March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

Sure is getting snowy just East of Everett in the CZ.

 

These cams are less than 5 miles apart and at the same elevation:

 

[Phil]

Looking back at ESRL, the reanalyzed 850mb temps (which are interpolated, but go back to the mid-1800s) for the month of March don't drop to -47C until 1890. Then, you have to go back to 1879 for the only other occurrence. That's insanity. If we reach -48C, that would be the coldest since at least 1862!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Since the snow started yesterday evening I have had 11.5", There was also 1.5" that fell Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is what the past 3 days have looked like, todays #'s are through 6pm.

 

Saturday: 42/32  1.0" of snow

Sunday  : 37/30   3.5" 

Monday : 38/31   8.5" 

[TT-SEA]

My son decided this was a good evening to go skiing with some friends.   

 

[epiceast]

Snowing here tonight, WWA up. Lawn south of the house is covered again.

[snow_wizard]

Picked up another half inch here today as I climb inexorably toward double digits for snowfall total. Quite amazingly I have had 11 days with measurable snowfall since Dec 1 and another 14 days where at least some flakes fell from the sky. A total of 25 days!

[TT-SEA]

Picked up another half inch here today as I climb inexorably toward double digits for snowfall total. Quite amazingly I have had 11 days with measurable snowfall since Dec 1 and another 14 days where at least some flakes fell from the sky. A total of 25 days!

 

The 500-foot difference in our elevation is simply astounding in years like this one... given that we are so close as the crow flies.

[bainbridgekid]

The 500-foot difference in our elevation is simply astounding in years like this one... given that we are so close as the crow flies.

To be fair, it's more like a 700 feet difference. 

 

I'd hazard a guess that each 100 feet of elevation here probably makes a 1-2" difference in snowfall per year independent from any other factors like proximity to the CZ, shadowing, upslope, and outflow.

[snow_wizard]

Looking good for some snow tonight over the East Puget Sound Lowlands.  In fact the NWS has a one word forecast for early morning...snow.

 

In the near term there are some decent looking showers that appear aimed for this area over SW WA right now.

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, it's more like a 700 feet difference. 

 

I'd hazard a guess that each 100 feet of elevation here probably makes a 1-2" difference in snowfall per year independent from any other factors like proximity to the CZ, shadowing, upslope, and outflow.

 

I thought he was at 500 feet?   

 

Our property is between 1050-1100 feet.    Maybe it is almost a 700-foot difference if he is at 400 feet.

 

Still just amazes me.   The difference between here and even the Issaquah Highlands is also astounding.   And they are almost as high.

[snow_wizard]

The 500-foot difference in our elevation is simply astounding in years like this one... given that we are so close as the crow flies.

 

It has actually been a moisture problem as much as lack of cold.  This area could have easily gotten double what it has seen this winter if we had gotten some good breaks.

[TT-SEA]

It has actually been a moisture problem as much as lack of cold.  This area could have easily gotten double what it has seen this winter if we had gotten some good breaks.

 

I always check the Hwy 18 cams to see what is upstream for me... it seems like there was only snow at the end of the day on 3 days this winter down there right after the big snowstorm in early February and it was raining on those days.   Today you had sunshine with a bare ground at 5:30 while it was truly a whiteout here with cars abandoned along our hill.    I was sincerely jealous of you... and everyone else in Seattle as well.  

 

We have had snow on the ground for almost 60 days this winter and we are buried right now.    

 

I am actually looking forward to a rainy pattern because the snow will be gone.   Its a step in the right direction.  

 

There were some winters when we both had almost nothing.   And I think there have been years when our totals were higher but still much closer.   

[snow_wizard]

So, the -47.7C 850mb temperatures yesterday over Canada actually set an all time NH record for the month of March.

 

Impressive!

 

You would have to think the declining solar activity over the past few cycles might have something to do with this.  If so...it's time to buckle up!

[MikeInEverett]

C-Zone just missed me again.. that's happened so much lately.

[HighlandExperience]

I thought he was at 500 feet?

 

Our property is between 1050-1100 feet. Maybe it is almost a 700-foot difference if he is at 400 feet.

 

Still just amazes me. The difference between here and even the Issaquah Highlands is also astounding. And they are almost as high.

Yea it is amazing how much better your location is. As soon as you cross the issaquah "alps" the snow totals go up dramatically on snoqualmie ridge. Plenty of times will have a trace here and I will visit a friend on the ridge and they will have 3-6 inches.

 

500 feet in this climate makes a huge difference. Maple valley and Covington area is very similar to issaquah.

[snow_wizard]

C-Zone just missed me again.. that's happened so much lately.

 

 

Usually your area is fabulous for that.  It probably has to do with the unusual bock placement this winter.

[TT-SEA]

You would have to think the declining solar activity over the past few cycles might have something to do with this.  If so...it's time to buckle up!

 

Depends on placement of the cold though.   This has been our year.   But DC is in full bloom right now and it seems to be sunny every single day.   I am getting depressed watching political coverage from the White House for many different reasons!  

 

The cold might switch to some place else next year.

[snow_wizard]

Yea it is amazing how much better your location is. As soon as you cross the issaquah "alps" the snow totals go up dramatically on snoqualmie ridge. Plenty of times will have a trace here and I will visit a friend on the ridge and they will have 3-6 inches.

 

500 feet in this climate makes a huge difference.

 

We are still due for a winter where everyone gets crushed.  Can't wait to see it.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty underwhelming pattern out here, there was a bit of snow in the morning but otherwise every convective shower that came anywhere close ended up getting torn apart as soon as it approached Victoria. Sometimes they will roll into the Juan de Fuca, get torn apart right before Victoria then reform on the other side and slam the mainland. It's strange given there aren't any significant natural barriers ahead of it. The bust for later this week has been the least disappointing bust so far; it would have taken something historically epic to bring a good cold/snow combo and more likely would have been a repeat of what we're getting now.

[Front Ranger]

My brother in west Salem reported 2" this morning.

[HighlandExperience]

We are still due for a winter where everyone gets crushed. Can't wait to see it.

You have to admit for how cold this winter has been the snow totals have not been great. If I recall wasn't 2007 very similar to this? Very low snow levels, but not much of anything below 600-700 feet.

[Jesse]

Pretty awesome to see that kind of cold in the arctic.

 

Too bad we aren't tapping into it as indicated a few days ago. Could have been an historic late season event.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I always check the Hwy 18 cams to see what is upstream for me... it seems like there was only snow at the end of the day on 3 days this winter down there right after the big snowstorm in early February and it was raining on those days.   Today you had sunshine with a bare ground at 5:30 while it was truly a whiteout here with cars abandoned along our hill.    I was sincerely jealous of you... and everyone else in Seattle as well.  

 

We have had snow on the ground for almost 60 days this winter and we are buried right now.    

 

I am actually looking forward to a rainy pattern because the snow will be gone.   Its a step in the right direction.  

 

There were some winters when we both had almost nothing.   And I think there have been years when our totals were higher but still much closer.   

 

How warm did it end up getting there during the day?

[Front Ranger]

We are still due for a winter where everyone gets crushed.  Can't wait to see it.

 

Not many winters the past 60 years that top the snowfall for SLE to southern BC in 2008-09. It's very rare for that much of the I-5 corridor to see 15-25"+. Obviously, winters like 1968-69 or 1949-50 were the top of top tier, but I'd say "everyone got crushed" pretty well in 2008-09.

[Jesse]

You have to admit for how cold this winter has been the snow totals have not been great. If I recall wasn't 2007 very similar to this? Very low snow levels, but not much of anything below 600-700 feet.

 

I wouldn't call almost a foot at PDX and SEA (and both of those places had lower totals than most) not much of anything. This winter isn't even in the same league as 2007-08, for cold or lowland snow.

 

There are all different sorts of winters. This one was cold and on the moderately snowy side. Just because it is cold here DJF doesn't mean we are guaranteed five feet of snow.

[TT-SEA]

How warm did it end up getting there during the day?

 

34... despite some sun breaks.  

[Front Ranger]

If SEA is going to sneak in a last minute victory over PDX for seasonal snowfall, it will probably happen tonight. 

 

NAILBITER.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

We are still due for a winter where everyone gets crushed.  Can't wait to see it.

 

Doesn't necessarily need to be a cold winter like this for that to happen. A zonal winter with a single solid Arctic airmass could easily produce more snow over a wider area than anything we had this year. Despite all the cold this year, we failed to see any very cold upper level airmasses.

[epiceast]

Yea it is amazing how much better your location is. As soon as you cross the issaquah "alps" the snow totals go up dramatically on snoqualmie ridge. Plenty of times will have a trace here and I will visit a friend on the ridge and they will have 3-6 inches.

 

500 feet in this climate makes a huge difference. Maple valley and Covington area is very similar to issaquah.

No alps on hwy2 environs, the difference just as dramatic once you enter the "mouth" of the valley.

[epiceast]

34... despite some sun breaks.  

Got into upper 30's here

[Phil]

Depends on placement of the cold though. This has been our year. But DC is in full bloom right now and it seems to be sunny every single day. I am getting depressed watching political coverage from the White House for many different reasons!

 

The cold might switch to some place else next year.

Sadly, all of the flowers were killed when temps fell into the teens over the weekend. Everything is brown now. What's funny is that, as of now, some models are dumping 1-2 feet of snow on us next week.

 

Ever since Trump's inauguration, our climate has gone off the rails. Severe weather outbreaks, hurricane force winds on two separate occasions, flower killing freezes, heatwaves, and now a potential blizzard? I think Mother Nature is trying to tell us something about this administration.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's official now. 4 consecutive months of well above normal snowfall in a row. This hasn't happened in over 10 years... gonna need to go way back and look up when that last happened. 

[Front Ranger]

Doesn't necessarily need to be a cold winter like this for that to happen. A zonal winter with a single solid Arctic airmass could easily produce more snow over a wider area than anything we had this year. Despite all the cold this year, we failed to see any very cold upper level airmasses.

 

Yeah, this winter was pretty unique for how cold it was despite no major upper level cold. Closest match in that sense might be 1984-85.

[epiceast]

0.25 Hvy Snow, Freezing Fog

VV006

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mso&sid=KMSO&num=72&raw=0

 

Not very often you get to see this observation

[MossMan]

Snowing hard, probably nearing an inch!

[Brennan]

Situational snow is very important I think, and this winter has been pretty terrible in that respect in Western washington overall. It has snowed 15-20 times up here in Bellingham but only twice have we had 3.5 or more inches of snow on the ground for 3+ days. Almost all of Seattle's snow was melting as soon as it was done falling. So although it was cold and overall snowier than normal, the snowfall fell at pretty unfortunate times. January was our coldest month yet I think we recorded trace amount of snow up here that month. I'm not complaining.

 

I would prefer 2006-2007 or 2008-2009 over this winter. 06-07 had two snowfalls of 6+ inches last 3+ days, and we all know what 2008-2009 was.

[Timmy]

Probably the most confusing wwa up for nw Oregon coast range. Is it saying 6-12 inches tonight? That can't be right.

[GHweatherChris]

Just over 11.5 inches for the winter now, looks like good potential to get a bit more tonight, I upgrade this winter to just slightly blah now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably the most confusing wwa up for nw Oregon coast range. Is it saying 6-12 inches tonight? That can't be right.

 

Yeah its weird. WSW here initially was calling for 8-16". Had a couple inches with snow showers, but hasn't really been anything tonight other than clouds with the temp bouncing around from 32-33. Radar returns are pretty week...By the time the steady stuff moves north tomorrow morning the snow level should be up around 2500' or so.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like a possible snow-to-rain event tomorrow morning. An overrunning event in March seems pretty strange, this would probably be a good snow producing pattern in January.