March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

True, the airmass we will see Saturday-Monday is really about a once every 5 year or so March airmass. The 18z had thickness bottoming out at 518 at Salem. 

 

Once every five years seems about right. Although if colder runs are to be believed the longevity of the cold could bump it to a higher echelon.

[epiceast]

True, the airmass we will see Saturday-Monday is really about a once every 5 year or so March airmass. The 18z had thickness bottoming out at 518 at Salem. 

NWS employees went to sleep in 2012 and just woke up, so their senses of what is a normal March airmass are a little off.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday night/Monday looks like snow levels to the valley floor on the 00z. 

[Jesse]

NWS employees went to sleep in 2012 and just woke up, so their senses of what is a normal March airmass are a little off.

 

Before that they were only awake in 2009, 2006 and 2002.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value Monday looks like a 33/30 type day up here...

[FroYoBro]

Wow. Looks pretty snowy for some areas. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So Sunday morning has trended a little less marginal than it was looking like it would go. It's evolved into more of an outflow pattern with 925mbs going down to about -3~4C and 850mb around -7C, very similar to what we saw this past Monday. However, the low looks a bit stronger and there won't be as much low level drying ahead of it; lots of uncertainty around where the precipitation will end up as usual. Sure would be nice to get a weekend snowfall for a change.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

[snow_wizard]

So Sunday morning has trended a little less marginal than it was looking like it would go. It's evolved into more of an outflow pattern with 925mbs going down to about -3~4C and 850mb around -7C, very similar to what we saw this past Monday. However, the low looks a bit stronger and there won't be as much low level drying ahead of it; lots of uncertainty around where the precipitation will end up as usual. Sure would be nice to get a weekend snowfall for a change.

 

Those numbers are surely good enough for lowland snow. The 522 thickness line is way south of us and surface gradients are weak offshore. I need this to get my winter total over 10 inches so the stakes are high!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Those numbers are surely good enough for lowland snow. The 522 thickness line is way south of us and surface gradients are weak offshore. I need this to get my winter total over 10 inches so the stakes are high!

 

Yep, as we saw on Monday that atmospheric profile can easily produce snow, the timing with the first bands coming through in the morning and backwash showers (on that side of the Sound) coming in during the evening will also help.

 

I'm surprised you haven't broken the 10" mark, I would have thought the Monday snowfall would have done it. Should be 2 or 3 more shots in the next few days to pick up more.

[HighlandExperience]

Those numbers are surely good enough for lowland snow. The 522 thickness line is way south of us and surface gradients are weak offshore. I need this to get my winter total over 10 inches so the stakes are high!

 

Some potential on the 00z. 

[Timmy]

Wrf still has some accumulation in the metro by 4am Sunday. 8" up here

[Brennan]

0z is good. Low pressure west/south of us for several days. I had 3.5-4" fall midday this past week, and this upcoming weekend looks just as good or better in terms of putting the L in the sweet spot. I can realistically see 3-6" totals pretty widespread for Whatcom County. The difference maker could be the time of day the heaviest showers fall too. Hoping for the best! .... Almost expecting it at this point. 

 

Based off of the lack of activity on the forum I actually believe that most people are ready for spring. 

[Timmy]

Wrf shows close to 16" of snow by mid Monday here. Wow

[HighlandExperience]

Suprised more people are not posting. Hopefully the euro brings more snow over central Sound.

[Jesse]

0z is good. Low pressure west/south of us for several days. I had 3.5-4" of snow this past week, and this upcoming weekend looks just as good or better. Based off of the lack of activity on the forum I actually believe that most people are ready for spring.

I'm down for more winter. Let's do this!

[seattleweatherguy]

Suprised more people are not posting. Hopefully the euro brings more snow over central Sound.

Because central sound is not in it or snow shadowed?

[luminen]

my area is progged for 5-8" on Sunday and 3-5" on Monday. Hmm, probably won't see that much but hopefully a few inches. The weekend after this one is looking promising as well. 

[Winterdog]

I'm sitting at 9.5" this winter.  I suppose I could say I've hit double digits when I use a decimal but I'd rather get another half inch this weekend.  I'd say I have a 50/50 shot.  I'm quite ready for a season change but like most of you I'm a hopeless snow lover.  I'll take it whenever and wherever it falls.

[snow_wizard]

Because central sound is not in it or snow shadowed?

I'm not sure I buy the shadow. The WRF seems to be over emphasizing it.

[Guest Sounder]

Shut up.    Rude comment.

 

Why would you bring up economics in a discussion about preferring nicer weather now?   That has nothing do with your economic situation.

Did someone spill your starbucks today?

[TT-SEA]

Did someone spill your starbucks today?

 

No!   I did not go to Starbucks today.   Or even this year.  

[HighlandExperience]

No! I did not go to Starbucks today. Or even this year.

Are you Mormon?

[epiceast]

No!   I did not go to Starbucks today.   Or even this year.  

Do you brew black drip coffee like a good 'ol real American Midwestern man? Or do you go to another fancy Seattle coffeeshop?

[Guest Sounder]

Do you brew black drip coffee like a good 'ol real American Midwestern man? Or do you go to another fancy Seattle coffeeshop?

Go drop some molly and talk about how Excision changed your life.

[epiceast]

Go drop some molly and talk about how Excision changed your life.

Uncalled for. I only drink homemade coffee.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1525-late-winter-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=226141

[TT-SEA]

Do you brew black drip coffee like a good 'ol real American Midwestern man? Or do you go to another fancy Seattle coffeeshop?

Brew my own.

[TT-SEA]

Are you Mormon?

No sir. I love coffee.

[ShawniganLake]

6z alert!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6z alert!

Holy cow

[Timmy]

Holy cow

What is happening ?!?!?!?

[snow_wizard]

The 6z is an amazing change from previous and it has strong ensemble support. Potentially historic cold wave being depicted. After such a cold winter this would be extraordinary.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is happening ?!?!?!?

 

This...And it is not a major outlier. It is at the cold end of the ensembles yes, but it is not alone...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

[epiceast]

This...And it is not a major outlier. It is at the cold end of the ensembles yes, but it is not alone...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

Portland snow drought never got a chance to develop this winter!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Aside from the potential craziness next weekend things have trended a bit colder in the short range. The upper levels are more than sufficient for snow with precipitation looping through on Sunday morning as per the 12z GFS. If this one busts it will more likely be due to a lack of moisture rather than marginal temperatures it seems:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030312/gfs_T850_nwus_10.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ALERT

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png