Kayla Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Anyone else worried about wildland firefighters and possible hypothermia coming up?Actually yes thanks for mentioning!! NWS out here is actually worried enough to voice the same concerns in their discussions. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Joe Bastardi made a video post today, and he mentioned a pattern flip at the end of the month with abnormally low snow levels in the NW part of the US. Did he talk much about his massive Irma bust? That guy is a clown. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Actually yes thanks for mentioning!! NWS out here is actually worried enough to voice the same concerns in their discussions.They cancelled some of the night shifts in central BC, too cold. The firefighters reported having to break ice to get things started first thing in the morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 They cancelled some of the night shifts in central BC, too cold. The firefighters reported having to break ice to get things started first thing in the morning.I'm sure they are all praying for hot and dry weather to return. That....or they are glad to see the signs of fall because it means the fire season will be over soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Did he talk much about his massive Irma bust? That guy is a clown.Lay off of Phil, man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 22.6c with 590 heights over SLE this afternoon. No wonder we hit 90+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Lay off of Phil, man.Phil is Bastardi? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Phil is Bastard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 6Z GFS is really wet, 3+" of rain within a couple days next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Meaning rainfall for everyone early next week... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 12z Euro is quite the cool run. No Indian Summer this year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 12z Euro is quite the cool run. No Indian Summer this year.Technically... Indian Summer is defined as a warm period after the first killing frost. And I don't think the ECMWF run goes out 2 months through mid-November. Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. The US National Weather Servicedefines this as weather conditions that are sunny and clear with above normal temperatures, occurring late-September to mid-November.[1] It is usually described as occurring after a killing frost.[1] Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Meaning rainfall for everyone early next week... Victoria rain shadow. "vancouverislandsouth" will not be pleased. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Victoria rain shadow. "vancouverislandsouth" will not be pleased.He should move to Sitka. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Technically... Indian Summer is defined as a warm period after the first killing frost. And I don't think the ECMWF run goes out 2 months through mid-November. Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. The US National Weather Servicedefines this as weather conditions that are sunny and clear with above normal temperatures, occurring late-September to mid-November.[1] It is usually described as occurring after a killing frost.[1] Growing up in the PNW, it meant summer weather in late September/early October. Killing frosts don't usually occur until mid October in most areas, anyway. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 GFS ensembles also suggest below normal temps for the PNW for the next couple weeks. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Growing up in the PNW, it meant summer weather in late September/early October. Killing frosts don't usually occur until mid October in most areas, anyway. So... a deep trough for 3-4 days in the middle of September means that it will be cold and rainy from now until November? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Lay off of Phil, man.I REFUSE TO BE A STATISTIC. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 So... a deep trough for 3-4 days in the middle of September means that it will be cold and rainy from now until November? No, but the termination of the off-equator WPAC forcing does imply a colder, troughier period lasting several weeks. It won't be nearly enough to erase the warm September anomaly, but it's the beginning of the transition into the winter circulation. I don't see any signs of a warm/ridgy pattern returning until the second week of October, at earliest, unless I'm too slow again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 So... a deep trough for 3-4 days in the middle of September means that it will be cold and rainy from now until November? No. There's just no sign of warmth for the foreseeable future. And FWIW, most years that were warm/dry in the late September/early October period were +ENSO. There are exceptions, of course, but years transitioning to -ENSO tend to end "summer" earlier. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Technically... Indian Summer is defined as a warm period after the first killing frost. And I don't think the ECMWF run goes out 2 months through mid-November. Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. The US National Weather Servicedefines this as weather conditions that are sunny and clear with above normal temperatures, occurring late-September to mid-November.[1] It is usually described as occurring after a killing frost.[1]I think we might qualify for an Indian Summer after this Saturday or Sunday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 No, but the termination of the off-equator WPAC forcing does imply a colder, troughier period lasting several weeks. It won't be nearly enough to erase the warm September anomaly, but it's the beginning of the transition into the winter circulation. I don't see any signs of a warm/ridgy pattern returning until the second week of October, at earliest, unless I'm too slow again. You are always too slow. And early to mid October would be a great time to have the PNW definition of Indian Summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 You are always too slow. And early to mid October would be a great time to have the PNW definition of Indian Summer. Yeah, I really wish we had an Indian Summer all of late august-early October, after a nice deep trough and a killing frost(as well as a fire killing rain) in early/mid august. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Warm today around 90F in the shade. In the sun it's 99F. Humidity is 30% The sky is yucked over. I have a regular mercury thermometer protected in the shade and an (exposed) junko weather station in the sun during the afternoon since there is no other spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Yeah, I really wish we had an Indian Summer all of late august-early October(after a nice deep trough and a killing first in early/mid august).Isn't Indian summer's only a synoptic situation east of the Rockies? Usually you get your first hard freeze that kills crops then warmth returns sometimes for lengthy periods of times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Top 10 driest Sep/Oct combos for PDX: 1952, 1965, 1974, 1976, 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 2002, 2006. Heavily skewed towards +ENSO (8/10). Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Atlantic ACE is already the 7th highest on record. This image from @recretos on twitter correlates A/S/O Atlantic ACE to the following winter circulation (DJF): http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3DB4A717-6EA5-4A11-9C54-7CC52BFE4C82_zpshccj2eck.jpg While some of this is ENSO-related, the NAO signal speaks to a longer term relationship between the winter NAM and Atlantic tropical activity/AMO. This image is also attributed to @recretos: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/99A5CF88-E8F5-4836-A341-6D767B70393F_zpsrc89op1e.jpg Note how higher Atlantic ACE tends to correlate to stronger polar blocking in the long run. Probably related to the MDR/IO SSTA/wind stress response to the wavetrain under a -NAM background. Short term it's less certain but worth noting. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 The upward trend in the NAM (AO/NAO) since the 1970s does speak to something greater, however the Atlantic ACE does provide some level of subdecadal (and even seasonal) predictability, in this case. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Top 10 driest Sep/Oct combos for PDX: 1952, 1965, 1974, 1976, 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 2002, 2006. Heavily skewed towards +ENSO (8/10). My local history guide (everyone's favorite) says there two likely paths from here... a complete descent into cold and rainy for fall (like off a cliff in 2012) or a period of variability with alternating periods of rainy and cool mixed with periods of dry and pleasant Note that pleasant does not always mean warm as temperatures start becoming dependent on inversions pretty soon. Staying warm and dry is not really an option from what I have seen. I really like seeing the deep trough showing up for next week. It will bring some needed rain and end the fire season and its early enough to possibly avoid the cliff scenario in October. No science here. Just what I have seen locally with a weak Nina following a long, dry summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 For analog fans, the only years w/ more Atlantic ACE (through today) are 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995, and 2004, and 2005. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 This is also the first year I can remember where a good portion of the far northern Canadian Arctic remained snow covered through the summer. Snowcover remains well above normal just about everywhere across the high latitudes. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6CD905A2-C5CA-4643-9099-6668BB5D9B8F_zpszl6b5kla.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 For analog fans, the only years w/ more Atlantic ACE (through today) are 1893, 1933, 1950, 1995, and 2004, and 2005. I have heard great things about December of 1933. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 I have heard great things about December of 1933. WA state record for precip in a single month. Would be great! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 WA state record for precip in a single month. Would be great! Records are made to broken. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 My local history guide (everyone's favorite) says there two likely paths from here... a complete descent into cold and rainy for fall (like off a cliff in 2012) or a period of variability with alternating periods of rainy and cool mixed with periods of dry and pleasant Note that pleasant does not always mean warm as temperatures start becoming dependent on inversions pretty soon. Staying warm and dry is not really an option from what I have seen. I really like seeing the deep trough showing up for next week. It will bring some needed rain and end the fire season and its early enough to possibly avoid the cliff scenario in October. No science here. Just what I have seen locally with a weak Nina following a long, dry summer. I'd lean towards that. It does fit climo better than 2012 or last year for that matter. But definitely agree that the ridgy and warm patterns that have dominated since mid May are probably done for awhile. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 At least 86 at PDX. Another overachiever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 At least 86 at PDX. Another overachiever. Not really though. It was 21.2c over SLE this morning...and highs were 91 at both SLE and EUG. I don't know why mets thought today would only be in the low 80's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Nice day today. Made it to 74. Few clouds out there today (more over the Olympics), but quite a bit of sun as well. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Not really though. It was 21.2c over SLE this morning...and highs were 91 at both SLE and EUG. I don't know why mets thought today would only be in the low 80's.There's more that factors into the daily high than morning 850s, of course. I think many were anticipating cool NW flow to cap things off more quickly, earlier in the afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 There's more that factors into the daily high than morning 850s, of course. I think many were anticipating cool NW flow to cap things off more quickly, earlier in the afternoon. I dunno, today seemed destined for at least the mid 80's. Especially after the 63 degree low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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