February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[NEJeremy]

When I look at the 17Z SPC mesolanysis, it shows the surface low is at 994mb. Comparing to the 16Z runs of the HRRR and RAP, location is good but they both had the SLP at 996, so it appears the current obs are about 2mb lower. precip maps on the HRRR and RAP are matching up pretty good with radar, although the current radar has more snow on the southern edge in central Nebraska so maybe that's a good sign

[gabel23]

 

We are really riding the edge here in Lincoln. I don't think we'll do well, unfortunately. However, people in a county just to my west look like they can get whalloped. This thing nudges a tad SE and we are in business. Omaha and Lincoln nail biter. My guess is we get marginal amounts, and Omaha ends up getting over 4". Praying the RGEM is on the money. 

 

I know the feeling! All the snow storms we have had this year I have been riding the edge while you guys in Lincoln got a nice cold rain. I'm hoping the Gem wins out so we all can finally enjoy a storm!! 

[gosaints]

When I look at the 17Z SPC mesolanysis, it shows the surface low is at 994mb. Comparing to the 16Z runs of the HRRR and RAP, location is good but they both had the SLP at 996, so it appears the current obs are about 2mb lower. precip maps on the HRRR and RAP are matching up pretty good with radar, although the current radar has more snow on the southern edge in central Nebraska so maybe that's a good sign

Ya the 991 pressure reading was an.individual pressure plot

[Madtown]

Sitting at 40atm predicted high of 49.

[james1976]

I have noticed that weather underground, twc, and accuweather all have me and James at a high of 32 on Friday instead of 38 forecast by nws. That will make a huge difference!

You in Waterloo? Im in Aplington

[Bellona]

You in Waterloo? Im in Aplington

Yes, if u know where Byrnes Golf course or it's called Irv Warren Golf course now, I live directly across from it. Which also means we get hit by golfballs all spring, summer, and fall. Lol

[NEJeremy]

Ya the 991 pressure reading was an.individual pressure plot

Yep the SPC mesoanalysis is a pretty broad map

[james1976]

Yes, if u know where Byrnes Golf course or it's called Irv Warren Golf course now, I live directly across from it. Which also means we get hit by golfballs all spring, summer, and fall. Lol

Lol. I think im familiar with Byrnes Park!

[Tom]

12z GEFS...snow mean

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017022312/066/snod.conus.png

[Stormgeek]

Looks like the low pressure is tracking as modeled so far. Guess that means I can officially lose hope of the models missing something. Congrats Saints.

[gosaints]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_pres.gif

[Tom]

Latest RPM keeps it mainly snow from MSN on north.  Madison is riding the edge and I think from the MKE north burbs on north should do wel..

[gosaints]

Blizzard warning update on the way

[james1976]

GFS and mean are really hammering WI

[james1976]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_pres.gif

Diggin pretty well

[gosaints]

Euro has a 993 on the eastern Iowa Missouri border at hour 24

[Tom]

12z Euro looking colder for C IA...

[gosaints]

EURO still impressive with 12+ totals over a wide area.  Max totals down and the band got narrower from both sides

[james1976]

Gosaints officially in blizz warning

[NEJeremy]

what will be interesting for me is to see how things are when the changeover occurs. The HRRR has been showing convection near the rain/snow line and has very heavy snow rates over Omaha at the time of the changeover due to convection. Perhaps some thundersnow tonight?!

[GDR]

Crush city for gosaints!

[NEJeremy]

EURO still impressive with 12+ totals over a wide area.  Max totals down and the band got narrower from both sides

what does the it show over Nebraska(Omaha)?

[gosaints]

KSPD in colorado with a 990 reading at 18z

 

Basically right were the windstreams indicate the lowest pressure is where KSPD is

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_stream.gif

[gosaints]

what does the it show over Nebraska(Omaha)?

Where the band set up is identical to last night.  Totals much lower there though

[NEJeremy]

 

 

Does anyone have Euro maps or text?! Thanks in advance!

Anyone know what site this Euro snowfall map is from? I was all the sudden thinking that map was something I had access to before from a site I can't remember. I was thinking it wasn't from a pay site, but may be wrong...

 

EDIT: oops map didn't show up. it was the Euro snowfall map that clint posted last night

[Tom]

I just saw the expanded look on the RPM and it hammers N/NE IA and GoSaints area...James area looks like it does real well...the rain/snow line is from MSN/MKE on north.  

 

Edit: DSM does well when it switches over to snow

[james1976]

I just saw the expanded look on the RPM and it hammers N/NE IA and GoSaints area...James area looks like it does real well...the rain/snow line is from MSN/MKE on north.

 

Edit: DSM does well when it switches over to snow

I like hearing this!

[Madtown]

Riding the line, 3" of slop is my thinking.

[james1976]

Is the Euro snowfall map pretty close to 0z run?

[WBadgersW]

Riding the line, 3" of slop is my thinking.

We were so close.

[Tom]

Reports of 3"/hr snowfall rates in NE

[gosaints]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/sfcobs/sfcgif19Z_large.gif

[Stormgeek]

Even if I am not going to get crushed it is still fun seeing what the system does in relation to what the models predict. Even better would be that they get it wrong by 50 miles

[Jaycee]

High resolution models are sucky for Lincoln and Omaha so far. RGEM needs to pull through. Really hope it's right on this one.

[NEJeremy]

18Z RAP has the 6" line down to Omaha and it goes southwest from there. I don't think it's quite to Lincoln but not too far away

[Money]

Milwaukee has to have some sort of headline issued this aft

[Madtown]

Guessing a wwa for the counties north of Dane-milwaukee

[james1976]

Hows that NAM?

[bud2380]

NAM wasn't great for eastern IA.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022318/045/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

NAM might be a touch better for me. Still weak on south side of snow area.