March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Not nearly as good as the 12z or the GFS. Still a lot of potential though.

Thank you

[pscz1140]

Any word on the euro?

 

850s not as cold late next week but the blocking looks even better. Eternal perhaps.

[Jesse]

850s not as cold late next week but the blocking looks even better. Eternal perhaps.

Budless trees into July!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not nearly as good as the 12z or the GFS. Still a lot of potential though.

 

Looks almost identical to the progression going into this weekend, the end result would be very similar if that verified.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Couple sprinkles here... precip winding down. Snow advisory seems a little excessive tonight... at least in my area.

 

Snowfall warnings seem to be a death sentence for getting meaningful snow around here. EC pulled the trigger way too early issuing a warning before tonight's mesoscale runs came out. We have a snowfall warning in place tonight, meanwhile it's 38F with light rain and nothing promising looking on the radar. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a flake out of this, but it will dump down on Monday in an unexpected snow shower on my wake to work, ha.

 

It will probably switch over to snow later in the night in your area, I'm sure the nearby mountains will generate some heavier orographic snow showers.

[ShawniganLake]

Snowfall warnings seem to be a death sentence for getting meaningful snow around here. EC pulled the trigger way too early issuing a warning before tonight's mesoscale runs came out. We have a snowfall warning in place tonight, meanwhile it's 38F with light rain and nothing promising looking on the radar. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a flake out of this, but it will dump down on Monday in an unexpected snow shower on my wake to work, ha.

 

It will probably switch over to snow later in the night in your area, I'm sure the nearby mountains will generate some heavier orographic snow showers.

Just started snowing here. It's 34F though, so this light stuff won't amount to much.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just started snowing here. It's 34F though, so this light stuff won't amount to much.

 

You're probably far enough north that you'll end up with at least an inch or two. After seeing the latest mesoscale runs I think Victoria is screwed. It seems like it came earlier than forecast so it clouded over at the worst possible time with the lower levels at their warmest and the persistent band of precipitation has been shifted well north. EC was picking up on the earlier modeling that had the heaviest bands over the South Island, I suspect the Nanaimo - Comox area ends up the real winner here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About an inch of snow so far this evening. 32 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 00z ensemble is unreal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So yeah...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[ShawniganLake]

You're probably far enough north that you'll end up with at least an inch or two. After seeing the latest mesoscale runs I think Victoria is screwed. It seems like it came earlier than forecast so it clouded over at the worst possible time with the lower levels at their warmest and the persistent band of precipitation has been shifted well north. EC was picking up on the earlier modeling that had the heaviest bands over the South Island, I suspect the Nanaimo - Comox area ends up the real winner here.

You are probably right. That band is really developing on radar as it heads north. Picked up about 3/4" so far. Temp has dropped to 33F, so it's pretty wet snow.

[Brennan]

Bout to get some snow now. Lots of moisture rolling through tonight up here. SOME locals in whatcom county will see a couple inches.

[Tenochtitlan]

very light wet snow now...wonder if it will amount to anything.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You are probably right. That band is really developing on radar as it heads north. Picked up about 3/4" so far. Temp has dropped to 33F, so it's pretty wet snow.

 

Down to 32.5F here now with moderate snow falling. Everything but the roads is covered now with about 1/4~1/2", if it's like this here in Victoria it must be nuts up in Shawnigan. At least this should prevent some embarrassment for EC on their snowfall forecast, it looks pretty clear most of Victoria will wake up to at least a bit of snow cover (but I still have a hard time seeing 2~4" looking at the radar). Less than 12 hours out and this is already another major bust for the WRF (it showed virtually no precip of any type here in the first 24 hours).

[MossMan]

No snow and 35.

[Brennan]

[van city]

Dumping snow in Metro Vancouver.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not really anymore precip last night after about 1am. About 1.5" on the ground 30 degrees

[epiceast]

Cold front stalled. 32F Snowed about .3" of water at the airport and maybe 1" here. Was really windy and 33-34 as it was passing through early AM here. Biggest surprise storm of the year. Still snowing hard, and it looks like it will be snowing until mid morning.

[epiceast]

Shadowed
Yea it was a warm one. SPC says 850mb temps were above freezing, and a lolo pass(5200ft) was 30-31 degrees for the entire duration of event.

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 32.5F here now with moderate snow falling. Everything but the roads is covered now with about 1/4~1/2", if it's like this here in Victoria it must be nuts up in Shawnigan. At least this should prevent some embarrassment for EC on their snowfall forecast, it looks pretty clear most of Victoria will wake up to at least a bit of snow cover (but I still have a hard time seeing 2~4" looking at the radar). Less than 12 hours out and this is already another major bust for the WRF (it showed virtually no precip of any type here in the first 24 hours).

Ended up with 2.25" up here this morning. Looks like the heaviest band missed us to the east. Very pretty snow though. It was wet and breezy and stuck to everything.

[TT-SEA]

Ended up with 2.25" up here this morning. Looks like the heaviest band missed us to the east. Very pretty snow though. It was wet and breezy and stuck to everything.

 

Yeah... the snow advisory did end up working out in my area as well.  Although it looks like only my area and Tiger Summit actually have snow on the ground.   Once again the NWS issues a snow advisory for millions of people but only a few thousand of us actually see snow and we are so used to it that we don't need to be advised.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good call by the Nws not putting up an advisory here:

[TT-SEA]

Guessing around 2.5 or maybe 3 inches here.    Seasonal total over 75 inches now.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah... the snow advisory did end up working out in my area as well. Although it looks like only my area and Tiger Summit actually have snow on the ground. Once again the NWS issue a snow advisory for millions of people but only a few thousand of us actually see snow and we are so used to it that we don't need to be advised.

Temps were pretty borderline, doesn't look like much stuck around at sea level.

 

The highest total I have heard reported is 4" in parts of metro Vancouver

[TT-SEA]

The NWS should start issuing 'No Snow' advisories for elevations about 800 feet when conditions warrant... it would be more interesting to know that it won't be snowing overnight at this point.   

 

I pretty much assume it will be snowing every night.    It has snowed on 6 of the last 9 nights here.

[ShawniganLake]

The NWS should start issuing 'No Snow' advisories for elevations about 800 feet when conditions warrant... it would be more interesting to know that it won't be snowing overnight at this point.

 

I pretty much assume it will be snowing every night.

Looks like more of the same upcoming too. Showery airmass with 500ft snow levels?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of 6am Brookings, OR on the extreme south coast was reporting Light snow and 34 degrees. Roseburg was also reporting snow. 

[The Swamp]

Shower and 800-1200' snow levels.

[MossMan]

Well that was a dud. If next weekend fizzles as well then I will be more than ready for sun and warmth. 35 degree rain is something I am done with...since I have had it basically all winter.

[Dave]

It is snowing in Eugene.  33 degrees.  We have received officially one dusting.  Nothing sticking to the pavement, but it is white elsewhere.  Too bad the goods arrived at daybreak.

[GHweatherChris]

Have a 1/2 inch on the ground and snowing moderately.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is snowing in Eugene. 33 degrees. We have received officially one dusting. Nothing sticking to the pavement, but it is white elsewhere. Too bad the goods arrived at daybreak.

Overnight tonight could be good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cams show sticking snow all the way from Port Orford south to Brookings on the Southern Oregon coast, currently snowing in the inland southern Oregon valleys at Grants Pass and Roseburg.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is pretty astounding...

 

[MossMan]

Snowing!

[Jesse]

Cams show sticking snow all the way from Port Orford south to Brookings on the Southern Oregon coast, currently snowing in the inland southern Oregon valleys at Grants Pass and Roseburg.

 

Sounds like another case of Portland stealing all of Seattle's snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Glorious crystal clear morning here. Great day fly a drone

[TT-SEA]

I have seen uglier mornings here in March...