ShawniganLake Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Managed to hit 80 here today. Warmer than I was expecting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 The NAO has just hit +2SD. That's the highest ever recorded in the month of July. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Greenland and NE Arctic Canada are packing on loads of snow/ice as a result. Large positive mass balance anomalies are being achieved all across the Arctic (land surface) domain. http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/bringing-harmonie-to-the-greenland-ice-sheet/ Martin Stendel, Polar Portal leader, agrees. “This year has been extremely unusual, with a snowy winter and then a cool period at the start of this month. It’s extremely important we get the surface mass balance right.” The period from the 27th June to the 5th July saw days with close to zero or even slightly positive SMB (a net gain in mass) as well as a record low temperature recorded at the DMI weather station at Summit -33.0 °C. This weather along with the snowfall in early June, and following from the heavy snow in the Autumn, has led to a relatively high surface mass balance for the time of year and an unusually bright and reflective ice sheet, as shown in the albedo anomaly map on the Polar Portal (and below). Professor Jason Box of GEUS explains “when we see cold snowy conditions like this in the summer time it brings melt to a halt. The fresh snow is bright and reflects sunlight whereas in normal years dark bare glacier ice is usually exposed at this time of year and so melt rates are strong. This is why we track the albedo through the year to see how much melt we can expect”. So far this summer there has been less melt than usual. As DMI weather forecaster Jesper Rosberg explains, “we have seen a persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation this summer and the jet stream has been very far south of Greenland with very cold air over the ice sheet, so the precipitation falling this summer has mostly been snow, rather rain. ” The cold and snowy conditions have been hindering scientific fieldwork this summer. But there are still several weeks of the ablation season left and the weather for the rest of July and August will determine the surface mass balance of Greenland this year. As far as DMI scientists know this is the first time that the SMB of the Greenland ice sheet has been calculated with such a sophisticated model in near real-time and it’s all the more interesting since we have snowfall interfering with melt. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Summer evenings are breezy in Vancouver WA We get a 20-25mph NW breeze down the Columbia most nights out here. Can be refreshing but makes evening runs annoying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 We get a 20-25mph NW breeze down the Columbia most nights out here. Can be refreshing but makes evening runs annoying.A moderately cooling breeze is a runner's worst nightmare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 A moderately cooling breeze is a runner's worst nightmare. Headwind sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Headwind sucks. Plan your route so you're always running to the southeast! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Plan your route so you're always running to the southeast! My ultimate goal is to one day jog the Columbia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Looks like possibility of dry t-storms today in the Wa/Or cascades as low moisture disturbance moves over the area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 My ultimate goal is to one day jog the Columbia.Jesus-style? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 12z Euro still says no to a heatwave this weekend. GFS has been going back and fourth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Jesus-style? Al Gore style. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 12Z GFS shows maybe .2 inches rain for me in a couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 12Z GFS shows maybe .2 inches rain for me in a couple days.You'll probably see 2 inches while the other Canadians on here see nothing. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 12Z GFS shows maybe .2 inches rain for me in a couple days.Garden destroyer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 18z waters down the weekend warmth and gets pretty cool again in the mid/long range. More in line with the Euro/EPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 18z waters down the weekend warmth and gets pretty cool again in the mid/long range. More in line with the Euro/EPS.Cool summer. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Cool summer.Just one summer month that will likely end up pretty close to average. Unless the last week of the month ends up as cool as modeled or even cooler. August and September are tough calls at this point. We are due for a pattern change soon, not sure how it might go, though. The coastal trough/intermountain heat ridge have been pretty persistent the last 2-3 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Just one summer month that will likely end up pretty close to average. Unless the last week of the month ends up as cool as modeled or even cooler. August and September are tough calls at this point. We are due for a pattern change soon, not sure how it might go, though. The coastal trough/intermountain heat ridge have been pretty persistent the last 2-3 weeks.That ridge isn't going anywhere fast. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 That ridge isn't going anywhere fast.There seems to be somewhat of a trend to nudge it east toward the northern plains in the mid-long range, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 There seems to be somewhat of a trend to nudge it east toward the northern plains in the mid-long range, though.I'm talking more from a large scale perspective. My feeling is it will be more east-based in August. #augusticebox Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Managed to hit 80 here today. Warmer than I was expecting. Still sitting at 79F here at 7pm, with a bit of an evening surge of warmth. Wasn't expecting today to be so warm, the pattern looks pretty typical and local forecasts weren't calling for much. Could be that rotation offshore has slackened gradients enough to subdue the typical sea breeze. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 I'm talking more from a large scale perspective. My feeling is it will be more east-based in August. #augusticebox #augustwashout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 #augustwashout#augusticeflows Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 #augusticeflows#iceageaugust Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 I'm talking more from a large scale perspective. My feeling is it will be more east-based in August. #augusticeboxIf so I will bust hard. I think I went +1.5 for PDX. #warmbiased Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 If so I will bust hard. I think I went +1.5 for PDX. #warmbiased#follower#impressionableyouth#newnormal Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 #follower#impressionableyouth#newnormal#dontgetaheadofyourself #monthstartsintwoweeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 #dontgetaheadofyourself #monthstartsintwoweeksIt's a no brainer. #backgroundstatesandothershitlikethat Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Would be a bad time for any significant offshore flow: http://i.imgur.com/WuzmmmE.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 It's a no brainer. #backgroundstatesandothershitlikethat#lotsofbumpworthystuffnow #finallygotyoutogooutonalimb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 #lotsofbumpworthystuffnow #finallygotyoutogooutonalimb #yuge Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Quick video I made of today's closest lightning strikes. The bolt at 1:10 struck about 4 houses down. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Pretty wacky here this evening, first a surge of warm air now the dewpoint has crashed from near 50F to 31F in just a few hours. About 10 miles north the dewpoint is still sitting around 50F and it's over 60F along in places along the East Vancouver Island. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Would be a bad time for any significant offshore flow: http://i.imgur.com/WuzmmmE.png I was just thinking that today. Models have been trending towards stronger onshore flow and cooler weather next week. 00Z GFS is following suit. Phil is going to freeze. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Phil is going to freeze.Would be a welcome change of pace. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 There seems to be somewhat of a trend to nudge it east toward the northern plains in the mid-long range, though.#trendingeast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 #trendingeastWell played. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 The GFS upgrade has been effective of its 12z run today. Let's see if it's any better than the previous version (doubtful). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017.htm Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Garden destroyer.If you say so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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