July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Just one summer month that will likely end up pretty close to average. Unless the last week of the month ends up as cool as modeled or even cooler.

 

August and September are tough calls at this point. We are due for a pattern change soon, not sure how it might go, though. The coastal trough/intermountain heat ridge have been pretty persistent the last 2-3 weeks.

The MJO will return to the Indian Ocean sometime during early/mid August.

 

End result of that could be a -PNA/Plains ridge pattern and an Atlantic hurricane burst from 8/10 - 8/20, following what might be a very warm 8/1 - 8/10 in the PNW/western Canada.

[Front Ranger]

The MJO will return to the Indian Ocean sometime during early/mid August.

 

End result of that could be a -PNA/Plains ridge pattern and an Atlantic hurricane burst from 8/10 - 8/20, following what might be a very warm 8/1 - 8/10 in the PNW/western Canada.

 

Three potential busts in one post! 

[Front Ranger]

Really jealous of the summer you guys are having. Lots of warm days with cool nights/mornings. Hard to imagine more comfortable summer weather (unless you like to be about and about late in the evening).

 

Definitely a departure from some recent summers where the warm departures came at least as much from the lows as the highs. Quite a few above normal highs with below normal lows recently.

[Phil]

Three potential busts in one post!

Warm July still on the table for the PNW?

 

That call ain't lookin' too hot.

[Front Ranger]

Warm July still on the table for the PNW?

 

That call ain't lookin' too hot.

 

We're almost 2/3 the way through the month and most of the PNW is above normal. Hard to say how things will trend beyond day 5. But below normal is certainly statistically less likely most places at this point.

 

 

Warm early summer, that's for sure.

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan is at +2.6. Gonna be tough to overcome that with what appears to be upcoming.

[Phil]

We're almost 2/3 the way through the month and most of the PNW is above normal. Hard to say how things will trend beyond day 5. But below normal is certainly statistically less likely most places at this point.

 

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Warm early summer, that's for sure.

If the modeling is correct (which remains to be seen), the west side will easily finish cooler than average for the month. We have another 13 days left, which is more than enough to send the monthly departure negative in most places.

 

FWIW, your summer analogs depicted a warm west side and cool east side/Intermountain west, which is exactly the opposite of what's occurring.

[BLI snowman]

If the modeling is correct (which remains to be seen), the west side will easily finish cooler than average for the month. We have another 13 days left, which is more than enough to send the monthly departure negative in most places.

 

FWIW, your summer analogs depicted a warm west side and cool east side/Intermountain west, which is exactly the opposite of what's occurring.

 

Haha, what a greenhorn-y weenie!

[Phil]

Big Aleutian ridge/-PNA signal on the 00z EPS for days 5-10.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1A0CED3A-E40B-4824-AD5B-33A5661739F2_zpsqsocckrx.png

[Tyler Mode]

Low of 47.9 this morning...my 10th day this month with a low in the 40s.

 

Average low so far for July is 49.5, 1.3 degrees cooler than June.

[Front Ranger]

If the modeling is correct (which remains to be seen), the west side will easily finish cooler than average for the month. We have another 13 days left, which is more than enough to send the monthly departure negative in most places.

 

FWIW, your summer analogs depicted a warm west side and cool east side/Intermountain west, which is exactly the opposite of what's occurring.

 

No. Here's what my analogs depicted vs. what your analogs depicted.

 

Mine:

 

 

Yours:

 

 

Reality (no option to do June 1 to date, this is closest):

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Slight chance at breaking our 31 day rainless streak tonight. Could even see some rare night thunderstorms, though with the current drought situation on the island that would substantially up the fire risk.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is sending the shortwave way up through central BC early next week instead of digging it over us as the 00Z run showed.

 

The upgraded version of the GFS is proving to be more erratic so far.   I see the parallel GFS is no longer available so it must have replaced the old operational version.

[TT-SEA]

MM5 shows some showers tomorrow from the Seattle area northward... and some sun breaks as well.     

[TT-SEA]

One month without rain now out here in the Snoqualmie Valley...

 

 

 

You can also see that summer basically started on 5/19 this year when dry weather became the default rather than the rule.  

[DareDuck]

Warm July still on the table for the PNW?

 

That call ain't lookin' too hot.

Once again the PNW ends at the Cascades...our half of the state is generally running 4-6 degrees above average with some areas more than 6 above normal this month.

[DareDuck]

No. Here's what my analogs depicted vs. what your analogs depicted.

 

Mine:

 

post-949-0-61999900-1495679368.png

 

Yours:

 

post-949-0-01829100-1495760584.png

 

Reality (no option to do June 1 to date, this is closest):

 

60dTDeptUS.png

Yours doesn't show the analog years. Just says June-September then blank.

[Front Ranger]

Yours doesn't show the analog years. Just says June-September then blank.

Yeah, I didn't include them back in May when I created that map because 1) I added some secondary analogs that I knew Phil would pick apart and 2) a little mystery never hurt anyone.

 

My primary analogs going into the summer were: 1986, 1991, 2004 and 2014.

[Front Ranger]

One month without rain now out here in the Snoqualmie Valley...

 

 

 

You can also see that summer basically started on 5/19 this year when dry weather became the default rather than the rule.

Have to imagine that 10 days with rain from May 19-July 19 is fairly unusual for your location.

 

How often have you gone a month without rain since you've lived there?

[TT-SEA]

Have to imagine that 10 days with rain from May 19-July 19 is fairly unusual for your location.

 

How often have you gone a month without rain since you've lived there?

 

It really close in most summers... technically it has not happened since 2012 when it did not rain from July 24 - Sept 10.  

 

There was only one day with rain from June 4 - July 25 in 2015... and that was barely measureable.

 

We only had one day with rain from June 28 - Aug 1 in 2013.

 

Only 2 days with a little rain from July 26 - Sept 16 in 2011 (adding up to .14)

 

We went exactly one month without rain from July 6 - Aug 6 in 2010.

 

And we went from June 23 - Aug 9 in 2009 with no rain... over 6 weeks.

[Front Ranger]

It really close in most summers... technically is has not happened since 2012 when it did not rain from July 24 - Sept 10.

 

There was only one day with rain from June 4 - July 25 in 2015... and that was barely measureable.

 

We only had one day with rain from June 28 - Aug 1 in 2013.

 

Only 2 days with a little rain from July 26 - Sept 16 in 2011 (adding up to .14)

 

We went exactly one month without rain from July 6 - Aug 6 in 2010.

 

And we went from June 23 - Aug 9 in 2009 with no rain... over 6 weeks.

What really seems to stand out about this stretch is how early in the summer it's occurred.

 

Will be interesting to see which places keep their streaks alive through tomorrow.

[Phil]

No. Here's what my analogs depicted vs. what your analogs depicted.

 

Mine:

 

post-949-0-61999900-1495679368.png

 

Yours:

 

post-949-0-01829100-1495760584.png

 

Reality (no option to do June 1 to date, this is closest):

 

60dTDeptUS.png

How do I know those are your analogs?

 

You've hidden them. I wonder why?

[Phil]

Once again the PNW ends at the Cascades...our half of the state is generally running 4-6 degrees above average with some areas more than 6 above normal this month.

Hey, now you know how I felt in J/A/S 2016, when the majority of the region was cooler than average, yet I was bashed over that stupid Puget sound hot spot.

 

Can't have it both ways, broski.

[DareDuck]

Hey, now you know how I felt in J/A/S 2016, when the majority of the region was cooler than average, yet I was bashed over that stupid Puget sound hot spot.

 

Can't have it both ways, broski.

I was with you then. If I were one to drudge up year old posts, you'd probably see me supporting you then. It just annoys me when the PNW is confined to the west side on here. Often even north of Salem. I get that's where the most people live on here, but the PNW is still the PNW and there are plenty of us elsewhere.

[TT-SEA]

I was with you then. If I were one to drudge up year old posts, you'd probably see me supporting you then. It just annoys me when the PNW is confined to the west side on here. Often even north of Salem. I get that's where the most people live on here, but the PNW is still the PNW and there are plenty of us elsewhere.

 

 

This is the opposite pattern as last July when it was cooler east of the mountains.  

 

Ironically... the Seattle area was just about perfect either way.  

[epiceast]

One month without rain now out here in the Snoqualmie Valley...

 

 

 

You can also see that summer basically started on 5/19 this year when dry weather became the default rather than the rule.  

[epiceast]

Looks like only February-April would have a negative tim index. Every other month has been good so far for Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like only February-April would have a negative tim index. Every other month has been good so far for Tim.

 

Very true.   I loved January... and its been close to perfect since the middle of May.   

 

The first half of May was still running an extremely negative TIM index though.    <_>

[stuffradio]

February was pretty good snow wise, but that's mostly only north of the border I think.

[TT-SEA]

February was pretty good snow wise, but that's mostly only north of the border I think.

 

 

The big snowstorm for the Seattle area was in early February.  

[TT-SEA]

Its dry... even up here now.

 

 

[Phil]

Nope, didn't change a thing on that map. It's exactly the same map I posted in the Summer 2017 Predictions thread back in May. Never had the years on it.

The summer analogs you and I discussed back in May (which you subsequently plotted on ESRL) certainly argue otherwise.

 

You never posted a redacted map in May. Unless you went back and edited them.

[Deweydog]

Sounds like Fred may need to hire a computer forensics expert.

 

#seriousshit

#worthit

[Front Ranger]

The summer analogs you and I discussed back in May (which you subsequently plotted on ESRL) certainly argue otherwise.

 

You never posted a redacted map in May. Unless you went back and edited them.

 

Redacted? I only posted one map, here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1560-summer-2017-predictions/

 

Nothing was ever changed about the map. I simply copied it from that post today and posted it in this thread, since you were on the attack again. The point of the map originally was not to show what analogs I used in the end, but to show how I thought the general temp patterns would play out - based on a mix of primary and secondary analogs.

[Phil]

Redacted? I only posted one map, here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1560-summer-2017-predictions/

 

Nothing was ever changed about the map. I simply copied it from that post today and posted it in this thread, since you were on the attack again. The point of the map originally was not to show what analogs I used in the end, but to show how I thought the general temp patterns would play out - based on a mix of primary and secondary analogs.

You probably went back and edited it.

 

You also got the pattern completely backwards since you forecasted a GOA ridge centered just offshore (your words). Whether you get lucky with the surface/thermals remains to be seen.

[Front Ranger]

You probably went back and edited it.

 

There is no logical reason to say that. I've never done anything like that on here, why would I start now?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Its dry... even up here now.

 

 

 

Still thinking this is "normal"?   

[TT-SEA]

Still thinking this is "normal"? 

 

 

Very much so... happens almost every summer.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Very much so... happens almost every summer.   

 

Maybe here in the rain shadow, but you live in a pretty rainy location. 

[Deweydog]

00z is running!