SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 For Octüber, or future months several months down the road? Dec-Feb looks below normal Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Dec-Feb looks below normalHappiness is always just 90 days away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 If you are really so obsessed with knowing the real me you should add me on Facebook. weathernerdsmeet.com Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 How did they do in Dec 1996/Nov 2006/Feb 2011? Those were pretty big events on the other side of the Strait. They got slammed in Dec 1996, but then again so did everyone from the central part of the Puget Sound moving northward. Port Townsend wasn't reporting snowfall that month, but 25" fell in Sequim and 24" in Coupeville. Given that Port Townsend is between those two locations I would say 2 feet is a good bet. Tough to say for November 2006 since a bunch of stations weren't reporting, but Forks did record 8". In Feb 2011, Coupeville recorded 5" and Sequim recorded a 4" depth on the 25th (without reporting the total snowfall that actually fell). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 I think that one is pretty dubious, looks to me like it got entered on WRCC wrong. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-9869909D-F644-459D-A7BE-0E921F214D09.pdf That was a significant event for NW WA, but I'm not aware of any daily totals that high. Yup, I should have known better than to trust that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 If you could rape, torture and murder a cold enthusiast every few years and get off scott free, would you? I think most people would at least consider it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 I think most people would at least consider it? We aren't that bad are we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 They got slammed in Dec 1996, but then again so did everyone from the central part of the Puget Sound moving northward. Port Townsend wasn't reporting snowfall that month, but 25" fell in Sequim and 24" in Coupeville. Given that Port Townsend is between those two locations I would say 2 feet is a good bet. Tough to say for November 2006 since a bunch of stations weren't reporting, but Forks did record 8". In Feb 2011, Coupeville recorded 5" and Sequim recorded a 4" depth on the 25th (without reporting the total snowfall that actually fell).This is great information. I appreciate that my query earlier lead to all of this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 We aren't that bad are we?It depends. People locked outside on a winter night would definitely consider the offer, especially if you were to walk up to them and state your preferences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 It depends. People locked outside on a winter night would definitely consider the offer, especially if you were to walk up to them and state your preferences.I think most people would be more inclined to rape and murder a vegan with impunity before a cold enthusiast. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 I think most people would be more inclined to rape and murder a vegan with impunity before a cold enthusiast.I think that depends on how cold or hungry they are at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Was up by Darrington and Rockport today. Drove through some really heavy showers up there. It was pretty cool at times it was raining, but yet you look up and you can see the surrounding snowy peaks. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Some very beautiful CFS monthlies. Nice to hear! No doubt the deep troughs we are seeing are a really good sign. The one this weekend is looking really good now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Happiness is always just 90 days away.90 days is the new 384 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Nice to hear! No doubt the deep troughs we are seeing are a really good sign. The one this weekend is looking really good now. On what? The 18Z GFS? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Clearing / drying from the north is clearly showing up on the sat pic now. Should be some chilly nights this week! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Maybe in the 30,s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Pouring rain here again now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Pretty cool to see a shelf cloud in the PNW. I've never seen one myself http://katu.com/news/offbeat/gallery/dramatic-shelf-cloud-brings-sudden-burst-of-wind-to-olympic-peninsula#photo-1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking. A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Live seismograph monitoring Agung. The last hour looks pretty active. https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/ Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking. A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability. That is what I have been thinking... cheering on the Nina might be fools gold. I am hoping for a weak Nina to boost the odds of blocking. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 00z alert! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 The system doesn't seem intent on entering a "healthy" La Niña state right now. Ironically, this might be a blessing in disguise if you're afraid of a relentless +EPO/lack of blocking. A weaker low frequency Niña circulation would promote more intraseasonal/MJO forcing, which could amplify the wavetrain and allow for more pattern variability. That probably would be fine. It's obvious we don't have to worry about a Nino this winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 The trough coming late this week looks to drop 850s to the 0 to 2C range now. Another solid shot of chilly air. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Clearing / drying from the north is clearly showing up on the sat pic now. Should be some chilly nights this week! Deep troughing would make you happier, though. - Tim Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 It's gonna be a warm October. -2 at PDX so far... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 -2 at PDX so far...You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 It appears that the GFS output is just stated as fact now. 12Z ECMWF has 850mb temps around +8C again by next Sunday afternoon FWIW. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 It appears that the GFS output is just stated as fact now. 12Z ECMWF has 850mb temps around +8C again by next Sunday afternoon FWIW. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays. PDX ended up not even close to a record warm month. I'm on fire. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Down to 44 here. Should be the first 30s of the season tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 You've already got enough on your plate after last month. Might want to sit out a few plays.Ooooooh sh*t. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Canadian is solidly on the trough next weekend train. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Down to 44 here. Should be the first 30s of the season tonight. Nice, seeing some mid 40s in NW WA as well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Canadian is solidly on the trough next weekend train. gem_z500a_us_24.png If the 00Z ECMWF still looks the same... then the other models will eventually catch up. The 12Z EPS and control run agreed with the operational ECMWF. But you already know and that and are trying to troll me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 If the 00Z ECMWF still looks the same... then the other models will eventually catch up. The 12Z EPS and control run agreed with the operational ECMWF. But you already know and that and are trying to troll me. Just posting model maps, dude. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 If the 00Z ECMWF still looks the same... then the other models will eventually catch up. The 12Z EPS and control run agreed with the operational ECMWF. But you already know and that and are trying to troll me. I think a wise man once said...not everything's about you. And Jim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Just posting model maps, dude. Well... you trolled me on the last page so I was guessing this was part of that. No big deal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2017 Report Share Posted October 2, 2017 Well... you trolled me on the last page so I was guessing this was part of that. No big deal. That wasn't trolling. It was spoofing your trolling of Jim. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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