r rooting it south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 How is posting a model rooting it somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2017 Report Share Posted February 19, 2017 Why didn't you post any of the other para runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.