Thanksgiving Holiday - TX Panhandle Cutter

[Clinton]

Most of the day here looks very nice before the rain moves in.  My family is headed out today to cut down a Christmas Tree a tradition we started 15 years ago.  The active weather sure has me in full Winter mode this weekend.

[jaster220]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Look at that northern cutoff along the trowel, sure has a Winter storm look.  Nice rain totals for those in it's path.

Was thinking the same thing with the northern edge defined so distinctly. If winter, it would be a really strange scenario that hit KC and DET, while mostly bypassing Chicago. Lake enhancement off of Lk. Michigan would no doubt fill in that gap, but still would be an oddball storm.  

[jaster220]

DTX confirming that this GOMEX Low is quite the wet system:

Unseasonably high moisture will accompany this
system as PWAT values of around 0.25" this evening will quickly
climb between 0.75" to just over 1.00" by Sunday morning. These
values fall easily in the 90th percentile for this time of year. The
main surface low track will move over the Toledo area and into
western Lake Erie during the afternoon and place the best
deformation zone and subsequent higher rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00"
along and south of the I-69 corridor. Lower rainfall totals of 0.25-
0.50" are expected north of I-69.

[Clinton]

Nice looking wall of water pushing north towards my place. 1-1.5 inches expected here.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Nice looking wall of water pushing north towards my place. 1-1.5 inches expected here.

I've forgotten what it's like to tally up qpf during a long rainstorm. Looking good down there. Surprised how temps have dropped into the 30's pre-storm. Thought we'd be warm all night like usual here. Time to look for Hi-res model last-minute changes.

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I've forgotten what it's like to tally up qpf during a long rainstorm. Looking good down there. Surprised how temps have dropped into the 30's pre-storm. Thought we'd be warm all night like usual here. Time to look for Hi-res model last-minute changes.

You might get some flakes to move in tomorrow with the low to your SE.  If only it were 5 to 10 degrees colder we would be diggin.  Looks like .5 to 1 inch up your way.

[Andie]

I lost track of how much rain DFW received but I’m pretty certain Ft Worth got over 2.50”. 
It just would stop and it was seriously cold. Sliced through you.  

[Clinton]

Big rain here last night as I received an even 2 inches.  This is the second time this month a storm has produced 2 inches or more of rainfall which is crazy because November here only averages 2.02 inches.  Since October 23rd I have received 6.4 inches of rain!  4.2 so far for November.

[Tom]

17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Big rain here last night as I received an even 2 inches.  This is the second time this month a storm has produced 2 inches or more of rainfall which is crazy because November here only averages 2.02 inches.  Since October 23rd I have received 6.4 inches of rain!  4.2 so far for November.

Wow, thats rather impressive for late in the season.  The pattern that keeps on giving...this system has 2 asterisks on my note pad!

[Tom]

These are some Impressive snowfall totals so far south near the Mexico and U.S. border...

 

 

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

These are some Impressive snowfall totals so far south near the Mexico and U.S. border...

 

 

All of the posts this morning from down south have to be in rare air

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

You might get some flakes to move in tomorrow with the low to your SE.  If only it were 5 to 10 degrees colder we would be diggin.  Looks like .5 to 1 inch up your way.

Hoping this can be a repeat in C-3 with those colder temps. Was your 2" RN total an over performance against modeling and/or forecast?

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping this can be a repeat in C-3 with those colder temps. Was your 2" RN total an over performance against modeling and/or forecast?

Only the Euro and ICON on yesterday mornings runs showed those kinda totals for mby.  HRRR never showed more than 1.4 here.  So overperformance and above my expectations.  NWS office showed 1-1.5 for me.

[Hawkeye]

I got 0.09" overnight.  Most of the short-term models had been showing nothing.

[CentralNebWeather]

0.0” here. There have been several fires in the area lately. Droughts are horrible. 

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Clinton said:

You might get some flakes to move in tomorrow with the low to your SE.  If only it were 5 to 10 degrees colder we would be diggin.  Looks like .5 to 1 inch up your way.

Close call with wintry stuff for the N CWA

 

FXUS63 KDTX 271506
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1006 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022

.UPDATE...

Widespread moderate showers are spreading through the Thumb and Tri-
Cities this morning with a deformation band strengthening overhead
and leading to locally higher rates stretching from Alma to Bad Axe.
Correlation coefficient data places freezing level around 4 to 5
kft, which confirms the 0.5 degree reflectivity across the north is
being enhanced by a strong bright banding signature. Some of this
mixed/frozen precip will have the potential to reach the surface
over the next hour or so as the banding continues pivoting over the
northern CWA, but accumulations are not expected as dew points and
wet bulb temps continue to rise above freezing.

[jaster220]

Just got back home. Great umbrella wx out there. Been so long since we've seen these conditions:

Would be legit pound-town if cold 'nuff for snow.

[jaster220]

DTW finished with 1.04" for this storm. Biggest single event qpf since mid-Feb!

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

DTW finished with 1.04" for this storm. Biggest single event qpf since mid-Feb!

That's crazy.  9+ months ago.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

DTW finished with 1.04" for this storm. Biggest single event qpf since mid-Feb!

So I did some quick investigating.  In terms of calendar day precip, the 1.04" at DTW today ended a 282 day streak without 1" of precip. 

The 282 day streak was the 16th longest on record.  There was actually a 289 day streak that began in 2020 and went into 2021.  The record longest streak without a calendar day precip of 1"+ is 571 days, which went from 9/7/1943 through 3/30/1945. 

[jaster220]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

So I did some quick investigating.  In terms of calendar day precip, the 1.04" at DTW today ended a 282 day streak without 1" of precip. 

The 282 day streak was the 16th longest on record.  There was actually a 289 day streak that began in 2020 and went into 2021.  The record longest streak without a calendar day precip of 1"+ is 571 days, which went from 9/7/1943 through 3/30/1945. 

This place is known as "the place active storms go to die" for a reason! Even more telling - when I looked at the "current storm reports" there was ONLY 1 SINGLE PAGE! Any other CWA around The MItt would have pages and pages of recent report history for wind, temps, precip, etc. NOT DTX. I kid you not, since moving here I've averaged like (2) days of interesting wx events PER YEAR. May be slight hyperbole, but not by much.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

This place is known as "the place active storms go to die" for a reason! Even more telling - when I looked at the "current storm reports" there was ONLY 1 SINGLE PAGE! Any other CWA around The MItt would have pages and pages of recent report history for wind, temps, precip, etc. NOT DTX. I kid you not, since moving here I've averaged like (2) days of interesting wx events PER YEAR. May be slight hyperbole, but not by much.

Well, hopefully we both get hammered this winter.  May be tough to do that in the same storm though.  Anything that nails me really good is probably going to result in mixing/dry slot concerns for you, unless the track is pretty flat (virtually west-east).

[jaster220]

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well, hopefully we both get hammered this winter.  May be tough to do that in the same storm though.  Anything that nails me really good is probably going to result in mixing/dry slot concerns for you, unless the track is pretty flat (virtually west-east).

Have to root for that DEC '00 or GHD-2 kind of system (could add NOV '15). I am riding a personal mega-losing streak over the last 2 winters so yeah, I need me a major pick-me-up in the Winter Wx Dept. While GHD-1 got this CWA it's last Bliz Warning, the JAN '99 Bliz was much better and worthy of the headline around here. That one was a very rare share the wealth ORD to DTW beast. I could gladly do that again. Drifts to 7 feet in the farmlands SW of here iir reporting correctly back then. And the whole Northwest Airlines stuck on the tarmac at DTW fiasco - that would suck! 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Have to root for that DEC '00 or GHD-2 kind of system (could add NOV '15). I am riding a personal mega-losing streak over the last 2 winters so yeah, I need me a major pick-me-up in the Winter Wx Dept. While GHD-1 got this CWA it's last Bliz Warning, the JAN '99 Bliz was much better and worthy of the headline around here. That one was a very rare share the wealth ORD to DTW beast. I could gladly do that again. Drifts to 7 feet in the farmlands SW of here iir reporting correctly back then. And the whole Northwest Airlines stuck on the tarmac at DTW fiasco - that would suck! 

'99 is a rare exception of not needing a flattish type of track.  That one actually cut very hard, but the antecedent airmass was so cold that it still pretty much resulted in all-snow for Detroit.