Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 tbh, I don't think I've seen a storm that has given the models this much trouble before. It seems like it's N then S then back N again after every run. Within 36 hours of this event and they are still struggling. The PV and where it goes is given them trouble. Weaker HP= more N Stronger HP= more S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM with a solid 6-10" band from NE/IA/S WI...N IL with 3-6" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM solid with 2nd wave in N IA/WI. Heaviest north of Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM trending wetter from 12z run...going to get interesting here for Sat night period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF Plumes is nearly 8 here. Interesting. About 2-2.5 tonight and 5+ with the 2nd wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Haha right by me 6-7" seems like a good amount I guess, I don't know it's really hard to tell what the models want to do with this. This is a huge jump North, almost unrealistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd wave is coming in way farther south on the NAM...so for our region its going to really be the Sat/Sun period and how robust the 2nd wave can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd wave is coming in way farther south on the NAM...so for our region its going to really be the Sat/Sun period and how robust the 2nd wave can get.yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 From KC/N MO/C IL almost a non event now on the NAM...wtf! Those places were in the bullseye run after run after run...unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Parts of C. OH which were inline for 12+ get basically nothing on the 18z NAM lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe 2nd wave ends up being the primary one and 3rd one gets surpressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 What's interesting is the EURO is so weak with the 2nd wave. GFS is a bit farther south but has 3-5 or so. GGEM is pretty strong. Seems like only the euro has barley any qpf with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 What's interesting is the EURO is so weak with the 2nd wave. GFS is a bit farther south but has 3-5 or so. GGEM is pretty strong. Seems like only the euro has barley any qpf with it. GGEM alright? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 EURO and NAM are complete opposite with wave 2 and 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM looked like about .35-.4 QPF for Chicago on the 2nd wave at least looking from the colored maps. Tom, is that about right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 MKE talked about maybe 20:1 ratios with the 2nd wave. Could be at least a solid advisory level snows for a lot of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Parts of C. OH which were inline for 12+ get basically nothing on the 18z NAM lolIf other models follow the NAM the Accuweather forum will just go completely nuts!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 If other models follow the NAM the Accuweather forum will just go completely nuts!!I assume they're all going "NAM lol" right now? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Couple WWA issued. One in the GB area for tonight (3-5 inches) and one in the Quad Cities for tomorrow aft/night (3-5) URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL249 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014...SNOW COLD COLD WEATHER SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON....A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA LATETONIGHT...WITH SNOW FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND SOME CONSIDERABLEDRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDINGSUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALLWELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.IAZ051>054-063>068-076>078-ILZ007-009-015-010500-/O.NEW.KDVN.WW.Y.0013.140301T1800Z-140302T1200Z/BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND249 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AMCST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAYTO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUESATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SNOW RATES OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAYOCCUR SATURDAY EVENING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND CONSIDERABLEDRIFTING SNOW.* TEMPERATURES...19 ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY...AND AROUND -3 SATURDAY NIGHT.* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 22 BELOW.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS...WITHDRIFTING SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALSO EXPECTEDSATURDAY NIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLICK...SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND BE CAREFUL WHILEDRIVING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI241 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014...SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTOTONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE RETURN OF WARMERAIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ANDTONIGHT.WIZ020-021-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074-010300-/O.EXB.KGRB.WW.Y.0007.140228T2100Z-140301T0600Z/MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SHAWANO-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KESHENA...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ241 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CSTTONIGHT.* THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE REST OFTHE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFOREDIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.* A TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED.* TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dominick, you may be right about the 2nd wave developing into the primary wave. Let's see what the GFS has in store. James, you were worried about suppression a few days back and look now, your in the sweet spot! That's why you can't model watch each model run and say that is what will happen. Things are turning the corner for your area and a lot of IA. Here is the 18z 4KM NAM...I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy snow fall rates where ever the heavy snow band sets up. Looks like there will be adequate DGZ growth zone and bigger flake sizes if the wind doesn't break them apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Let's see if the GFS trends wetter with the 2nd wave. NAM/SREF would mean even warning type snows if it plays out right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I believe this is current. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Watch, by tomorrow 12z runs N IL/IA/N IN/S WI/S MI are all under WSW or WSW! Wouldn't that be the surprise of the winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Is this the last major storm we could be tracking for winter 2013-2014? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I believe this is current. That looks to far south for wave 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Chicago magnet this winter. Next winter back to Madison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 IT APPEARS THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THESTRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A1045 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SETTHE STAGE FOR A FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREABY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCECONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAYNIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING ONLY AROUND ATENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE OTHERS SUGGESTIN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. HOWEVER...I HAVE TRENDED A BITTOWARDS THE HIGHER QPF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THATASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE DGZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEFORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE BAND THE FGEN...AND ALSO WITH THECOMBINATION OF AID OF LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCEREGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL INALL...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOWDURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THENGRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THISACTIVITY COULD DROP 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NWINDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOT AFD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Overnight look off the coast:http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-266-0-88659600-1393614995.jpg Another satellite image:http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/southwest/current/southwest.ir.gif Doesn't this thing just look powerful? I believe the central pressure this morning was 965mb and believe it has dropped even more since then. All the modeling were at least 20mb higher. Don't know if this will translate into anything later but it is still interesting to note. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Is this the last major storm we could be tracking for winter 2013-2014? Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 still praying MKe has in more 1" tonight 1" tomorrow and 1" tomorrow night....hope that's wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Check out the GFS for later tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 IT APPEARS THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THESTRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A1045 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SETTHE STAGE FOR A FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREABY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCECONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAYNIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING ONLY AROUND ATENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE OTHERS SUGGESTIN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. HOWEVER...I HAVE TRENDED A BITTOWARDS THE HIGHER QPF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THATASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE DGZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEFORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE BAND THE FGEN...AND ALSO WITH THECOMBINATION OF AID OF LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCEREGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL INALL...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOWDURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THENGRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THISACTIVITY COULD DROP 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NWINDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOT AFD I will take that. 2-4 inches from LOT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS with widespread 4-5 tonight for IA/WI with .25+ QPF or so. Much wetter than 12z for the 1st wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wave #2 is coming in N and a bit wetter through HR 21 as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wave #2 starts out farther N and a tad wetter then quickly dries up a bit and shrinks S. Similar to 12z it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wave #2 starts out farther N and a tad wetter then quickly dries up a bit and shrinks S. Similar to 12z it looks like.Such a shame that it dries so fast. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM wins RD 1 vs GFS. GFS has more SN in IA/WI/N. IL then C. OH and C. IN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 2nd wave looks wetter here and 3rd wave looks drier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM wins RD 1 vs GFS. GFS has more SN in IA/WI/N. IL then C. OH and C. IN Tonight or tommorow night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Tonight. GFS was consistently dry with this wave and NAM was pretty steady. 18z GFS went wetter for tonight and has .25 QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.