July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[ShawniganLake]

Managed to hit 80 here today. Warmer than I was expecting.

[Phil]

The NAO has just hit +2SD. That's the highest ever recorded in the month of July.

[Phil]

Greenland and NE Arctic Canada are packing on loads of snow/ice as a result. Large positive mass balance anomalies are being achieved all across the Arctic (land surface) domain.

 

http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/bringing-harmonie-to-the-greenland-ice-sheet/

 

Martin Stendel, Polar Portal leader, agrees. “This year has been extremely unusual, with a snowy winter and then a cool period at the start of this month. It’s extremely important we get the surface mass balance right.”

 

The period from the 27th June to the 5th July saw days with close to zero or even slightly positive SMB (a net gain in mass) as well as a record low temperature recorded at the DMI weather station at Summit -33.0 °C. This weather along with the snowfall in early June, and following from the heavy snow in the Autumn, has led to a relatively high surface mass balance for the time of year and an unusually bright and reflective ice sheet, as shown in the albedo anomaly map on the Polar Portal (and below). Professor Jason Box of GEUS explains “when we see cold snowy conditions like this in the summer time it brings melt to a halt. The fresh snow is bright and reflects sunlight whereas in normal years dark bare glacier ice is usually exposed at this time of year and so melt rates are strong. This is why we track the albedo through the year to see how much melt we can expect”.

 

So far this summer there has been less melt than usual. As DMI weather forecaster Jesper Rosberg explains, “we have seen a persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation this summer and the jet stream has been very far south of Greenland with very cold air over the ice sheet, so the precipitation falling this summer has mostly been snow, rather rain. ”

 

The cold and snowy conditions have been hindering scientific fieldwork this summer. But there are still several weeks of the ablation season left and the weather for the rest of July and August will determine the surface mass balance of Greenland this year. As far as DMI scientists know this is the first time that the SMB of the Greenland ice sheet has been calculated with such a sophisticated model in near real-time and it’s all the more interesting since we have snowfall interfering with melt.

[BLI snowman]

Summer evenings are breezy in Vancouver WA

 

We get a 20-25mph NW breeze down the Columbia most nights out here. Can be refreshing but makes evening runs annoying.

[Jesse]

We get a 20-25mph NW breeze down the Columbia most nights out here. Can be refreshing but makes evening runs annoying.

A moderately cooling breeze is a runner's worst nightmare.

[BLI snowman]

A moderately cooling breeze is a runner's worst nightmare.

 

Headwind sucks.

[Jesse]

Headwind sucks.

 

Plan your route so you're always running to the southeast!

[BLI snowman]

Plan your route so you're always running to the southeast!

 

My ultimate goal is to one day jog the Columbia.

[Jbolin]

Looks like possibility of dry t-storms today in the Wa/Or cascades as low moisture disturbance moves over the area

[Front Ranger]

My ultimate goal is to one day jog the Columbia.

Jesus-style?

[Jesse]

12z Euro still says no to a heatwave this weekend. GFS has been going back and fourth.

[BLI snowman]

Jesus-style?

 

Al Gore style.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS shows maybe .2 inches rain for me in a couple days.

[Front Ranger]

12Z GFS shows maybe .2 inches rain for me in a couple days.

You'll probably see 2 inches while the other Canadians on here see nothing.

[Jesse]

12Z GFS shows maybe .2 inches rain for me in a couple days.

Garden destroyer.

[Jesse]

18z waters down the weekend warmth and gets pretty cool again in the mid/long range. More in line with the Euro/EPS.

[Deweydog]

18z waters down the weekend warmth and gets pretty cool again in the mid/long range. More in line with the Euro/EPS.

Cool summer.

[Jesse]

Cool summer.

Just one summer month that will likely end up pretty close to average. Unless the last week of the month ends up as cool as modeled or even cooler.

 

August and September are tough calls at this point. We are due for a pattern change soon, not sure how it might go, though. The coastal trough/intermountain heat ridge have been pretty persistent the last 2-3 weeks.

[Deweydog]

Just one summer month that will likely end up pretty close to average. Unless the last week of the month ends up as cool as modeled or even cooler.

 

August and September are tough calls at this point. We are due for a pattern change soon, not sure how it might go, though. The coastal trough/intermountain heat ridge have been pretty persistent the last 2-3 weeks.

That ridge isn't going anywhere fast.

[Jesse]

That ridge isn't going anywhere fast.

There seems to be somewhat of a trend to nudge it east toward the northern plains in the mid-long range, though.

[Deweydog]

There seems to be somewhat of a trend to nudge it east toward the northern plains in the mid-long range, though.

I'm talking more from a large scale perspective. My feeling is it will be more east-based in August.

 

#augusticebox

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Managed to hit 80 here today. Warmer than I was expecting.

 

Still sitting at 79F here at 7pm, with a bit of an evening surge of warmth. Wasn't expecting today to be so warm, the pattern looks pretty typical and local forecasts weren't calling for much. Could be that rotation offshore has slackened gradients enough to subdue the typical sea breeze.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm talking more from a large scale perspective. My feeling is it will be more east-based in August.

 

#augusticebox

 

#augustwashout

[Deweydog]

#augustwashout

#augusticeflows

[Front Ranger]

#augusticeflows

#iceageaugust

[Jesse]

I'm talking more from a large scale perspective. My feeling is it will be more east-based in August.

 

#augusticebox

If so I will bust hard. I think I went +1.5 for PDX.

 

#warmbiased

[Deweydog]

If so I will bust hard. I think I went +1.5 for PDX.

 

#warmbiased

#follower

#impressionableyouth

#newnormal

[Jesse]

#follower

#impressionableyouth

#newnormal

#dontgetaheadofyourself

 

#monthstartsintwoweeks

[Deweydog]

#dontgetaheadofyourself

 

#monthstartsintwoweeks

It's a no brainer.

 

#backgroundstatesandothershitlikethat

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Would be a bad time for any significant offshore flow:

 

http://i.imgur.com/WuzmmmE.png

[Jesse]

It's a no brainer.

 

#backgroundstatesandothershitlikethat

#lotsofbumpworthystuffnow

 

#finallygotyoutogooutonalimb

 

[Deweydog]

#lotsofbumpworthystuffnow

 

#finallygotyoutogooutonalimb

 

#yuge

[Phil]

Quick video I made of today's closest lightning strikes.

 

The bolt at 1:10 struck about 4 houses down.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty wacky here this evening, first a surge of warm air now the dewpoint has crashed from near 50F to 31F in just a few hours. About 10 miles north the dewpoint is still sitting around 50F and it's over 60F along in places along the East Vancouver Island.

[TT-SEA]

Would be a bad time for any significant offshore flow:

 

http://i.imgur.com/WuzmmmE.png

 

 

I was just thinking that today.

 

Models have been trending towards stronger onshore flow and cooler weather next week.   00Z GFS is following suit.

 

Phil is going to freeze.  

[Phil]

Phil is going to freeze.

Would be a welcome change of pace.

[Timmy]

There seems to be somewhat of a trend to nudge it east toward the northern plains in the mid-long range, though.

#trendingeast

[Jesse]

#trendingeast

Well played.

[Phil]

The GFS upgrade has been effective of its 12z run today. Let's see if it's any better than the previous version (doubtful).

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017.htm

[stuffradio]

Garden destroyer.

If you say so.