July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[stuffradio]

How long has the dry streak gone on out there? It was spitting drizzle/light rain here for little while this afternoon but things still warmed up quite a bit; ended with a high near 75F.

June 21-July 2 was my rainless streak, then I had a trace on July 3, rain on the 16th, 20th and today. In June I had rain on June 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15, 16, 18-20.

[Phil]

You are going to straight up freeze in Everett. Looks like solid low clouds tonorrow until afternoon as well.

 

87 with a dewpoint of 60 on the lake now and it is flat out gorgeous.

I should be landing at around 11AM PDT tomorrow. Looking forward to the nicer temperatures.

[TT-SEA]

I should be landing at around 11AM PDT tomorrow. Looking forward to the nicer temperatures.

 

Clouds should still be thick at that time.   Its not as pretty flying in when you can't see the ground until the last second.   Should be sunny by 1 or 2 p.m. though.   

 

MOS guidance is around 80 so the afternoon and evening should be spectacular.   

[TT-SEA]

No low clouds on Monday and Tuesday morning... so those days will be warmer.

 

Looks like SEA hit 85 today... keeping the 70-85 streak alive.   Tuesday might end that with a high of 88 on the GFS MOS.

[Jesse]

Clouds should still be thick at that time. Its not as pretty flying in when you can't see the ground until the last second. Should be sunny by 1 or 2 p.m. though.

 

MOS guidance is around 80 so the afternoon and evening should be spectacular.

Why does it seem to matter to you so much what Phil thinks of it here?

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day on Lake Sammamish.   Water is so warm now as well... around 78.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Why does it seem to matter to you so much what Phil thinks of it here?

 

Just filling him on weather details.   Seattle is an awesome place to fly into when its clear.   You go right next to Mt. Rainier (which should be above the clouds tomorrow morning) and then around Lake Washington with views of the Puget Sound and the islands and downtown.    

[Phil]

Clouds should still be thick at that time. Its not as pretty flying in when you can't see the ground until the last second. Should be sunny by 1 or 2 p.m. though.

 

MOS guidance is around 80 so the afternoon and evening should be spectacular.

Good to know, thanks. After I land, I'm heading right to Safeco Field to meet family for the M's/Yanks game. Am really looking forward to it.

[TT-SEA]

Good to know, thanks. After I land, I'm heading right to Safeco Field to meet family for the M's/Yanks game. Am really looking forward to it.

 

That is cool.  I am jealous.  Its a really nice there on a summer afternoon.  

 

And you might get to see the big homeless encampments that I complain about by going to the stadium.

[ShawniganLake]

NWS Seattle @NWSSeattle

 

"If the mid 80s felt a bit warm today, it was because this was the 1st day in more than a year that Seattle had afternoon dewpoints over 60."

[stuffradio]

NWS Seattle @NWSSeattle

 

"If the mid 80s felt a bit warm today, it was because this was the 1st day in more than a year that Seattle had afternoon dewpoints over 60."

Thanks, Phil.

[TT-SEA]

NWS Seattle @NWSSeattle

 

"If the mid 80s felt a bit warm today, it was because this was the 1st day in more than a year that Seattle had afternoon dewpoints over 60."

 

Looks like the dewpoints will be in the 50s tomorrow and maybe upper 40s on Monday. 

[Jesse]

Just filling him on weather details. Seattle is an awesome place to fly into when its clear. You go right next to Mt. Rainier (which should be above the clouds tomorrow morning) and then around Lake Washington with views of the Puget Sound and the islands and downtown.

Fair enough. I guess I was more talking about the sarcastic comments saying how cold he will be here, etc.

[TT-SEA]

Fair enough. I guess I was more talking about the sarcastic comments saying how cold he will be here, etc.

 

He will be.   He is coming from a furnace.  

[James Jones]

Muggy evening.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows hot weather next weekend... surface map shows Portland at or above 100 by Sunday.

 

[ShawniganLake]

I bought a new air conditioner last week. The last time I acquired a new air conditioner was early July 2009

[Phil]

Goodbye swamp. See ya in the fall.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9CBDBC3-4D16-488C-BE0B-7BA6BB4BB843_zpspqbq7ldf.jpg

[WeatherArchive]

How are you all liking Phil's COLD summer prediction from all that convective activity from the IO?    I look at ocean indexes too and didn't see anything remotely unusual for some of the wild predictions.  I figured the summer would go like this.  A bunch of *sort of* warm patterns with a few hot days thrown in the mix keeping it slightly above average in the end.  

[Jesse]

How are you all liking Phil's COLD summer prediction from all that convective activity from the IO? I look at ocean indexes too and didn't see anything remotely unusual for some of the wild predictions. I figured the summer would go like this. A bunch of *sort of* warm patterns with a few hot days thrown in the mix keeping it slightly above average in the end.

No. Cool summer.

[Phil]

How are you all liking Phil's COLD summer prediction from all that convective activity from the IO? I look at ocean indexes too and didn't see anything remotely unusual for some of the wild predictions. I figured the summer would go like this. A bunch of *sort of* warm patterns with a few hot days thrown in the mix keeping it slightly above average in the end.

That wasn't my IO prediction, but I concede I've earned some trolling for my screw-up over the Pacific. I make mistakes too.

 

I don't think I'll be able to make a (relatively) confident long range forecast until the EHEM summer monsoonal circulations begin their seasonal decline (in October).

 

Airplane Wifi is slow, so I'm not sure this will show up.

[TT-SEA]

Soupy and cool this morning... low clouds hanging very low.    

 

Going to take most of the day to clear up per the ECMWF and the new MM5 NAM.    Should clear up near the Sound first but will take until maybe this evening out here in the foothills with NW flow.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting to see a good N and NE wind down the Sound (N13 at SEA) and a thick marine layer.   Normally that comes with brisk SW winds.

[Deweydog]

Soupy and cool this morning... low clouds hanging very low.

 

Going to take most of the day to clear up per the ECMWF and the new MM5 NAM. Should clear up near the Sound first but will take until maybe this evening out here in the foothills with NW flow.

Cold summer.

[ShawniganLake]

How are you all liking Phil's COLD summer prediction from all that convective activity from the IO? I look at ocean indexes too and didn't see anything remotely unusual for some of the wild predictions. I figured the summer would go like this. A bunch of *sort of* warm patterns with a few hot days thrown in the mix keeping it slightly above average in the end.

You should post seasonal forecasts for us.

[Jesse]

Cold summer.

Applies to anything less than all-time record warmth in deweyland.

[Deweydog]

Applies to anything less than all-time record warmth in deweyland.

Someone's having a high dewpoint weekend!

 

#philbait

#demoralizingobs

[Jesse]

Someone's having a high dewpoint weekend!

 

#philbait

#demoralizingobs

Still in Montana.

[Deweydog]

Still in Montana.

Can't escape those obs...

[Jesse]

Can't escape those obs...

Even harder to escape than our nipply summer!!

[Deweydog]

Even harder to escape than our nipply summer!!

Embrace it!

[Jesse]

Embrace it!

Who says I'm not. This is just silly banter.

[Deweydog]

Who says I'm not. This is just silly banter.

No one says anything around here.

[Jesse]

No one says anything around here.

Our current back and forth certainly hasn't disproven that.

[Deweydog]

Our current back and forth certainly hasn't disproven that.

Club Silencio.

[stuffradio]

No one says anything around here.

I just want to say something.

[Deweydog]

I just want to say something.

Almost 12 years and I've never felt like I had a voice here.

[TT-SEA]

Some sun breaks here already through the low clouds. That will make it a little more tolerable out there. It was way too dark and cold to mow the lawn earlier.

[stuffradio]

Some sun breaks here already through the low clouds. That will make it a little mote tolerable out there. It was way too dark and cold to mow the lawn earlier.

Mote tolerance is not acceptable!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Some sun breaks here already through the low clouds. That will make it a little more tolerable out there. It was way too dark and cold to mow the lawn earlier.

 

It cleared up pretty quickly here, sunny and 70F now with just some thin clouds on the peripheral. Looks like N/NW winds aloft, you might yet escape the convergence zone stratus bowl. When does daytime heating over the interior typical start to draw the stratus inland?