PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I mean it's cold. My location high temps will be 26-30 with raging east winds, perhaps over 55mph, but as far as deep cold its lacking. C'mon freezing rain!

00z GFS in 20 hours 39 minutes

Not sure about highs in the 20s there... but the ECMWF clearly shows the Gorge influence down there all of next week.

This is day 9...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 is beautiful. If you look at it crosseyed while winking it's not bad. No offense to anyone who is, or might be crosseyed, has plans to be crossedyed in the future, identifies as crosseyed, or has a nervous tick that causes them to wink uncontrollably.

[Snownerd3000]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually I don't think reality applies to this winter as much as usual.  This is some outlandish stuff going on.

More me just playing off Mr Gore

[Deweydog]

Outstanding low level cold run. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, MossMan said:

Where is Andrew and his positivity??? We need him right now! 

I am doing my best to try and fill in.

[ShawniganLake]

A couple days ago the gfs and nam were showing 20” of snow in shawnigan lake tonight.  It’s currently 40 and raining there. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's going to be easy for the lakes to freeze when the big cold comes.  The water is so chilled by all of the recent cold and will be even more so with the fake cold next week.

it will only be a fake lake freeze, so no worries

[Meatyorologist]

@TigerWoodsLibido

[Kolk1604]

00z EPS Day 4 

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er nothing but east winds and low level chill

Frustrating to get good GFS trends then bad EURO trends!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about highs in the 20s there... but the ECMWF clearly shows the Gorge influence down there all of next week.

This is day 9...

 

EURO is not very good at handling low level cold pools/CAA with east wind I've noticed. WRF is a quite a bit better. It's the other way around when it comes to deeper arctic air.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

@TigerWoodsLibido

This was sooooo two hours ago…

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and GEM are quite similar tonight and the ECMWF is off in its own world.  I think it confused itself with all of the cutoffs.

It’s actually the GFS that’s the outlier (in the short/medium range, at least). 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

EURO is not very good at handling low level cold pools/CAA with east wind I've noticed. WRF is a quite a bit better. It's the other way around when it comes to deeper arctic air.

Good to know.   

Totally different up here without a sea level gap in the mountains to pump in the low level cold air. 

[RentonHill]

[Kolk1604]

Day 5 

 

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 is beautiful. If you look at it crosseyed while winking it's not bad. No offense to anyone who is, or might be crosseyed, has plans to be crossedyed in the future, identifies as crosseyed, or has a nervous tick that causes them to wink uncontrollably.

Just Ruby Sue. Luckily she gets kicked by a mule and all is well. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

EURO is not very good at handling low level cold pools/CAA with east wind I've noticed. WRF is a quite a bit better. It's the other way around when it comes to deeper arctic air.

Highs below 32-33 in the metro area with just an outflow pattern, full sun and dry ground are pretty much unheard of.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good to know.   

Totally different up here without a sea level gap in the mountains to pump in the low level cold air. 

Some people hate the east winds, like everyone else in my family my entire life. I loved it. They thought I was crazy. They think everyone on this forum and my PDX WX Analysis group are all nut jobs. LMAO. It's outstanding.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Basically dry after tomorrow on this run... subject to change of course.  

 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

So it's been about twice as warm as it has been cold. Sounds about right.

I don't think it will take long to wipe out the rest of the summer / early autumn excess though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Highs below 32-33 in the metro area with just an outflow pattern, full sun and dry ground are pretty much unheard of.

Had it many times east of I-205 out here. It's harder at PDX though. With the low level cold pool that's coming temps always trend colder once we're into it.

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Frustrating to get good GFS trends then bad EURO trends!

split the difference and call it a day

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Some people hate the east winds, like everyone else in my family my entire life. I loved it. They thought I was crazy. They think everyone on this forum and my PDX WX Analysis group are all nut jobs. LMAO. It's outstanding.

The east winds are fine in moderation.  My saying for this area concerning east winds is less is more.  Very good thing things happen when it's just seepage.

[TT-SEA]

Temp at 35 and dewpoint at 35 and mostly raining with occasional snowflakes and windy.   Been the same for 2 or 3 hours.    This is not a dry east wind... the air is totally saturated now.   

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Some people hate the east winds, like everyone else in my family my entire life. I loved it. They thought I was crazy. They think everyone on this forum and my PDX WX Analysis group are all nut jobs. LMAO. It's outstanding.

..........we aren't?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where is Andrew and his positivity??? We need him right now! 

I ride with American Models!

[Kolk1604]

Day 7 

[ShawniganLake]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Highs below 32-33 in the metro area with just an outflow pattern, full sun and dry ground are pretty much unheard of.

Yup. I was in PDX for the 2009 dry blast. HARD freeze each night but managed to edge above freezing each afternoon.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just Ruby Sue. Luckily she gets kicked by a mule and all is well. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7 

Positive center is way west of the oprational.

[Kolk1604]

Day 8 

[MossMan]

January 2013 here we come.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 8 

I was serious when I said the ECMWF probably confused itself tonight.  Just too complex and it got into the weeds.

[RentonHill]

Cool to see EPS start to figure this one out. Eliminating any of the early blasts. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

January 2013 here we come.

I kind of liked that one.  Some serious freezing fog.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Positive center is way west of the oprational.

That's good