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Thanksgiving Holiday - TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Look at that northern cutoff along the trowel, sure has a Winter storm look.  Nice rain totals for those in it's path.

1669658400-DnX3r1rjWuY.png

Was thinking the same thing with the northern edge defined so distinctly. If winter, it would be a really strange scenario that hit KC and DET, while mostly bypassing Chicago. Lake enhancement off of Lk. Michigan would no doubt fill in that gap, but still would be an oddball storm.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DTX confirming that this GOMEX Low is quite the wet system:

Unseasonably high moisture will accompany this
system as PWAT values of around 0.25" this evening will quickly
climb between 0.75" to just over 1.00" by Sunday morning. These
values fall easily in the 90th percentile for this time of year. The
main surface low track will move over the Toledo area and into
western Lake Erie during the afternoon and place the best
deformation zone and subsequent higher rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00"
along and south of the I-69 corridor. Lower rainfall totals of 0.25-
0.50" are expected north of I-69.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Nice looking wall of water pushing north towards my place. 1-1.5 inches expected here.

KEAX_loop.gif

I've forgotten what it's like to tally up qpf during a long rainstorm. Looking good down there. Surprised how temps have dropped into the 30's pre-storm. Thought we'd be warm all night like usual here. Time to look for Hi-res model last-minute changes.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I've forgotten what it's like to tally up qpf during a long rainstorm. Looking good down there. Surprised how temps have dropped into the 30's pre-storm. Thought we'd be warm all night like usual here. Time to look for Hi-res model last-minute changes.

You might get some flakes to move in tomorrow with the low to your SE.  If only it were 5 to 10 degrees colder we would be diggin.  Looks like .5 to 1 inch up your way.

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I lost track of how much rain DFW received but I’m pretty certain Ft Worth got over 2.50”. 
It just would stop and it was seriously cold. Sliced through you.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Big rain here last night as I received an even 2 inches.  This is the second time this month a storm has produced 2 inches or more of rainfall which is crazy because November here only averages 2.02 inches.  Since October 23rd I have received 6.4 inches of rain!  4.2 so far for November.

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17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Big rain here last night as I received an even 2 inches.  This is the second time this month a storm has produced 2 inches or more of rainfall which is crazy because November here only averages 2.02 inches.  Since October 23rd I have received 6.4 inches of rain!  4.2 so far for November.

Wow, thats rather impressive for late in the season.  The pattern that keeps on giving...this system has 2 asterisks on my note pad!

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

These are some Impressive snowfall totals so far south near the Mexico and U.S. border...

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-27 at 6.17.25 AM.png

All of the posts this morning from down south have to be in rare air

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

You might get some flakes to move in tomorrow with the low to your SE.  If only it were 5 to 10 degrees colder we would be diggin.  Looks like .5 to 1 inch up your way.

Hoping this can be a repeat in C-3 with those colder temps. Was your 2" RN total an over performance against modeling and/or forecast?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hoping this can be a repeat in C-3 with those colder temps. Was your 2" RN total an over performance against modeling and/or forecast?

Only the Euro and ICON on yesterday mornings runs showed those kinda totals for mby.  HRRR never showed more than 1.4 here.  So overperformance and above my expectations.  NWS office showed 1-1.5 for me.

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12 hours ago, Clinton said:

You might get some flakes to move in tomorrow with the low to your SE.  If only it were 5 to 10 degrees colder we would be diggin.  Looks like .5 to 1 inch up your way.

Close call with wintry stuff for the N CWA

 
FXUS63 KDTX 271506
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1006 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022

.UPDATE...

Widespread moderate showers are spreading through the Thumb and Tri-
Cities this morning with a deformation band strengthening overhead
and leading to locally higher rates stretching from Alma to Bad Axe.
Correlation coefficient data places freezing level around 4 to 5
kft, which confirms the 0.5 degree reflectivity across the north is
being enhanced by a strong bright banding signature. Some of this
mixed/frozen precip will have the potential to reach the surface
over the next hour or so as the banding continues pivoting over the
northern CWA, but accumulations are not expected as dew points and
wet bulb temps continue to rise above freezing.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just got back home. Great umbrella wx out there. Been so long since we've seen these conditions:

image.png.d975894903600acc9280060197be0b94.png

Would be legit pound-town if cold 'nuff for snow.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DTW finished with 1.04" for this storm. Biggest single event qpf since mid-Feb!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

DTW finished with 1.04" for this storm. Biggest single event qpf since mid-Feb!

So I did some quick investigating.  In terms of calendar day precip, the 1.04" at DTW today ended a 282 day streak without 1" of precip. 

The 282 day streak was the 16th longest on record.  There was actually a 289 day streak that began in 2020 and went into 2021.  The record longest streak without a calendar day precip of 1"+ is 571 days, which went from 9/7/1943 through 3/30/1945. 

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18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

So I did some quick investigating.  In terms of calendar day precip, the 1.04" at DTW today ended a 282 day streak without 1" of precip. 

The 282 day streak was the 16th longest on record.  There was actually a 289 day streak that began in 2020 and went into 2021.  The record longest streak without a calendar day precip of 1"+ is 571 days, which went from 9/7/1943 through 3/30/1945. 

This place is known as "the place active storms go to die" for a reason! Even more telling - when I looked at the "current storm reports" there was ONLY 1 SINGLE PAGE! Any other CWA around The MItt would have pages and pages of recent report history for wind, temps, precip, etc. NOT DTX. I kid you not, since moving here I've averaged like (2) days of interesting wx events PER YEAR. May be slight hyperbole, but not by much.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

This place is known as "the place active storms go to die" for a reason! Even more telling - when I looked at the "current storm reports" there was ONLY 1 SINGLE PAGE! Any other CWA around The MItt would have pages and pages of recent report history for wind, temps, precip, etc. NOT DTX. I kid you not, since moving here I've averaged like (2) days of interesting wx events PER YEAR. May be slight hyperbole, but not by much.

Well, hopefully we both get hammered this winter.  May be tough to do that in the same storm though.  Anything that nails me really good is probably going to result in mixing/dry slot concerns for you, unless the track is pretty flat (virtually west-east).

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well, hopefully we both get hammered this winter.  May be tough to do that in the same storm though.  Anything that nails me really good is probably going to result in mixing/dry slot concerns for you, unless the track is pretty flat (virtually west-east).

Have to root for that DEC '00 or GHD-2 kind of system (could add NOV '15). I am riding a personal mega-losing streak over the last 2 winters so yeah, I need me a major pick-me-up in the Winter Wx Dept. While GHD-1 got this CWA it's last Bliz Warning, the JAN '99 Bliz was much better and worthy of the headline around here. That one was a very rare share the wealth ORD to DTW beast. I could gladly do that again. Drifts to 7 feet in the farmlands SW of here iir reporting correctly back then. And the whole Northwest Airlines stuck on the tarmac at DTW fiasco - that would suck! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Have to root for that DEC '00 or GHD-2 kind of system (could add NOV '15). I am riding a personal mega-losing streak over the last 2 winters so yeah, I need me a major pick-me-up in the Winter Wx Dept. While GHD-1 got this CWA it's last Bliz Warning, the JAN '99 Bliz was much better and worthy of the headline around here. That one was a very rare share the wealth ORD to DTW beast. I could gladly do that again. Drifts to 7 feet in the farmlands SW of here iir reporting correctly back then. And the whole Northwest Airlines stuck on the tarmac at DTW fiasco - that would suck! 

'99 is a rare exception of not needing a flattish type of track.  That one actually cut very hard, but the antecedent airmass was so cold that it still pretty much resulted in all-snow for Detroit.

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