September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

I'm playing around with the moving average function some more. How about a list of the warmest 30-day periods at PDX? These are the real "warmest months" in PDX history, since nature doesn't care about our precise calendar.

 

75.25 (June 21 - July 20, 2015)

74.73 (July 14 - August 12, 1971)

74.47 (July 14 - August 12, 2009)

74.32 (July 21 - August 19, 1977)

74.28 (July 1 - July 30, 1985)

74.05 (July 16 - August 14, 1998)

74.00 (July 22 - August 20, 2004)

Interesting stuff. Never really looked much into the warm spell in summer 1971 until now.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 80 as of 1pm. 90 may be in reach today.

[TT-SEA]

Little bit of smoke filtering in through the pass again. Should only be for today... onshore flow for the rest of the week.

[ShawniganLake]

PDX up to 80 as of 1pm. 90 may be in reach today.

Could be the last run at it for the season.

[wx_statman]

Interesting stuff. Never really looked much into the warm spell in summer 1971 until now.

That one surprised me as well. I was familiar with the heat wave in August 1971 but I had never paid attention to how warm the preceding 25 days were.

[Jesse]

Could be the last run at it for the season.

Time well till!

[stuffradio]

Time well till!

Yvan eht nioj!

[wx_statman]

Out of curiosity, I ran the same numbers from earlier on just the maximums.

 

Warmest 40 day avg maximums:

 

87.83 (ending on 9/6/2017)

87.53 (ending on 8/1/2015)

86.93 (ending on 9/4/1967)

86.90 (ending on 8/15/1990)

86.73 (ending on 8/21/1971)

 

Warmest 30 day avg maximums:

 

89.43 (Jul 20 - Aug 18, 1977)

88.33 (Aug 8 - Sep 6, 1967)

88.27 (Jun 21 - Jul 20, 2015)

87.57 (Jul 31 - Aug 29, 2017)

87.37 (Jul 14 - Aug 12, 1990)

[wx_statman]

PDX up to 80 as of 1pm. 90 may be in reach today.

 

At least 91F (rounding-adjusted) @ 3:35

[Kayla]

At least 91F (rounding-adjusted) @ 3:35

 

Wow, pulled that one off rather effortlessly!

[Jesse]

Wow, pulled that one off rather effortlessly!

Story of this month. I'm fully prepared for some mind bending overachievement once the well advertised cool period arrives.

 

77-78 Friday?

[James Jones]

9/11 has hit 90+ in 6 of the last 10 years. It's been the most reliably hot day of the year lately.

[Jesse]

9/11 has hit 90+ in 6 of the last 10 years. It's been the most reliably hot day of the year lately.

I was just going to post something similar.

[wx_statman]

This was also our 24th day at 90+ this year. Tied 2009 for 2nd most all-time, behind only the 29 days in 2015.

[Jesse]

I'm thinking ending the 75+ streak might be a hard sell until Sunday or maybe Monday.

[wx_statman]

I'm thinking ending the 75+ streak might be a hard sell until Sunday or maybe Monday.

Justin might have been on to something with his call for 60 days a couple weeks ago. Thursday will be #60 if we reach 75.

[Front Ranger]

I'm thinking ending the 75+ streak might be a hard sell until Sunday or maybe Monday.

Someone has learned to bet on warmth, and is now doubling down. Now to get Phil on board...

[Jesse]

Someone has learned to bet on warmth, and is now doubling down. Now to get Phil on board...

I bet on cool when it seems likely.

[Front Ranger]

I bet on cool when it seems likely.

Second half of this month?

[Jesse]

Second half of this month?

 

17th-21st or so looking reasonably likely. Anyone's guess beyond that.

[Front Ranger]

17th-21st or so looking reasonably likely. Anyone's guess beyond that.

 

 

I'd put these odds for the 14th-30th running cool.

 

OLM: 80%

EUG: 70%

SEA/PDX: 65%

[seattleweatherguy]

83 in bothell last 80 of the year?

[Jesse]

hedges-12.jpg

 

I'd put these odds for the 14th-30th running cool.

 

OLM: 80%

EUG: 70%

SEA/PDX: 65%

Cool numbers.

 

Is that Tim's yard?

[stuffradio]

18Z GFS thickness drops to 535 at hour 348 and 850mb temp goes below 0.

[Phil]

17th-21st or so looking reasonably likely. Anyone's guess beyond that.

Well, it looks like the 9/15 - 9/20 start date was a pretty good call after all.

[Kayla]

Story of this month. I'm fully prepared for some mind bending overachievement once the well advertised cool period arrives.

 

77-78 Friday?

 

Maybe... but I think Wednesday is the 75+ record breaker day. 

[Kayla]

hedges-12.jpg

 

I'd put these odds for the 14th-30th running cool.

 

OLM: 80%

EUG: 70%

SEA/PDX: 65%

 

That's pretty specific!

[Front Ranger]

That's pretty specific!

No hedging for me! The cool starts in 3 days.

[wx_statman]

Pretty cool story - Harvey and Irma, married 75 years

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/us/harvey-irma-couple.html?mcubz=0

[TT-SEA]

Pretty cool story - Harvey and Irma, married 75 years

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/us/harvey-irma-couple.html?mcubz=0

 

That is so funny.   And they are from Spokane.  

[stuffradio]

Joe Bastardi made a video post today, and he mentioned a pattern flip at the end of the month with abnormally low snow levels in the NW part of the US.

[wx_statman]

Joe Bastardi made a video post today, and he mentioned a pattern flip at the end of the month with abnormally low snow levels in the NW part of the US.

 

1972 repeat incoming??

[Kayla]

Joe Bastardi made a video post today, and he mentioned a pattern flip at the end of the month with abnormally low snow levels in the NW part of the US.

 

Pattern flip is here this week into mid next week with snow down to around 5,000' here. Weeklies do not look all that impressive beyond that so it's anyone's guess I'd say at this point.

[Jesse]

1972 repeat incoming??

Fairly hot summer giving away to a cold, active fall pattern could be a good match. I forget what ENSO was that year.

[Phil]

Joe Bastardi made a video post today, and he mentioned a pattern flip at the end of the month with abnormally low snow levels in the NW part of the US.

Troughy/cool persists for the next 15-20 days at least, maybe longer.

[Deweydog]

Anyone else worried about wildland firefighters and possible hypothermia coming up?

[wx_statman]

Fairly hot summer giving away to a cold, active fall pattern could be a good match. I forget what ENSO was that year.

 

Strong Nino! So not a good match. 

[Phil]

Troughy/cool persists for the next 15-20 days at least, maybe longer.

Edit: Read that post wrong. I do see -PNA/troughing continuing through the remainder of September, possibly beyond and into the first week of October. After that I'm not sure yet, but I'm leading towards a period of +EPO/zonal.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a little rumbler to my SW about 8-8:30pm this evening, right over Keno and north of. Peak lightning was every minute or so, then eventually weakened to every 3-4 minutes. Thunder was heard, although distantly. 

 

Should be my 11th t'storm day this year. I think this is my first post for September... Not as much time for weather posting lately.

[Jesse]

Strong Nino! So not a good match.

That's what I thought. Then I edited my post. Shouldn't have second guessed myself!