November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 1.73" of rain here on Thanksgiving. 

 

11.16" on the month. So November will officially be above average. 

[WeatherArchive]

Wanted to also recognize how much SW and Phil put into their research. Their analysis feels really sound and well thought-out. Their prognostications for the coming weeks are great to read.

I agree. It just seems like it's so dang warm out there.  Though today and yesterday didn't quite get as warm as predicted.  Down to 37F now where the predicted low wasn't anything below 40F.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 35 here this morning with some frost on the deck. Yesterday was 46/35

 

Down to 45 here... looks like it might be a nice sunrise though.    Before the day goes down hill again.   

 

I see BLI is at 51 this morning.  

[Jesse]

Down to 45 here... looks like it might be a nice sunrise though. Before the day goes down hill again.

 

I see BLI is at 51 this morning.

25 in Burns, Oregon this morning.

 

21 in Baker City.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Gradient Keeper]

06z — meh!

00z EPS ---- meh also

Too progressive

 

12z GFS running now! Excitement for stellar mediocrity is building

 

C'mon fake cold!

[Deweydog]

25 in Burns, Oregon this morning.

 

21 in Baker City.

Cool cucumbers over there!

[Jesse]

Cool cucumbers over there!

Just a TTTemp update!

[Gradient Keeper]

Michael Ventrice      2 hours ago

 

CFSv2 has been locked onto a (k=1) displacement of the stratospheric Polar Vortex towards Eurasia since early November. Verification period is Mid-December so this is still just a forecast, however. But looks like the idea is gaining momentum.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still stuck at 36!

[TT-SEA]

Michael Ventrice      2 hours ago

 

CFSv2 has been locked onto a (k=1) displacement of the stratospheric Polar Vortex towards Eurasia since early November. Verification period is Mid-December so this is still just a forecast, however. But looks like the idea is gaining momentum.

 

 

 

Well... that sucks.   

 

Wrong side of the planet.  

[Gradient Keeper]

44.4 near west Gresham, very breezy with increasing east wind

[HighlandExperience]

Well... that sucks.

 

Wrong side of the planet.

Goodbye winter

[Gradient Keeper]

Eh, it's the CFS.... right

 

Cautiously optimistic!

[WeatherArchive]

Does this morning seem chillier then predicted? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost all of Phil's posts contradict the previous one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z GEM was just that.

[Deweydog]

Jim's gonna get mad at you guys...

[MossMan]

Currently 43 and cloudy after a spectacular sunrise.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS through day 8 not terrible I guess. Chilly NW flow at times and mountain snows. Definitely a progressive pattern.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh wow. Coolish transitory trough next weekend...Snoozzzeee

[Gradient Keeper]

UGLY after day 8. Don't look.

 

P.S. go ahead and look, but don't.

[Jesse]

Does this morning seem chillier then predicted?

In Oregon/SW Wa at least.

 

Hit 36 here.

[Gradient Keeper]

UGLY after day 8. Don't look.

 

P.S. go ahead and look, but don't.

Maybe a sneak peek or subtle glance, but no, don't. Maybe close your eyes, then blink 2 to 3 times and pretend you never saw anything. YES

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BARF

[Gradient Keeper]

UGLY after day 8. Don't look.

 

P.S. go ahead and look, but don't.

 

 

Maybe a sneak peek or subtle glance, but no, don't. Maybe close your eyes, then blink 2 to 3 times and pretend you never saw anything. YES

Perhaps constructing a shoe box with a hole cut in it, paper, aluminum foil, yeah similar to viewing the eclipse as a child, then peer at your monitor/screen/phone, but not too extensively. That might work. That may alleviate how nauseous you'll become.

[MossMan]

Was the first half of Dec. 1949 very dull as well...with forum weather weenies ready to call winter cancel on their CB radios?

[Gradient Keeper]

Was the first half of Dec. 1949 very dull as well...with forum weather weenies ready to call winter cancel on their CB radios?

Monthly history for December 1949

 

Portland

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airportfrompws/KPDX/1949/12/10/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

Seattle

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airportfrompws/KSEA/1949/12/10/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

[Phil]

Well... that sucks.

 

Wrong side of the planet.

Short term pain, long term gain.

[Phil]

Almost all of Phil's posts contradict the previous one.

No, they don't. Just try to be patient.

[Gradient Keeper]

No, they don't. Just try to be patient.

This seems to if anything give a lot of weight to your prediction of a loaded back half of Winter 3rd week of December onward perhaps.

[Jesse]

Perhaps constructing a shoe box with a hole cut in it, paper, aluminum foil, yeah similar to viewing the eclipse as a child, then peer at your monitor/screen/phone, but not too extensively. That might work. That may alleviate how nauseous you'll become.

The long range 12z isn’t that bad. Some ridging on the backside of a coolish trough, probably cool temps at the surface.

[Gradient Keeper]

The long range 12z isn’t that bad. Some ridging on the backside of a coolish trough, probably cool temps at the surface.

Yeah, I was just getting carried away with my nonsensical nonsense, and then I had to try to outdo myself, and then again.

 

12z ECMWF is running

[Gradient Keeper]

It's only November 25th folks. Any talk about a winter cancel, or sticking a fork in Winter is unnecessary. Put the forks away.

 

January 5, 2016 · East Portland

 

Everyone is always sticking a fork in Winter(often prematurely), but what about a spoon? Do we have to use real stainless steel eating utensils, or just cheap plastic stuff we'd find at Safeway? Could someone hypothetically stick a spoon in Winter? Would this be possible? Would that lessen the blow to Winter itself? The Fork would be a direct hit deep into the heart of Winter at several points(or more depending on how many times the fork is used itself) into the 500mb pattern, surface, and teleconnections likely killing further chances, but a spoon can tend to slide a little off to the side when inserting it leaving room for error and thus renewed chances of Winter Weather for awhile. A butter knife would only temporary poke holes in it if you were to stab directly downward at Winter leaving a lot of variability. A spatula would just be silly might flatten ridging down for a bit. A whisk? That is getting carried away now. Based on this I might stick a spoon in Winter by day 10 if the ECMWF is right with its butt ugly pattern. MAYBE even a spoon/fork combo, more heavily leaning towards the spoon though because this El Nino has been wacky and wonky as hell.

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

It's only November 25th folks. Any talk about a winter cancel, or sticking a fork in Winter is unnecessary. Put the forks away.

 

January 5, 2016 · East Portland

 

Everyone is always sticking a fork in Winter(often prematurely), but what about a spoon? Do we have to use real stainless steel eating utensils, or just cheap plastic stuff we'd find at Safeway? Could someone hypothetically stick a spoon in Winter? Would this be possible? Would that lessen the blow to Winter itself? The Fork would be a direct hit deep into the heart of Winter at several points(or more depending on how many times the fork is used itself) into the 500mb pattern, surface, and teleconnections likely killing further chances, but a spoon can tend to slide a little off to the side when inserting it leaving room for error and thus renewed chances of Winter Weather for awhile. A butter knife would only temporary poke holes in it if you were to stab directly downward at Winter leaving a lot of variability. A spatula would just be silly might flatten ridging down for a bit. A whisk? That is getting carried away now. Based on this I might stick a spoon in Winter by day 10 if the ECMWF is right with its butt ugly pattern. MAYBE even a spoon/fork combo, more heavily leaning towards the spoon though because this El Nino has been wacky and wonky as hell.

 

Are some chop sticks okay?  Honestly, my preference would be to eat winter with a spoon but that is me and I am far from stable.

[Gradient Keeper]

Are some chop sticks okay?  Honestly, my preference would be to eat winter with a spoon but that is me and I am far from stable.

Hmmm, I never mulled over the idea of chop sticks. I think absolutely yes why not.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well Phil's prediction of us being anxious over the first half of December being lousy looks to be spot on.

[Jesse]

37 at PDX this morning!

[Gradient Keeper]

37 at PDX this morning!

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Front Ranger]

In terms of waiting for things to really get good, I think a best case scenario is mid December. But more likely, end of December/early January. Worst case? Leading analog 1989 didn't get good until February. For some places, that month was amazing. OLM saw 27" of snow in Feb 1990.

 

But like I said, waiting that long is probably worst case scenario.