PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

This is garbage

Would you rather have 60 degrees and BSF? 

[MossMan]

I’m not sure if I should remain calm and professional and say this is a complex pattern and the models will struggle mightily and that the main players are still there…or if I should completely weenie out and say we will not see another flake this season and we are facing a 2014-15 all over again. Going to ask my family to vote on the matter, be right back! 

[Timmy]

Gem isn’t bad

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We need Jim for some realistic perspective on this run. Never thought I would say that, but here we are…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain and 40.1˚F, warmer than when I went to bed last night.

Snow is gone except where piles were made by shoveling or plowing it, and there are lots of those. They are melting, but slowly. Wish they would melt faster as they are for the most part dirty and ugly anyhow. Fresh snow is beautiful but not this stuff.

Highs today and tomorrow should be around 45˚F, the warmest foreseeable in the near future. If the snow piles don’t vamoose by tomorrow evening, they are probably here to stay a while.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m not sure if I should remain calm and professional and say this is a complex pattern and the models will struggle mightily and that the main players are still there…or if I should completely weenie out and say we will not see another flake this season and we are facing a 2014-15 all over again. Going to ask my family to vote on the matter, be right back! 

This run shows snow for you

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm only looking out to Day 5 because after Day 3.5 there is no run to run consistency with the GFS. Anything after Day 5 is pointless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last year at this time we would be having a parade for a sub 45 high. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Gem isn’t bad

If it heads due east it is almost perfectly placed for me.

[Doinko]

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I know things dont look too good  right now, but when it flips, it's gonna flip fast.  We're all gonna need neckbraces.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is close.

No matter what CA does well. 

[Doinko]

Ton of cold air to our north. A lot of potential

 

[TT-SEA]

Here it comes... the GFS always delivers eventually.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last year at this time we would be having a parade for a sub 45 high. 

Fun fact: YVR recorded only four 50+ maxima last month (and zero to date this month).

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here it comes... the GFS always delivers eventually.  

Its cause it reads this forum.  It doesn't want to be responsible for anyone's depression.

[Timmy]

This upcoming pattern confusion has shaken the forum to its core. Rob is now pessimistic and Andrew has switched sides and andrewing for the optmists. Strange dynamic 

[Brennan]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bellingham would be a fun climate. Are there any properties with elevation up there?

Whatcom County is a highly variable county for winter weather. In early February 2017, at one point it was in the 20s with accumulating freezing rain from Ferndale to Lynden, Kendal and Maple Falls had 2 feet of snow, and Bellingham and South County were just above freezing. (Thankfully in the days ensuing the low pressure off the coast dropped and it snowed everywhere. 

To answer your question, yes there are places in the area with elevation. The highlands north of Lake Whatcom above Squalicum reach I think 1,300-1,500 feet. The hills west of Lake Whatcom near Sudden Valley and Geneva area, which is a few miles west of downtown Bellingham are between 500-1,000 feet. I could probably do a 10 page write up of best areas for snow in certain situations. It varies during every different snow setup.... if you'd like to know more just DM me lol. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

Its cause it reads this forum.  It doesn't want to be responsible for anyone's depression.

This seems like a plausible take. Yep.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is close.

No matter what CA does well. 

GEM shows a perfect snow pattern at the end of the run... low to the west and arctic air to the north and east.    White Christmas incoming! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here it comes... the GFS always delivers eventually.  

Well if anything is going to happen it’s not going to happen until around the 20th at the earliest. People looking at day 3 and getting upset need to go pound sand. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

This upcoming pattern confusion has shaken the forum to its core. Rob is now pessimistic and Andrew has switched sides and andrewing for the optmists. Strange dynamic 

Andrew's mood for the day is entirely based on what the GFS shows in the 10-15 day period.    The GFS of all models.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here it comes... the GFS always delivers eventually.  

When It's Coming, all roads lead to Elysium. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows the same basic set up right before Christmas as the GEM... absolutely perfect snow pattern with a low spinning in moisture and arctic air just to the north and east.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is like the opposite of the 00z for where the snow is. That will continue to fluctuate going forward. 

[TT-SEA]

3 days before Christmas!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew's mood for the day is entirely based on what the GFS shows in the 10-15 day period.    The GFS of all models.  

We are just so blessed to have the gift of lyfe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

3 days before Christmas!  

Looks like a pile of crap down here. @TigerWoodsLibido and I will be out on his porch in shorts and t shirts ripping his bong and crying in our beer. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well if anything is going to happen it’s not going to happen until around the 20th at the earliest. People looking at day 3 and getting upset need to go pound sand. 

What happened to you from yesterday morning to now? One of the biggest flips since the great model flip of December 1996! 
Im definitely not complaining though! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Whatcom County is a highly variable county for winter weather. In early February 2017, at one point it was in the 20s with accumulating freezing rain from Ferndale to Lynden, Kendal and Maple Falls had 2 feet of snow, and Bellingham and South County were just above freezing. (Thankfully in the days ensuing the low pressure off the coast dropped and it snowed everywhere. 

To answer your question, yes there are places in the area with elevation. The highlands north of Lake Whatcom above Squalicum reach I think 1,300-1,500 feet. The hills west of Lake Whatcom near Sudden Valley and Geneva area, which is a few miles west of downtown Bellingham are between 500-1,000 feet. I could probably do a 10 page write up of best areas for snow in certain situations. It varies during every different snow setup.... if you'd like to know more just DM me lol. 

In January 2020 the retreating arctic front stalled across the City of Bellingham and there was for a day a nearly 20˚F temperature difference between the Alaska ferrry terminal in Fairhaven and the Cordata neighborhood in north Bellingham.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a pile of crap down here. @TigerWoodsLibido and I will be out on his porch in shorts and t shirts ripping his bong and crying in our beer. 

Yeah... and its so close now that any shifts will be very minor.   

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

3 days before Christmas!  

Will trend north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall though a solid run. Proof positive  we are still in the game here. That’s what s important. Thanks for changing your energy Tim. It obviously made a big difference for folx in your area on this run. Maybe Rob will come around for the 18z and we can all get in on the fun. #Wehavethepower 

Edited December 10, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What happened to you from yesterday morning to now? One of the biggest flips since the great model flip of December 1996! 
Im definitely not complaining though! 

I just realized. We got this. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall though a solid run. Proof positive  we are still in the game here. That’s what s important. Thanks for changing your energy Tim. It obviously made a big different for folx in your area on this run. Maybe Rob will come around for the 18z and we can all get in on the fun. #Wehavethepower 

I am done checking now.   The 12Z GFS this morning is the right answer.   At this point I am just pinpointing the precise timing of the snow starting (give or take 15 minutes) and then play the waiting game for 2 weeks.

[fubario]

In 5 years the models will have AI profiles in this forum ushering in the 'Age of the Weenie Wars'. You think it's bad now? You ain't seen nuthin yet.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a pile of crap down here. @TigerWoodsLibido and I will be out on his porch in shorts and t shirts ripping his bong and crying in our beer. 

And THIS is why I want my family gone from this forsaken location. There will never be another white Christmas here again in our lives. 1990 will be the last one for us until some fluke event in like 2106 or something.

Awful location in setups like the one being depicted.

[Doinko]

White Christmas for NW OR too!

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Doinko

[Snownerd3000]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What happened to you from yesterday morning to now? One of the biggest flips since the great model flip of December 1996! 
Im definitely not complaining though! 

Oof Dec 1996. A lot of 50F rain at the end of that month. No thanks.