Thanksgiving Holiday - TX Panhandle Cutter

[Tom]

The models are all coming into agreement that a rather potent cut-off ULL will slide down the leeward side of the Rockies and into the TX Panhandle region on Thanksgiving.  This system slowly migrates through TX into OK picking up abundant moisture and wrapping it into the cold core of the storm system on the NW side producing a significant snowstorm for W TX/W OK.  Severe Wx potential for E TX is in the cards, albeit not as widespread and intense.  This may change in future runs so something to keep an eye on. 

 

Nevertheless, a heavy precip producing system is in the works and I'm sure there will be more twists and turns with this system.  Let's discuss.

 

0z EPS...

 

0z GEFS precip...

[Andie]

We’ll, it’s certainly characteristic of Texas to pull a fast one on us on Thanksgiving.   

I’ve had more Thanksgivings ruined due to bad weather than I can recall.  Been stuck with a big dinner and had to cancel to keep family off dangerous roads.  
For many reasons I seriously do not like this holiday. 

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control brings nice totals into KC.

[CentralNebWeather]

As the precipitation hole over Nebraska continues.  It is a cruel joke at this point.  We are going on almost 14 months of this drought with no end in sight. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control brings nice totals into KC.

RN totals? Looks like it's just S of KC

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

RN totals? Looks like it's just S of KC

Hey there.  Check your PMs.  

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

The KC Metro area is roughly within the red circle.  Those are decent totals for this year.  

 

Thx was thinking it was the further N bendy region. Yeah, that's great. A dream to see any model/system showing more than 0.5" qpf for this part of SEMI.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Thx was thinking it was the further N bendy region. Yeah, that's great. A dream to see any model/system showing more than 0.5" qpf for this part of SEMI.

The GFS has slid a little further SE today.  Hopefully the Euro will pan out.  I think we all could use a little moisture even if it's all rain.  It's been a crazy day around here for me but this weather pattern setting up has me excited.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Thx was thinking it was the further N bendy region. Yeah, that's great. A dream to see any model/system showing more than 0.5" qpf for this part of SEMI.

18z Euro gets ya a little bump in totals.  Hopefully we can start chipping away at your drought also.

[Hoosier]

Model handling of this in the longer range was not the greatest, but I guess that's no surprise given the type of setup.  Does look like some good snow potential in parts of the southern Plains.

[Hoosier]

It's actually not that far from having a better phase with the incoming northern stream shortwave on the 00z GFS.  So maybe don't write it off completely yet if you're in the Lakes.

[Clinton]

No significant changes on the models last night, GFS lighter on the rain totals for KC.

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro showing a few flakes with this system as well as the beneficial rainfall.

[Clinton]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I'm waking up to some sprinkles and light rain this morning which wasn't forecasted or modeled.  Models have really spread the rain shield out overnight which means more people get more moisture.  There has also been a trend towards some low end snow accumulation totals in NE Iowa into Wisconsin and northern Michigan.

6z GFS

 

6z Euro

 

[Clinton]

This mornings NAM is showing a much colder looking storm.

[Hawkeye]

Models still cannot decide if a swath of rain will move across eastern Iowa.  They've been flopping back and forth for days.  The latest GFS and Euro show widespread rain here.  The UK is way southeast.  Other models are in between and wobbling back and forth.  The rain looks light, regardless.

[jaster220]

Euro much wetter here - we'll see is all I can say. 

[Hoosier]

Notice the 546 dm contour more "connected" on the most recent 12z GFS run.

Overall, I'd say trends are looking a bit more favorable for a swath of snow in/around the Lakes.

[Iceresistance]

Hey @Hoosier!

[Hoosier]

43 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Hey @Hoosier!

Hey hey 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Notice the 546 dm contour more "connected" on the most recent 12z GFS run.

Overall, I'd say trends are looking a bit more favorable for a swath of snow in/around the Lakes.

NMI would likely be looking at sig SN if this were hitting them overnight vs midday. 

[jaster220]

Euro even deeper than GFS. I am glad to see the models trend towards a more robust SLP even tho climo obviously does not favor SMI being on the north side of stronger systems.

 

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NMI would likely be looking at sig SN if this were hitting them overnight vs midday. 

imo the bigger issue is that we're trying to chase the cold in.  It's cutoff and then interacting/phasing with the northern stream and the exact details with that will affect how this turns out.  Maybe the daytime timing is an issue, but it's like a mid-January equivalent sun angle.

[jaster220]

NAM in not nearly as deep, but has a much snowier portrayal across NMI. Could be fooled a bit at this range, but inland away from the lake warmth could get a nice little surprise thumping. Time to go read APX's thoughts/messaging on this potential. 

[jaster220]

Just now, Hoosier said:

imo the bigger issue is that we're trying to chase the cold in.  It's cutoff and then interacting/phasing with the northern stream and the exact details with that will affect how this turns out.  Maybe the daytime timing is an issue, but it's like a mid-January equivalent sun angle.

Oh, its thread the needle for sure and timing of day only makes it more so. Nonetheless, having lived up there for 7 years, I have firsthand experience with these things finding a way to snow when otherwise it shouldn't. Normally not too invested in storms outside my CWA, but having been a resident of NMI, I do like to follow their wx happenings, especially if/when the action is lacking for the S GL's. 

[jaster220]

Quite the qpf maxima in NWIN. Bet they wished it was cold enough to snow. 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie

DFW has gotten over 2 inches of rain. 

[jaster220]

The Octopus Low! 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Euro even deeper than GFS. I am glad to see the models trend towards a more robust SLP even tho climo obviously does not favor SMI being on the north side of stronger systems.

 

What a storm this could be for us if we had some cold air blocked in here.  So rare to see a storm develop on the Texas and Mexico boarder and not miss me to the east.  Hopefully you will see a wetter pattern set up, I don't think your area will continue to be so dry going forward unlike the western areas like Nebraska. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

What a storm this could be for us if we had some cold air blocked in here.  So rare to see a storm develop on the Texas and Mexico boarder and not miss me to the east.  Hopefully you will see a wetter pattern set up, I don't think your area will continue to be so dry going forward unlike the western areas like Nebraska. 

Yeah, this would be one helluva GOMEX Low. They are notorious for some monster storms in Michigan. 

So far, APX still saying a mixy mess on tap. We'll see if tonight's frontal passage tips the scales towards better chances of accumulation.

[jaster220]

18z GFS joins Euro's sub-990mb system with a 989mb "Low party" over my place. Also hints that an inland thumping could be in the works across the higher terrain of NMI.

[jaster220]

18z NAM gave my old place about 7-9"

Kuchera likes SEWisco as well.

And SEWI

[Clinton]

I can't imagine that Texas has seen this much widespread rainfall very often especially in late November.  This pattern will soon have their drought wiped out.

Impressive totals for late November for KC and the Mid West.

 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

I can't imagine that Texas has seen this much widespread rainfall very often especially in late November.  This pattern will soon have their drought wiped out.

Impressive totals for late November for KC and the Mid West.

 

Its really a thing of beauty to see how strong this closed off ULL is going turn out...man, its like very storm that tracks into this part of the U.S. always holds its strength or gets stronger!  Dig baby, Dig!  #STJ

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Its really a thing of beauty to see how strong this closed off ULL is going turn out...man, its like very storm that tracks into this part of the U.S. always holds its strength or gets stronger!  Dig baby, Dig!  #STJ

Lezak seemed very excited about this storm last night on TV, even commenting how everyone should remember this storm and that it could be a big snow maker later on this Winter.  This will be his last week on air and his Winter forecast is on Wednesday night.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lezak seemed very excited about this storm last night on TV, even commenting how everyone should remember this storm and that it could be a big snow maker later on this Winter.  This will be his last week on air and his Winter forecast is on Wednesday night.

I'm sure he will be missed in KC...he is a legend!  Ya, I have to concur, there are multiple storms in this pattern that get me excited.

[Tom]

Hmmmm, I wonder if the ET's are enjoying a bit of the white stuff....#Roswell

 

[jaster220]

That's gotta be a rare Obs there! They may have to run their defrosters

[Andie]

Didn’t have to kill the turkey this year! 
He drowned!

Hope everyone had a great day yesterday!  

2” in Ft Worth I hear and up here on the Red River even more.  
We expect 2 more inches over the next 24 hours. Absolutely soaked.  

West Texas appears to be winding up for an assault. Some snow west. 
No complaints. Lakes and aquifers will be recharged for summer.  
 

[Hoosier]

Seems like things have gone back a little bit in the other direction... less favorable interaction with the northern stream and thus less snow around the Lakes.  Still time to flip back again I suppose.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like things have gone back a little bit in the other direction... less favorable interaction with the northern stream and thus less snow around the Lakes.  Still time to flip back again I suppose.

S, and a little less dynamic yes. It is now actually taking a path favorable for Chicago & SMI to get winter wx if it were a month deeper into winter. May even end with a few flakes in parts of SEMI per DTX's AFD. 

[Hawkeye]

For us, models have been going back and forth for days.  Today they are all going back southeast.  It's looking like maybe some very light showers, at most, for Cedar Rapids.

[jaster220]

I did a Black Friday drive. By old school rules, I'd say highway M-46 and north away from any lake shadow has the best shot at seeing some flakes whitening the ground. Not going to be anything big anywhere in The Mitt, but it will be another reminder that winter's knocking on the door as we march into December. I think the 18z NAM has a pretty realistic portrayal of the potential. 

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For us, models have been going back and forth for days.  Today they are all going back southeast.  It's looking like maybe some very light showers, at most, for Cedar Rapids.

At least it won't be another snow bust for ya. Y'all have had a good autumn soaker. How 'bout let us get something?

 

[jaster220]

To show just how sparse and lack-luster the moisture has been here in 2022, this has the potential to be the largest qpf since last Feb's half RN/half SN winter storm on the 17th.

DTW forecast (8 miles south of here):

Sunday

Rain, mainly after 8am. High near 46. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night

Rain, mainly before 8pm. Low around 35. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

[Clinton]

Big difference for KC between the global models and the short range models.  If this were a snow storm I wouldn't want to be a met in KC.

18z Euro:

0z HRRR:

[Iceresistance]

Wide swath of 1-1.75 inches of rain expected for most of Texas through tomorrow. @Andie

 

[Tom]

What a beautiful looking system that will eventually develop a trowal feature on radar pulling deep moisture out of the GOM...

[Andie]

9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Wide swath of 1-1.75 inches of rain expected for most of Texas through tomorrow. @Andie

 

Geez, we’re soaked in North Tx. The ground is so super saturated you sink in it. We try to stay on hard surfaces.  
If all of this had been snow we’d be house bound for a week.  
On the Tx/Okla border it’s just saturated.  
52*. Rain.  Coming to an end this morning.  

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

What a beautiful looking system that will eventually develop a trowal feature on radar pulling deep moisture out of the GOM...

Look at that northern cutoff along the trowel, sure has a Winter storm look.  Nice rain totals for those in it's path.