February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Money]

Yeah, you'll have warm surface temps to start also but there's a good chance of getting .1 inch of ice or so which sucks. Ice is the worst to drive in 

[Money]

RGEM is a hair east of 12z/18z and a tad colder. Just a little bit though 

[Money]

RGEM Snowfall:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017022300/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Ice:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017022300/048/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[Madtown]

Holy ice!

[Tony]

If these south trends continue the IL/WI border could be in the ice/sleet zone.

[Money]

GFS a tad north but colder in MN/NE it looks like. 

[gosaints]

Moist... Supersized weenie run

[Money]

Continuing the trend east:

 

Takes it over Chicago again:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022300/048/sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

[Tom]

00z GFS...continues to slide the snow band SE....

[Tom]

Different look...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017022300/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Grizzcoat]

DSM might get more then the N side of the Twin Cities--

[Money]

SE trend is legit only question is when will it stop

[St Paul Storm]

Welp, it's been fun tracking this thing. The flag is waived. Go get 'em gosaints and those to the SE. Enjoy it!

[Snoorani]

We might finally crack 1 inch marks lol

[gabel23]

SE trend is legit only question is when will it stop

I'll take another 50 miles and call it good! 

[Madtown]

Does the trend hold is the question.

[james1976]

I could throw a rock and hit that 12" line. Nice

[Tom]

N IA may be in for blizzard conditions...James may be rockin...looks like the GFS is showing less of an occlusion...

[gabel23]

I could throw a rock and hit that 12" line. Nice

That is how it has been for me all winter, in 4 winter storms literally 20 miles away from me. Sorry to be selfish, but keep coming south and east!! Crazy how sharp the snow gradients have been this winter. 

[bud2380]

In my experience models frequently trend SE as we get near the event only to shift back NW. Well see.

[NEJeremy]

Wow!! RGEM with 8" at Omaha Eppley and 15" at Fremont 20 miles away GFS with 4.5" and 7" respectively. The NAM being north is what scares me, but really seems to be an outlier at this point. 

[gosaints]

The track of the low is actually very very very similar to 18z.  The big difference in the low track is it is a few hours faster

[Money]

In my experience models frequently trend SE as we get near the event only to shift back NW. Well see.

 

Agreed. But we had a strong NW trend a few days ago so I wonder if this is a correction back.

 

Who knows though. I don't even think the low has developed yet 

[gosaints]

N IA may be in for blizzard conditions...James may be rockin...looks like the GFS is showing less of an occlusion...

Hence the faster solution

[gabel23]

The track of the low is actually very very very similar to 18z.  The big difference in the low track is it is a few hours faster

The 00Z, 18z GFS, and 00Z are almost identical in placement. The only difference is tonights GFS is faster. 

[Grizzcoat]

I'd laugh considerably if this winds up being DSM biggest snowfall of the season (2.6")  -- after a week in the 60's and 70's and never ending warm , with people in spring mode forgetting it's FEB-- hell yeah. 30 more miles and it becomes a bigger deal that most are not going to deal with very well.

[gabel23]

In my experience models frequently trend SE as we get near the event only to shift back NW. Well see.

Hoping your wrong, these are one of those storms where changes might occur 12 hours out. I'm hoping the southeast trend continues. 

[james1976]

Wow!! RGEM with 8" at Omaha Eppley and 15" at Fremont 20 miles away GFS with 4.5" and 7" respectively. The NAM being north is what scares me, but really seems to be an outlier at this point. 

NAM has been coming south

[bud2380]

I'd love to see this keep trending SE but I've been burned a million times with those SE trends.

 

Ggem also shifted. Low runs through northern Missouri and WC Illinois

[Money]

GEM is similar to 12z but a tad SE with snowfall. Looks faster than 12z a little bit.

[Madtown]

Can't believe MSN is in thegame

[james1976]

Bud may end up with advisory yet!

[gosaints]

GGEM similar track to 12 z but also faster

[gosaints]

GGEM identical low placement at 48 as it was at 60 on 12z

[Money]

GGEM similar track to 12 z but also faster

 

heaviest axis of snow is farther SE tho right?

[gosaints]

heaviest axis of snow is farther SE tho right?

Yes that my biggest takeaway from the runs tonight.  The track of the GFS and GGEM are basically the same.  The snow shield is further southeast.  There is no stall anywhere on the Iowa Missouri border which seems to keep the snow shield from gaining as much latitude

[gosaints]

And the models are colder which is amazing to me.  The NAM is the last holdout on the warmth

[Money]

0z GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022300/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

Wow. Ggem even has 6" down to i80 in Iowa

[Grizzcoat]