October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[snow_wizard]

Indeed. I think the regime has finally, actually shifted.

 

PDO index the past couple months, while still barely positive, was the lowest since Nov/Dec 2013. 

 

The current regime should easily take the PDO into minus territory.

[WeatherMonster]

Can't wait for some monster snow!

[wx_statman]

Indeed. I think the regime has finally, actually shifted.

 

PDO index the past couple months, while still barely positive, was the lowest since Nov/Dec 2013. 

 

It definitely feels like something snapped around December of last year. We've been seeing things we haven't seen in decades. Cold January, no 70 degree warmth until May, 105 in August, 98 in September. Not acting like what we've gotten used to over the past two or three decades.

[Front Ranger]

The current regime should easily take the PDO into minus territory.

 

Yeah, I'll be shocked if we're not there by the time October's number comes out. Been a pretty insane run on the plus side.

[BLI snowman]

2017 has a chance to finish with a cool anomaly, depending on how we withstand the November torchfest.

[Front Ranger]

It definitely feels like something snapped around December of last year. We've been seeing things we haven't seen in decades. Cold January, no 70 degree warmth until May, 105 in August, 98 in September. Not acting like what we've gotten used to over the past two or three decades.

 

Yeah, I think the reversal started last winter, but there were still some vestiges of the past few years during the warm season: record heat in May/June, very warm/dry summer, +PDO continuing (though weaker).

 

Now that we're out of the warm season, I think the new system state has really taken hold and strengthened. 

[Front Ranger]

 

It did not end well for him.

[snow_wizard]

Me smells lotsa Arctic blasts!

 

This type of trough in a cold ENSO October is one of the best signs there is for a winter featuring Arctic blasts.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It did not end well for him.

 

But winter did come in the end. Our PDO could learn a thing or two from whatever index they cycle on.

[Phil]

Indeed. I think the regime has finally, actually shifted.

 

PDO index the past couple months, while still barely positive, was the lowest since Nov/Dec 2013.

I definitely agree, though I'd replace "shifted" with "shifting".

[wx_statman]

It did not end well for him.

 

He didn't need to worry about winter, turns out.

[Front Ranger]

He didn't need to worry about winter, turns out.

 

The great forecasters all die young.

[snow_wizard]

This trough is verifying very nicely.  Actually a bit sharper and deeper than some earlier runs had shown.  Looking downright chilly through Saturday.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF continues to trend slowly cooler for the remainder of the week.  925mb temps drop to +1 over the central and north Puget Sound Thursday night  / Friday morning with highs possibly in the upper 40s to low 50s.  Friday night looks good for widespread frost.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the sun has finally gone very inactive after an unexpected uptick the past few weeks.  4 consecutive spotless days and the AP index at a ridiculously low reading of 1.

[Deweydog]

Meanwhile the sun has finally gone very inactive after an unexpected uptick the past few weeks. 4 consecutive spotless days and the AP index at a ridiculously low reading of 1.

I doubt it'll have the energy to rise tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

I doubt it'll have the energy to rise tomorrow.

 

I'm not sure how to respond to this.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pleasantly surprised to see clear skies tonight.  Maybe the night will be more than expected this week.  Already down to 43 here.

[Phil]

Meanwhile the sun has finally gone very inactive after an unexpected uptick the past few weeks. 4 consecutive spotless days and the AP index at a ridiculously low reading of 1.

True, but last month's solar flare activity pushed the AP index to its highest levels in over a decade. It's clearly affected ozone/strat temps, too, but hopefully we can recover in time.

 

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-planetary-a-index.gif

[TT-SEA]

I am just glad to see the 00Z ECMWF showing a totally dry weekend between the rainy periods.

[Phil]

The period of weak solar wind from 2006-2012 was a large contributor to the -PDO/-PNA observed during that timeframe.

 

The low-frequency tropical system state (independent of solar) was actually less favorable for western troughing/-PNA back then compared to now, so if we could reproduce that period of weak solar winds, it would probably produce better results this time.

[Phil]

Man, that's a supermassive +SIOD. Easy to see where convection will want to establish.

 

[Deweydog]

I'm not sure how to respond to this.

Science, my man. It's gonna get mighty cold.

[WeatherMonster]

Monster Rein

[stuffradio]

I had thunder showers over night, about .20" of rain since midnight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.30" of rain yesterday. 0.73" for the month so far. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It would be nice to see more of this pattern this winter:

 

[crf450ish]

It would be nice to see more of this pattern this winter:

 

We will

[ShawniganLake]

Looking across the country at some of the other regions, seems like everyone is trying to line things up for a big winter in their region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whet

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whet

 

 

Holy Mackerel! 

 

[Timmy]

I had wet snow flakes mixed in with a heavy shower this morning. 38f. Another report of snow mixed in near vernonia by a friend on fb. Pretty impressive!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had wet snow flakes mixed in with a heavy shower this morning. 38f. Another report of snow mixed in near vernonia by a friend on fb. Pretty impressive!

 

Those were some pretty heavy showers. I believe it. 

[Jesse]

I had wet snow flakes mixed in with a heavy shower this morning. 38f. Another report of snow mixed in near vernonia by a friend on fb. Pretty impressive!

This is a chilly airmass. I belieb it.

[Jesse]

Could see some hail and thundershowers in spots this afternoon as the cold pool moves overhead.

 

Had some 43 degree moderate rain this morning. Chilly for this early.

[ShawniganLake]

Heavy hail in parts of greater Vancouver this morning

[Jesse]

Heavy hail in parts of greater Vancouver this morning

 

 

Wow.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Heavy hail in parts of greater Vancouver this morning

IMG_1009.JPG

 

Just saw a special marine warning for the waters just west of Birch Bay/Ferndale for a possible waterspout about 10 minutes ago.  It looks like it has since dropped.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ensembles are cooler...

[stuffradio]

Today the volcano Shiveluch in Russia erupted.