TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 MJO is roaring through Phase-6/WPAC right now. Will propagate right across the dateline (phases 7/8), then probably hit a wall as the Niña background state destructively interferes. Still, it will perturb the Niña system for awhile, perhaps even degrading it until convection restarts in the IO/Indo domain. Really hope that doesn't doom our winter. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 My impression about late October / early November, is that it's probably the time of year when the daily standard deviation in temps, is at its lowest. At least for lowlands east of the Cascades and in the Gorge. We don't go more than 10-12 degrees above or below average during Halloween season very often. Inversions are beginning to seriously nerf our sunny warm spells, and the arctic airmasses usually haven't developed enough to get real cold yet. (There are, of course, the rare exceptions.)The west side of the Cascades might fare relatively better in these late-season ridges, if they can get a good downslope warming effect. But even that's far from a guarantee at this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Really hope that doesn't doom our winter.It won't. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 PDX in the 40s. Score!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Super -NAO on the clown range GFS. Result is, not surprisingly, a much colder pattern in the western and central US. If only it was real, lol. #niña-naoclimo Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Fun to stare at, though. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/227E106F-25A2-4F63-A3E7-4D7483A30D37_zpsmbmmdodb.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 It's a bit more violent than Seinfeld. But much like that show, it's often a forum about nothing. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Its mostly just because the majority of the posters here are from Washington. Also I was just going to say, you seem to shortchange 92-93 a bit. It was by far the best winter in the Willamette Valley for snow in my lifetime. Eh, don't know about that. I'd say about 40% of active posters are from OR, 40% from WA, 10% from the Great White North, and 10% from elsewhere. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 But much like that show, it's often a forum about nothing.Winter is certainly not nothing. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Pretty big changes on tonight's GFS. Looks like more ridging tries to build further west. The impressive thing about all runs is the continued lack of low pressure over the NE Pacific. This is the time of year that often sets a precedent for winter in that region. Obviously if we hold onto that theme this winter we will have a fun one! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Really hope that doesn't doom our winter. I think the winter is already set to be good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Pretty big changes on tonight's GFS. Looks like more ridging tries to build further west. The impressive thing about all runs is the continued lack of low pressure over the NE Pacific. This is the time of year that often sets a precedent for winter in that region. Obviously if we hold onto that theme this winter we will have a fun one!The LR has a SE ridge too, but it's not very strong yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Pretty big changes on tonight's GFS. Looks like more ridging tries to build further west. The impressive thing about all runs is the continued lack of low pressure over the NE Pacific. This is the time of year that often sets a precedent for winter in that region. Obviously if we hold onto that theme this winter we will have a fun one!The ridging backbuilds due to constructive interference with the downstream wave breaking. In other words, that Hudson Bay vortex was replaced by a giant anticyclone. After this week's wavebreaking event, the stability of the NAO block will probably determine how the pattern progresses, rather than the Pacific. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 The GFS and GEM completely disagree 240 hours out. The GEM has a mega death ridge through western NA and GFS is pretty troughy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 The GFS and GEM completely disagree 240 hours out. The GEM has a mega death ridge through western NA and GFS is pretty troughy. gem_z500aNorm_namer_41.pnggfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.pngNote the differences over the Arctic/Greenland domain. Much like traffic on a highway, when there's a blockage downstream, it affects the flow of traffic upstream. In this case we have a series of NATL wavebreaks that will try to act as such "blockages" on the wavetrain. Stronger, more stable wavebreaks downstream will push the trough anomaly farther southwest. Weaker, more unstable wavebreaks will favor an eastward progression of the trough anomaly. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Winter is certainly not nothing. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 The GFS and GEM completely disagree 240 hours out. The GEM has a mega death ridge through western NA and GFS is pretty troughy. gem_z500aNorm_namer_41.pnggfs_z500aNorm_namer_41.png Even the GEM shows a lack of low pressure over the NE Pacific though. That has been the screaming message on every model run. Huge implications. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Looking at the surface pressure gradients later this month we look well set for an inversion with very weak gradients developing and warm air aloft. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Eh, don't know about that. I'd say about 40% of active posters are from OR, 40% from WA, 10% from the Great White North, and 10% from elsewhere. 55% WA, 30% OR, 15% BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 55% WA, 30% OR, 15% BC.Flatiron/Me/Black Hole/Kayla/Andie/Luminen/etc contribute something like 40% of the posts here..I think? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 A seasonal 41 this morning. Long range starting to look okay. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Flatiron/Me/Black Hole/Kayla/Andie/Luminen/etc contribute something like 40% of the posts here..I think?He said “active poster” %, not post %. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 He said “active poster” %, not post %.Hot take!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 55% WA, 30% OR, 15% BC. Could be, technically. Although I think Portland metro people in Vancouver and such associate more with OR posters than Puget Sounders. I think the split is pretty even between Portland metro south, and Washingtonians north of there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 And only a handful south of PDX metro. SFA and myself. There's others but they escape me at the moment. Anybody from south valley like Corvallis or Eugene here? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 And only a handful south of PDX metro. SFA and myself. There's others but they escape me at the moment. Anybody from south valley like Corvallis or Eugene here?There’s a poster named Eujunga who is sometimes in Eugene, but spends the rest of the time in Tujunga, CA I believe. There is a poster down there named Dolt as well. We also have Perturburance, who lives in Corvallis, but he doesn’t post much. DareDuck is originally from Eugene but is now in Bend. I feel like there could be some other occasional Eugene posters besides Eujunga and Dolt though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 There’s a poster named Eujunga who is sometimes in Eugene, but spends the rest of the time in Tujunga, CA I believe. We also have Perturburance, who lives in Corvallis, but he doesn’t post much. DareDuck is originally from Eugene but is now in Bend. I feel like there are some other occasional Eugene posters besides Eujunga though.Dolt. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Beautiful morning... on Monday of course. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Noticed on the way in to downtown the Willamette is noticeably higher than last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Noticed on the way in to downtown the Willamette is noticeably higher than last week. I'd say... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 With only a slight chance of showers for some areas on Wednesday, today marks the start of what may turn out to be one of the more lengthy dry spells this time of year for the PNW. Things could always change, of course, but model consensus is strong right now for things remaining dry for at least the next 10 days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Looks like Shawnigan Lake is running approx -1.5F for the month to date. Considering our daily averages are down to 55/41, it’s going to take some very chilly mornings during this upcoming dry spell to hold that negative departure thru the 31st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 With only a slight chance of showers for some areas on Wednesday, today marks the start of what may turn out to be one of the more lengthy dry spells this time of year for the PNW. Things could always change, of course, but model consensus is strong right now for things remaining dry for at least the next 10 days. I don't expect anymore meaningful rainfall this month. Currently at 8.90", average here for the month total is 6.20" so it will end up above average for the month. 2016 and 2012 were wetter in October here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Noticed on the way in to downtown the Willamette is noticeably higher than last week.Probably because of all the rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 I don't expect anymore meaningful rainfall this month. Currently at 8.90", average here for the month total is 6.20" so it will end up above average for the month. 2016 and 2012 were wetter in October here. Not many Octobers that produced this much rain across the region, but only 9-10 days of meaningful rainfall. 1994 is probably the most extreme example. 21 dry days at PDX, yet a monthly rain total of 8.41"...thanks mainly to three days with 2.3"+ rainfall towards the end of the month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Things maybe cooling a bit in the clown range? You wonder if this ridge is just going to be persistent through the winter? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Things maybe cooling a bit in the clown range? You wonder if this ridge is just going to be persistent through the winter? No. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Things maybe cooling a bit in the clown range? You wonder if this ridge is just going to be persistent through the winter?It’s October 23rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Things maybe cooling a bit in the clown range? You wonder if this ridge is just going to be persistent through the winter? It won't be. And it probably won't be as persistent as things look now... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Looks like Shawnigan Lake is running approx -1.5F for the month to date. Considering our daily averages are down to 55/41, it’s going to take some very chilly mornings during this upcoming dry spell to hold that negative departure thru the 31st.That’s crazy. It’s interesting how the coldest anomalies have been focused to the south so often in recent years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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