October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

I had to turn on my heat today for the 2nd time this fall.

We finally snapped earlier this week too.

[Front Ranger]

I question whether it has the 500mb progression right anyways.   Might be a moot point if everything moves faster as usual.  

 

Yeah, hard to say...the general trend today by the models was towards a ridgier solution in that time frame, but 6-7 days away has proven to be challenging for the models as of late.

[snow_wizard]

I like how the 0z is trying to keep the heights up over the NE Pacific early next week.  Less wet and more chilly.

[snow_wizard]

Earliest 30's at PDX since 1990.

 

#uhi

 

Now that is impressive!

[snow_wizard]

My average low for the month to date is 40.7.  That is pretty impressive for the first 1/3 of October.  The average max should tank nicely over the next several days.

[ShawniganLake]

My average low for the month to date is 40.7. That is pretty impressive for the first 1/3 of October. The average max should tank nicely over the next several days.

I'm at 39.3. Would be nice to see at least one clear night this week and a legitimate freeze.

[snow_wizard]

Nice little cold snap later in the month on the 0z.  528 thickness, 850s drop to -4, and then a 1040mb surface high moves in right on top of us.  That would be solidly nippy.  Probably a day or two with highs in the upper 40s and lows sneaking down into the upper 20s / low 30s in some places.  It's worth noting the control model on the GFS ensemble has been consistently showing 850s dropping to -4 or -5 later in the month as well.

[snow_wizard]

I'm at 39.3. Would be nice to see at least one clear night this week and a legitimate freeze.

 

I'm hoping for that too.  Friday night could be the one to watch.

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

[wx_statman]

To highlight how dead the off-equator WPAC forcing is right now, there have been zero named WPAC storms since 9/18. That is the first time in recorded history that no WPAC tropical cyclones have occurred between 9/19 and 10/9.

 

And, unsurprising, the western US has been locked in a cool/troughy pattern during the aforementioned period. It's not a coincidence.

 

What about the record heat in late September? It's never so simple. 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=261087

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting once we get into fall how noticeably cooler it is up here during the day. Warmest high of the month so far only 61. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6th low in the 30s this month. Only had 4 sub 40 lows last October...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 31 yesterday at EUG. Their 2nd sub freezing low of the month. I wonder the last time EUG had two freezes before October 10th. 

[Kayla]

Low of 31 yesterday at EUG. Their 2nd sub freezing low of the month. I wonder the last time EUG had two freezes before October 10th. 

 

2012 had lows of 32 on the 5th and 6th. Technically this month they've only seen one "sub freezing" low FWIW.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm at 39.3. Would be nice to see at least one clear night this week and a legitimate freeze.

 

The coldest this location has got so far this month is 43.5F with the average low sitting at 46.4F. Places at the bottom of the hill have been a bit cooler.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 6z shows over 9" of rain in Victoria, mostly next week. The ECMWF also seems to be hinting at a major rain next week. The continuation of our drought is looking precarious   

[stuffradio]

The 6z shows over 9" of rain in Victoria, mostly next week. The ECMWF also seems to be hinting at a major rain next week. The continuation of our drought is looking precarious 

Almost a foot for me.

[Kayla]

The Euro weeklies are looking pretty torchy in the West after the 21st through at least mid November. I suppose it's not that surprising considering that we'll have been in a quasi-stationary trough for nearly 6 weeks by the 21st.

[Guest happ]

The Euro weeklies are looking pretty torchy in the West after the 21st through at least mid November. I suppose it's not that surprising considering that we'll have been in a quasi-stationary trough for nearly 6 weeks by the 21st.

 

That's disastrous for California.  

[Kayla]

That's disastrous for California.  

 

Well torchy in the NW doesn't necessarily mean high and dry for California. At least NorCal looks to get some decent precip with the southern jet come later this month into early November according to the weeklies.

[DareDuck]

6th low in the 30s this month. Only had 4 sub 40 lows last October...

45 was the low here. Winds kept the temperature up. All other lows this month had been in the 30s.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty ridiculous series of troughs on the 12z...

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Still a decent chance that the 6th will wind up being Portland's last 70 degree day, and September 28 the last 75+ day. Both a little earlier than average.

[wx_statman]

2012 had lows of 32 on the 5th and 6th. Technically this month they've only seen one "sub freezing" low FWIW.

 

What's crazy is that after those early freezes, they went until Dec 15th without falling to 31. 

 

Yesterday's 31 is also the earliest there since 10/6/2009, fwiw. 

[stuffradio]

Pouring rain here, just over .05" of rain from the past 10ish minutes.

[wx_statman]

Looking back in history, 1974 had 2012 beat for weirdness in Eugene. Saw a freeze on Oct. 7th, but then didn't fall to 31 until Dec. 30th (the current benchmark). 

 

This followed a ridiculously torchy September where EUG averaged an 85.1 maximum, more than 2 degrees above second place for the month. This included an 8-day streak of 90 degree heat from 9/18-9/25. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like nice and warm weather is possible for the end of the month.

[ShawniganLake]

Pouring rain here, just over .05" of rain from the past 10ish minutes.

It is a pretty narrow band of rain this morning. Had a bit of drizzle earlier but now it's sunny 53F and breezy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah looks like Astoria picked up 0.11" of rain and they are already done. 

[Jesse]

The Euro weeklies are looking pretty torchy in the West after the 21st through at least mid November. I suppose it's not that surprising considering that we'll have been in a quasi-stationary trough for nearly 6 weeks by the 21st.

Not sure if I buy it. Weren't we talking about them looking torchy for much of October just a few weeks ago?

[Front Ranger]

2012 had lows of 32 on the 5th and 6th. Technically this month they've only seen one "sub freezing" low FWIW.

 

2012 was very impressive at OLM. Three straight record lows of 29, 28, 28 from the 4th to the 6th. No other year has had three straight sub-30 lows that early.

[BLI snowman]

Looking back in history, 1974 had 2012 beat for weirdness in Eugene. Saw a freeze on Oct. 7th, but then didn't fall to 31 until Dec. 30th (the current benchmark). 

 

This followed a ridiculously torchy September where EUG averaged an 85.1 maximum, more than 2 degrees above second place for the month. This included an 8-day streak of 90 degree heat from 9/18-9/25. 

 

That's the price we often pay for a cool midsummer like that.

[wx_statman]

That's the price we often pay for a cool midsummer like that.

Wavelength changes FTW.

[GobBluth]

Score

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/test8.gif

[WeatherMonster]

Rain is on the way.

[Phil]

What about the record heat in late September? It's never so simple.

Ain't that the truth. Especially on the higher frequency scale you're referencing. Not to mention seasonal transitions.

[Deweydog]

Clouds are on the move.

[Phil]

The Euro weeklies are looking pretty torchy in the West after the 21st through at least mid November. I suppose it's not that surprising considering that we'll have been in a quasi-stationary trough for nearly 6 weeks by the 21st.

Makes sense. There's a very coherent MJO signal right now so it makes the progression clearer IMO.

 

Going zonal first, strorm train/GOA pinwheel, then a period of ridging sometime in November as the vortex retrogrades and/or bifurcates. I'm not sure exactly when in November the ridging will happen but probably will be either the early or middle portion of the month, IMO.