October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

Not entirely sure, but this might be the strongest ridge we've seen since July 2006.

 

597 heights over MFR this afternoon. 

[stuffradio]

A week ago when I left the leaves were just turning. Now a week later we're on the back side of peak foliage already. It was quick and it was vibrant. Should be a spectacular week/week and a half. 

I'm expecting cherry blossoms by next week!

[TT-SEA]

Problems in Europe... 00Z ECMWF is not running yet.  

[Front Ranger]

I'm starting to wonder if this might be a return to the days of ol' when we have to wait for your meltdown before things kick into gear and you refreeze. The November stuff probably isn't gonna be a show stopper.

 

I thought you were leading the Nov 1985 redux train?

[Front Ranger]

Problems in Europe... 00Z ECMWF is not running yet.  

 

Thanks, Brexit.

[Front Ranger]

Looking at the GFS ensembles, I'm pretty confident I've never seen such a persistent blocking episode modeled for the NE Pacific at this time of year. Very slow retrogression.

[Brennan]

My high school Spanish teacher would not be pleased.

Haven't been on the forum for months. Haven't laughed THIS hard to myself in months. It's good to be back.

[BLI snowman]

Looking at the GFS ensembles, I'm pretty confident I've never seen such a persistent blocking episode modeled for the NE Pacific at this time of year. Very slow retrogression.

 

1993 was legit.

[wx_statman]

1993 was legit.

 

Analog?? Turkeys were frozen that Thanksgiving.

[BLI snowman]

Analog?? Turkeys were frozen that Thanksgiving.

 

Leon Lett remembers!

 

[snow_wizard]

Truly unbelievable how little low pressure the ECMWF shows over the NE Pacific during week 2.  There is one day the lowest pressure over the ENTIRE North Pacific east of the Date Line is 995mb.  It's a literal parade of upper level and surface high pressure systems.  As Phil said yesterday it's like a log jam of ridges that eventually leads to retrogression.  In the winter this would be an epic cold situation for much of the country.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the GFS ensembles, I'm pretty confident I've never seen such a persistent blocking episode modeled for the NE Pacific at this time of year. Very slow retrogression.

 

This is very exciting.  Unprecedented high pressure anoms at 45N - 150W for the month of October.  Huge potential this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ALERT

 

[WeatherArchive]

This is very exciting.  Unprecedented high pressure anoms at 45N - 150W for the month of October.  Huge potential this winter.

What do you mean huge potential? How does a warm ridge mean colder later?  Seems to me this ridge would block anything from the north coming in.

[WeatherArchive]

ALERT

 

 

ALERT

 

I stopped paying attention to the GFS when the Euro started supersede it during the (ridge) winters.  The Euro had it 95 percent spot on.

[TT-SEA]

Watching the morning shows on cable news and the live background views of DC look stunning... the fall colors are amazing right now.  

[Kayla]

ALERT

 

Long range 00z ECMWF operational and EPS are now also showing a clear retrogression signal at day 10.

 

Starting to look more like the first week of November could bring the seasons first cold shot rather than second week.

[TT-SEA]

Long range 00z ECMWF operational and EPS are now also showing a clear retrogression signal at day 10.

 

Starting to look more like the first week of November could bring the seasons first cold shot rather than second week.

 

Yeah... feels that way now.  

 

Sort of a 2003 type progression from fire hose to retrogression and cold?

[Kayla]

Yeah... feels that way now.  

 

Sort of a 2003 type progression from fire hose to retrogression and cold?

 

The progression of 2003 was all about a week earlier (I remember a cold Halloween) but yeah, a pretty close match. 

[TT-SEA]

The progression of 2003 was all about a week earlier (I remember a cold Halloween) but yeah, a pretty close match. 

 

The details are clearly different... I am just talking about the overall theme.

[Front Ranger]

I stopped paying attention to the GFS when the Euro started supersede it during the (ridge) winters. The Euro had it 95 percent spot on.

I still pay attention to the GFS, but never past day 10. There's just no reason to for actual guidance. I guess the clown range solutions can be mildly entertaining. But I never really liked clowns anyway.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... feels that way now.

 

Sort of a 2003 type progression from fire hose to retrogression and cold?

Yeah, mentioned some of the pattern progression similarities this month to 2003 a few days ago. I'm not convinced of a full-scale retrogression and cold yet, though. At least not for the PNW...for Kayla's area it looks very likely things will get pretty cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Leon Lett remembers!

 

 

I actually remember this game. We had about an inch of snow in Silverton a couple days before Thanksgiving and several nights with lows in the teens. 

[TT-SEA]

I actually remember this game. We had about an inch of snow in Silverton a couple days before Thanksgiving and several nights with lows in the teens. 

 

I remember watching that game as well at a family gathering in Minnesota on a snowy day.

[Phil]

[stuffradio]

Brrr -15C members.

 

[Front Ranger]

I actually remember this game. We had about an inch of snow in Silverton a couple days before Thanksgiving and several nights with lows in the teens. 

 

I remember our family driving down from Tacoma (where we had a skiff of snow) down to Florence, OR for Thanksgiving and seeing a decent amount of snow in the Coast Range. Icy puddles on the beach for a couple days.

[Phil]

I know hoping for a snowy winter is all the rage, and for good reason, but I am personally hoping we can pull out at least one good windstorm this winter.

 

I feel like we haven't had a solid windstorm since 2006. And no, I'm not talking the usual "coast and NW interior get 50 mph winds" garden variety storm we get here. I'm talking a region-wide, 60 mph+ windstorm.

I'll trade you a windstorm for a blizzard and cold pattern in December. Deal?

 

These last several winters have been just insanely windy around these parts. Last February, we literally had to use f**king earplugs to sleep at night (on at least four occasions) because winds were rocking people's cars so violently their alarms were going off.

 

I often wake up at 5AM for work. I desperately need my beauty sleep, man.

[Front Ranger]

I know hoping for a snowy winter is all the rage, and for good reason, but I am personally hoping we can pull out at least one good windstorm this winter.

 

I feel like we haven't had a solid windstorm since 2006. And no, I'm not talking the usual "coast and NW interior get 50 mph winds" garden variety storm we get here. I'm talking a region-wide, 60 mph+ windstorm. If we could get one of those and then some solid snow bouts, I would be a happy camper. Get on it Mother Nature!

 

So if you could have a redux of 2006-07 or 1990-91, which would you choose?

[TT-SEA]

I'll trade you a windstorm for a blizzard and cold pattern in December. Deal?

 

These last several winters have been just insanely windy around these parts. Last February, we literally had to use f**king earplugs to sleep at night (on at least four occasions) because winds were rocking people's cars so violently their alarms were going off.

 

I often wake up at 5AM for work. I desperately need my beauty sleep, man.

 

I don't find windstorms interesting... just annoying.   And they make a mess.  

[stuffradio]

I don't find windstorms interesting... just annoying.   And they make a mess.  

Stanley Park doesn't like the 2006 windstorm, they are also destructive (potentially).

[Front Ranger]

Definitely feeling some 70+ highs in the Willamette Valley today.

[TT-SEA]

Primed for retrogression next week on the 12Z GFS...

 

[Geos]

Low of 41 this morning with clear skies. Lot of dew this morning. Looking to be a great mid Autumn day. 

[Phil]

I don't find windstorms interesting... just annoying. And they make a mess.

Yeah, I guess I'm conflicted. I usually make a bunch of money after violent windstorms, since we do tree work, and I love the dynamics and thrill involved.

 

However, I hate them when they occur overnight (during sleeping hours), and that's almost always when they occur here, since the pressure surges responsible for the winds will usually ride down the lee of the Appalachians after the loss of daytime heating. It takes a very powerful cyclone to push a pressure surge down the mountains during the daytime here. Hasn't happened since February 2011.

[Deweydog]

Definitely feeling some 70+ highs in the Willamette Valley today.

Should be a few 75's in there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some snow coming up in Denver. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Should be a few 75's in there.

 

Hopefully some 80s too. 

[Kayla]

Long range 12z GFS is definitely continuing the cold retrogression theme in November week 1.

[Front Ranger]

Should be a few 75's in there.

 

Probably 71-73 around parts of Portland metro.