November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

At least your roses are happy!

 

Still blooming...

 

[Phil]

Gawd, what a gorgeous pattern for climate weenies (like me).

 

We're gonna be shedding lots of heat over the next month. Can't wait to see the CERES radiation data for November (should already be a change in the energy budget).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2AD89C39-7DBE-4E22-A38C-F012A1C91F42_zpsviidkirt.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FE1D18F2-1010-4A69-BD9E-A01703D3A856_zpsqe0jlfkb.png

[stuffradio]

Lol. I don't want to jinx it.

 

If I do bust, though, I'm fair game for anything and everything.

Great, you can come weed my Garlic this Spring!

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes... many, many summers will be ruined.    

 

I know my unhappiness is what drives you though.  

 

Winter of 63-64 was nothing special here. A lot of wet snow in January and that is about it. 7" on one day with a 36/34 spread. Must have been absolute slop. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've noticed that a Tim's location is much milder than mine about 80% of the time. But he gets cold when it counts!

[Phil]

Winter of 63-64 was nothing special here. A lot of wet snow in January and that is about it. 7" on one day with a 36/34 spread. Must have been absolute slop.

What about the Agung-influenced winter of 1964/65? The stratospheric photochemical-thermodynamic response was well underway by then.

 

Of course, the QBO matters when it comes to the effect(s) of SO^2 on the tropics, and it was in the opposite sign in 1964/65 compared to next winter (2018/19).

[TT-SEA]

I've noticed that a Tim's location is much milder than mine about 80% of the time. But he gets cold when it counts!

 

Yeah... I have noticed that as well.   

[snow_wizard]

Dude give it a rest.

 

Since when is pointing out what the models show wrong?  Your contributions to this forum are worthless in my estimation.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS unquestionably shows the offshore block progressing eastward much more slowly than previous runs.  Much longer opportunity for cold to become established.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS Monthlies are not looking great for December. 

[snow_wizard]

I've noticed that a Tim's location is much milder than mine about 80% of the time. But he gets cold when it counts!

 

I highly doubt it's 80% of the time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What about the Agung-influenced winter of 1964/65? The stratospheric photochemical-thermodynamic response was well underway by then.

 

Of course, the QBO matters when it comes to the effect(s) of SO^2 on the tropics, and it was in the opposite sign in 1964/65 compared to next winter (2018/19).

Well the December 64' arctic blast is an all timer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I highly doubt it's 80% of the time.

 

His lows have been warmer than some of my highs recently. 

[snow_wizard]

His lows have been warmer than some of my highs recently. 

 

In this type of situation he is certainly warmer than you much of the time, but with a number of other common patterns that wouldn't be the case.  I will say, though, that he is often warmer than my area too in certain cases.

[snow_wizard]

CFS Monthlies are not looking great for December. 

 

There could be a lot of fake cold, but from a 500mb perspective there is plenty of evidence it won't be great.  I think there is still a lot of uncertainty for late month though.  The little cold snap early in the month could be decent also.

[Jesse]

In this type of situation he is certainly warmer than you much of the time, but with a number of other common patterns that wouldn't be the case. I will say, though, that he is often warmer than my area too in certain cases.

Fake warmth?

[TT-SEA]

Nice break in the action for a couple hours.   I can also report that our cottonwoods are finally bare!  

 

[TT-SEA]

In this type of situation he is certainly warmer than you much of the time, but with a number of other common patterns that wouldn't be the case.  I will say, though, that he is often warmer than my area too in certain cases.

 

You area will be colder in most cases at night in radiational cooling situations and during inversions obviously.

 

Otherwise we are probably similar in most cases.    Neither of us has seen a temp below 32 yet this fall.  

[TT-SEA]

His lows have been warmer than some of my highs recently. 

 

We have had more clouds and mixing up here this month.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

Another warm one here...

[luvssnow_spokane]

There could be a lot of fake cold, but from a 500mb perspective there is plenty of evidence it won't be great. I think there is still a lot of uncertainty for late month though. The little cold snap early in the month could be decent also.

Fake cold = “yawn”

[Jbolin]

Fake cold = “yawn”

Living in the "swamp" = Yawn!

[Jesse]

If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity.

 

Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"?

1964 was PDX’s coldest year on record overall. I’d like to order a repeat.

[MossMan]

Well I had a 2hr break of the rain...it’s now back with a vengeance. Windy as well.

[Jesse]

“Fake cold” would be pretty nice at this point. Sunshine, frosty mornings, east wind. I don’t see how being endlessly lashed with warm rainstorms is superior.

[Jesse]

Strong cold front appears to be approaching the Portland area.

[MossMan]

Now heavy rain with high winds from the west!

[Deweydog]

I want snow!

 

Anyone with me???

[TT-SEA]

Now heavy rain with high winds from the west!

 

Still sunny here... but its coming!    We got out for a nice walk in the warm sunshine during the break.   Felt like a different day than the one we woke up to here.   Nice to feel the sun for awhile.  

[MossMan]

Still sunny here... but its coming! We got out for a nice walk in the warm sunshine during the break. Felt like a different day than the one we woke up to here. Nice to feel the sun for awhile.

I had just finished blowing off the driveway since it was dead calm and dry...then came the massive rain and west wind....that erased all of my work.

[MossMan]

I want snow!

 

Anyone with me???

Yes.

[MossMan]

If it was about 15 degrees cooler we would be in the middle of a massive blizzard right now.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty sharp cold front coming through.  My temp has dropped 7 degrees with strong west winds.

[TT-SEA]

Here comes the wind... leaves blowing off the trees and going straight up in the air now.   

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Very impressive cold front moved in!! Dropped 15 degrees in like 30min with heavy wind and rain. Love it!!

[snow_wizard]

Very impressive cold front moved in!! Dropped 15 degrees in like 30min with heavy wind and rain. Love it!!

 

Yup...so much for the warm day!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I want snow!

 

Anyone with me???

I vote that as the stupidest question of the year!

[Gradient Keeper]

The 12z GFS unquestionably shows the offshore block progressing eastward much more slowly than previous runs.  Much longer opportunity for cold to become established.

12z ECMWF also with a much stronger block too.

[Gradient Keeper]

“Fake cold” would be pretty nice at this point. Sunshine, frosty mornings, east wind. I don’t see how being endlessly lashed with warm rainstorms is superior.

The way things are looking now we could be moving into a classic fake cold pattern.