TT-SEA Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 A skiff of snow overnight... but the real story is the sun! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Nice! Ended up with just over 1" here. Seems like your location is starting to perform a little more to your liking.Yeah, it was a rough start, but now I know a little more of what to expect given the type of situation. Weak outflow dependant events won't deliver here, where as they might dump on Bellingham. When the upper levels are cold however, the elevation here helps a lot. Would be nice if Bellingham and locations to the south were getting snow, always nice when places around you score as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 You mind posting the wxbell map? The first one is through day 10 and the second through day 16. Crazy s**t! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Yup, right now the GFS is on its own with a semi- historic pattern. Would be nice for the other models to jump on board. The ECMWF ensemble has been slowly moving toward the GFS. The GFS progression is perfectly reasonable...especially given the precedent this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 The ECMWF ensemble has been slowly moving toward the GFS. The GFS progression is perfectly reasonable...especially given the precedent this winter.I will give you that. We have definitely grown accustomed to things taking the colder path this winter. And this wouldn't be the first time the Euro had given in to the GFS in regard to cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Funny, Seattle NWS was talking yesterday about the sun going away until further notice. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Funny, Seattle NWS was talking yesterday about the sun going away until further notice. Screenshot_1.pngThat photograph seems to be contradictory!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 That photograph seems to be contradictory!!! Pics don't lie! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Pics don't lie!Fake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Great discussion by jaya this morning. .SHORT TERM...An expansive cold 517 DAM 500-mb low centered near48N 131W is producing widespread showers offshore. The air massassociated with this upper level feature is quite cold andunstable aloft with 500 mb temperatures around -40C at its core. Afew lightning strikes are being seen offshore with the highertopped cells.The cold air mass moved into Western Washington late last night.Showers with a convergence zone from about Port Townsend northeastacross Whidbey Island into Anacortes, Burlington and areas to theeast and north of Mount Vernon all had some wet snow. DOT web camsshow an area with snow covering the ground and a spotter east ofI-5 in Skagit county reported 2 inches overnight. This area ofconvergence continues to produce wet snow, but no additionalaccumulations are expected today as daytime heating lifts the snowlevels a bit.The next area of interest is an instant occlusion or deformationband that is wrapping around the offshore low, now over theoffshore waters. This band is expected to spread onto the coastlate this afternoon or early this evening, then into the interiorlater tonight. By early Sunday morning, this band will pushnorthward into the north interior zones and weaken. Latest GFS andNAM solutions show temperatures too warm this afternoon forlowland snow along the central coast and through the Chehalis Gap.But later this evening, temperatures will fall and snow levelswill drop to 200-400 feet and will give snow showers, mainly tohills, from Seattle and Bellevue west across the Kitsap Peninsulaand onto the north coast. This band of more organized snow showerswill then lift northward across the Everett area and AdmiraltyInlet on its way into the north interior. Hilltops will see up to2 inches of snow by Sunday morning, and the northern interiorzones from Mount Vernon or so northward to the Canadian bordercould see a bit more. Will look at possibly issuing a winterweather advisory later tonight into Sunday morning for areas northof a Seattle to 20 miles north of Hoquiam line in the lowland for1-3 inches of snow, with most accumulations away from major bodiesof water and on hills above 300 feet or so.Any snow that falls in the lowlands Sunday morning will quicklymelt away in warm March sunshine. High temperatures will be in thelower 40s on Sunday.The upper low moves across the area Sunday night and Mondaymorning. The GFS, and to a greater degree the NAM12, show thedevelopment of an area of convergence from north of Seattle toEverett and Arlington in the interior westward to the northernOlympic Peninsula during this period. Some areas on hilltops abovea couple hundred feet could see accumulating snow with thisconvergence zone, and accumulations could be locally significantif the convergence zone stalls in one location. At this time it istoo early to nail anything down with this feature.Finally late Monday night and Tuesday another more organized lowmoves across southern portions of Washington or northern Oregon.Could we get more widespread snow with this feature? The incomingGFS shows the potential for a couple of inches from about Seattlenorthward early Tuesday as the low moves by to the south. Lowlevel thicknesses and 925 mb temperatures shown by the 12Z modelsolutions are colder than previous runs. Again, it is too early tosay how things will play out with this feature, but it will be oneto watch closely. Albrecht 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Sunny here too... Time to celebrate sunshine in this land of constant troughs! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Great discussion by jaya this morning. .SHORT TERM...An expansive cold 517 DAM 500-mb low centered near 48N 131W is producing widespread showers offshore. The air mass associated with this upper level feature is quite cold and unstable aloft with 500 mb temperatures around -40C at its core. A few lightning strikes are being seen offshore with the higher topped cells. The cold air mass moved into Western Washington late last night. Showers with a convergence zone from about Port Townsend northeast across Whidbey Island into Anacortes, Burlington and areas to the east and north of Mount Vernon all had some wet snow. DOT web cams show an area with snow covering the ground and a spotter east of I-5 in Skagit county reported 2 inches overnight. This area of convergence continues to produce wet snow, but no additional accumulations are expected today as daytime heating lifts the snow levels a bit. The next area of interest is an instant occlusion or deformation band that is wrapping around the offshore low, now over the offshore waters. This band is expected to spread onto the coast late this afternoon or early this evening, then into the interior later tonight. By early Sunday morning, this band will push northward into the north interior zones and weaken. Latest GFS and NAM solutions show temperatures too warm this afternoon for lowland snow along the central coast and through the Chehalis Gap. But later this evening, temperatures will fall and snow levels will drop to 200-400 feet and will give snow showers, mainly to hills, from Seattle and Bellevue west across the Kitsap Peninsula and onto the north coast. This band of more organized snow showers will then lift northward across the Everett area and Admiralty Inlet on its way into the north interior. Hilltops will see up to 2 inches of snow by Sunday morning, and the northern interior zones from Mount Vernon or so northward to the Canadian border could see a bit more. Will look at possibly issuing a winter weather advisory later tonight into Sunday morning for areas north of a Seattle to 20 miles north of Hoquiam line in the lowland for 1-3 inches of snow, with most accumulations away from major bodies of water and on hills above 300 feet or so. Any snow that falls in the lowlands Sunday morning will quickly melt away in warm March sunshine. High temperatures will be in the lower 40s on Sunday. The upper low moves across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. The GFS, and to a greater degree the NAM12, show the development of an area of convergence from north of Seattle to Everett and Arlington in the interior westward to the northern Olympic Peninsula during this period. Some areas on hilltops above a couple hundred feet could see accumulating snow with this convergence zone, and accumulations could be locally significant if the convergence zone stalls in one location. At this time it is too early to nail anything down with this feature. Finally late Monday night and Tuesday another more organized low moves across southern portions of Washington or northern Oregon. Could we get more widespread snow with this feature? The incoming GFS shows the potential for a couple of inches from about Seattle northward early Tuesday as the low moves by to the south. Low level thicknesses and 925 mb temperatures shown by the 12Z model solutions are colder than previous runs. Again, it is too early to say how things will play out with this feature, but it will be one to watch closely. Albrecht Many chances for sure. I think he might be emphasizing north of Seattle too much though. Most models show plenty south of Seattle also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Funny, Seattle NWS was talking yesterday about the sun going away until further notice. Screenshot_1.png OMG sun! We've never seen that before. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 There are 2 ensemble camps. One that really starts cooling things off by the end of next week, the other delays the cool down a couple days. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Great discussion by jaya this morning. .SHORT TERM...An expansive cold 517 DAM 500-mb low centered near48N 131W is producing widespread showers offshore. The air massassociated with this upper level feature is quite cold andunstable aloft with 500 mb temperatures around -40C at its core. Afew lightning strikes are being seen offshore with the highertopped cells. The cold air mass moved into Western Washington late last night.Showers with a convergence zone from about Port Townsend northeastacross Whidbey Island into Anacortes, Burlington and areas to theeast and north of Mount Vernon all had some wet snow. DOT web camsshow an area with snow covering the ground and a spotter east ofI-5 in Skagit county reported 2 inches overnight. This area ofconvergence continues to produce wet snow, but no additionalaccumulations are expected today as daytime heating lifts the snowlevels a bit. The next area of interest is an instant occlusion or deformationband that is wrapping around the offshore low, now over theoffshore waters. This band is expected to spread onto the coastlate this afternoon or early this evening, then into the interiorlater tonight. By early Sunday morning, this band will pushnorthward into the north interior zones and weaken. Latest GFS andNAM solutions show temperatures too warm this afternoon forlowland snow along the central coast and through the Chehalis Gap.But later this evening, temperatures will fall and snow levelswill drop to 200-400 feet and will give snow showers, mainly tohills, from Seattle and Bellevue west across the Kitsap Peninsulaand onto the north coast. This band of more organized snow showerswill then lift northward across the Everett area and AdmiraltyInlet on its way into the north interior. Hilltops will see up to2 inches of snow by Sunday morning, and the northern interiorzones from Mount Vernon or so northward to the Canadian bordercould see a bit more. Will look at possibly issuing a winterweather advisory later tonight into Sunday morning for areas northof a Seattle to 20 miles north of Hoquiam line in the lowland for1-3 inches of snow, with most accumulations away from major bodiesof water and on hills above 300 feet or so. Any snow that falls in the lowlands Sunday morning will quicklymelt away in warm March sunshine. High temperatures will be in thelower 40s on Sunday. The upper low moves across the area Sunday night and Mondaymorning. The GFS, and to a greater degree the NAM12, show thedevelopment of an area of convergence from north of Seattle toEverett and Arlington in the interior westward to the northernOlympic Peninsula during this period. Some areas on hilltops abovea couple hundred feet could see accumulating snow with thisconvergence zone, and accumulations could be locally significantif the convergence zone stalls in one location. At this time it istoo early to nail anything down with this feature. Finally late Monday night and Tuesday another more organized lowmoves across southern portions of Washington or northern Oregon.Could we get more widespread snow with this feature? The incomingGFS shows the potential for a couple of inches from about Seattlenorthward early Tuesday as the low moves by to the south. Lowlevel thicknesses and 925 mb temperatures shown by the 12Z modelsolutions are colder than previous runs. Again, it is too early tosay how things will play out with this feature, but it will be oneto watch closely. AlbrechtThanks for the great writeup Jaya! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 The WRF doesn't have much credibility for me this winter but a final event like this in PDX Sunday night would be great. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017030412/images_d3/or_snow72.84.0000.gif 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 The WRF doesn't have much credibility for me this winter but a final event like this in PDX Sunday night would be great. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017030412/images_d3/or_snow72.84.0000.gifYea that would be a 2 foot winter for part of the metro. Would go down in the books for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 The WRF doesn't have much credibility for me this winter but a final event like this in PDX Sunday night would be great. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017030412/images_d3/or_snow72.84.0000.gif D**n, WRF not backing down. This would be 6-10" for the S. Salem hills. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Hopefully the 12z Euro blinks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Hopefully the 12z Euro blinks!The right way too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Hopefully the 12z Euro blinks! Does this count? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030412/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Does this count? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030412/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.pngOnly Snowfall maps count Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 42 degrees and moderate rain. Ahhh the start of spring! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Does this count? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017030412/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.pngLooks like a step in the right direction. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro Wow. It's official. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 The ECMWF is now showing a colder solution than the GFS. It's showing what would be the coldest upper level airmass of the season so far if it were to verify. Meanwhile, it's partly cloudy here now with the offshore flow starting up. Tonight will be interesting but there's a good chance the deformation starts breaking apart as it makes its way north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2V0iNzIgjI We need to get DJ Khaled to say Euro Alert on his snapchat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2V0iNzIgjI We need to get DJ Khaled to say Euro Alert on his snapchat!Major Euro alert. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Yeah, it was a rough start, but now I know a little more of what to expect given the type of situation. Weak outflow dependant events won't deliver here, where as they might dump on Bellingham. When the upper levels are cold however, the elevation here helps a lot. Would be nice if Bellingham and locations to the south were getting snow, always nice when places around you score as well. I figured your area would start to do well in a cold onshore flow pattern like this, it's probably pretty ideal for cold air damming over there and the elevation fends of low level warmth from the Strait/enhances precipitation. We need it much cooler at the upper levels for something more widespread, we still haven't experienced what I would consider an Arctic upper level airmass (the sort we saw in Nov 2006 for instance). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Many chances for sure. I think he might be emphasizing north of Seattle too much though. Most models show plenty south of Seattle also.I hope your are right. I would sure like to pad my anemic snowfall totals for the winter so far. It is sure amazing how the switch did flip to cold once December started. Definitely fun to be following snow chances in March, though I know many people are ready for spring. Just not me yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 I just need a bit over an inch of snow to get to 10 inches, we had a trace this morning. Still though, this winter in my opinion has been kind of blah overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 I just need a bit over an inch of snow to get to 10 inches, we had a trace this morning. Still though, this winter in my opinion has been kind of blah overall.It's been very cold on average but I have only had 25 inches of snow and in 2008 56 and 2007 had 49. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 It's been very cold on average but I have only had 25 inches of snow and in 2008 56 and 2007 had 49. for how cold this winter has been, sure has underperformed in snow totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 It's too bad we didn't enter this pattern in January.... snow day and night and day and night minus the melting in between 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 It's too bad we didn't enter this pattern in January.... snow day and night and day and night minus the melting in between We can always count on March...too bad we can't buy a snowflake in January! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 for how cold this winter has been, sure has underperformed in snow totals.There have been many similarly cold winters with moderate snow totals, historically. Cold doesn't always guarantee snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 There have been many similarly cold winters with moderate snow totals, historically. Cold doesn't always guarantee snow. Yup I agree. Would be awesome if every winter was like this with multiple chances for snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 4, 2017 Report Share Posted March 4, 2017 Yup I agree. Would be awesome if every winter was like this with multiple chances for snow...Agreed. It's been really enjoyable. Crazy to think this was probably a close to average winter around here in 1850. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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