November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS! (Beat Dewey to it)

[Deweydog]

00z GFS! (Beat Dewey to it)

I make no model reference, only time. I happen to think it's something worth saving. Perhaps in a bottle or some kind of facsimile.

[Gradient Keeper]

I make no model reference, only time. I happen to think it's something worth saving. Perhaps in a bottle or some kind of facsimile.

That's true, and I was going to merely type "00z!" but I didn't want to rip you off too much. I'm not sure if you've copyrighted that or not.

 

[umadbro]

I hate the nice warm sunshine in the middle of a rainy stretch. Screw you sun ! You have no place in November!

[High Desert Mat!]

Reality check...the winter of 1861-62 didn't have any cold whatsoever until mid December. Same is true for many great winters.

Reality check, you know that was 155 years ago right?

 

Here's another reality check, if you have to go that far back its most likely a gut check to the person representing it. I hope you're right but to go that far back is silly.

[TT-SEA]

Reality check, you know that was 155 years ago right?

 

Here's another reality check, if you have to go that far back its most likely a gut check to the person representing it. I hope you're right but to go that far back is silly.

It was also true in 2008.

[Bryant]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS through day 10.  Progressive. I do see a modest cold pool developing and increasing east winds around day 5. After day 8 that ridge is flattened like a pancake. Fairly classic Nina pattern though and good replenishment of mt. snow of which a decent amount has melted off recently.

 

00z CMC much better. Very large/strong block offshore which eventually is nudged closer to us. Some modified arctic air or colder continental air overtakes the area days 7-9. 500mb pattern is quite close to a much colder blast if we can slow down the overall progression.

[Deweydog]

Down to 45 at PDX...

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's the 00z CMC 500mb, Day 7, Day 9

 

You can see how good this run was

 

 

Day 7

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017112500/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Day 9

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017112500/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Down to 45 at PDX...

Would you enjoy torches less if I enjoyed them more?

[Deweydog]

Would you enjoy torches less if I enjoyed them more?

It's just weather. Chill out and enjoy the heat. It'll make you that much better at heating up to enjoy the chill.

[snow_wizard]

Reality check, you know that was 155 years ago right?

 

Here's another reality check, if you have to go that far back its most likely a gut check to the person representing it. I hope you're right but to go that far back is silly.

 

Come on dude!  Do you really think I'm that dumb.  I chose that winter because it was the very coldest one on record and it didn't have jack sheit until mid December.  One of the better winters of the 20th century was 1936-37 and it didn't have jack sheit until very late December.

 

People are freaking out because we have grown accustomed to front loaded winters so if it doesn't get cold early people think it's over.  In reality mid loaded winters used to be much more common and many of those are terrible early.  As I've stated many times this winter was locked in to be great in October.  It's coming.

 

More recent winters that sucked until late December and even into January and turned out good were 1995-96 and 2003-04.  For people to be freaking out in November is utterly absurd.

[Jesse]

It's just weather. Chill out and enjoy the heat. It'll make you that much better at heating up to enjoy the chill.

Cool as a cumcumber here. Upcoming finals have been stressing me out more than anything.

[Deweydog]

Cool as a cumcumber here. Upcoming finals have been stressing me out more than anything.

Don't suck up all the cool! We may need it if things aren't going so well a couple months from now! LOL!

[Jesse]

Don't suck up all the cool! We may need it if things aren't going so well a couple months from now! LOL!

-Anthony

[Deweydog]

Come on dude! Do you really think I'm that dumb. I chose that winter because it was the very coldest one on record and it didn't have jack sheit until mid December. One of the better winters of the 20th century was 1936-37 and it didn't have jack sheit until very late December.

 

People are freaking out because we have grown accustomed to front loaded winters so if it doesn't get cold early people think it's over. In reality mid loaded winters used to be much more common and many of those are terrible early. As I've stated many times this winter was locked in to be great in October. It's coming.

 

More recent winters that sucked until late December and even into January and turned out good were 1995-96 and 2003-04. For people to be freaking out in November is utterly absurd.

This is about as much of a freak out as I've seen here in a while.

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles are improved.

[Phil]

Clown range 00z GEFS has a beautiful -NAM. Check out all the upward motion in the tropics (as depicted by the low surface pressures).

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/38708FDB-0619-4CC2-8E03-E82264CC848B_zpsbhzeespe.png

 

Another view:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FC732F58-950B-4F42-946A-691EF9560423_zps5gy0a0eh.png

An epic heat release, verbatim.

[umadbro]

Its been an entertaining week for me here. 3 people are preaching cold cold cold coming up with a half a map betweem the 3 of them. Dewey is still,funny as hell, and Jesse keeps trying the whole PC thing while being as polite as possible.

 

The entertainment level here is at a 10. Good work folks!

[Jesse]

Its been an entertaining week for me here. 3 people are preaching cold cold cold coming up with a half a map betweem the 3 of them. Dewey is still,funny as hell, and Jesse keeps trying the whole PC thing while being as polite as possible.

 

The entertainment level here is at a 10. Good work folks!

When are you just gonna nut up and ask me out?

[Deweydog]

When are you just gonna nut up and ask me out?

I can see you two meeting in the middle of a frozen Columbia River in MLK Day '18 and reliving the penultimate scene from Bruno.

[Jesse]

I can see you two meeting in the middle of a frozen Columbia River in MLK Day '18 and reliving the penultimate scene from Bruno.

 

Beats getting delivered lotion in a basket at the bottom of a hole in a Sherwood basement. That's sort of what I was picturing.

[umadbro]

When are you just gonna nut up and ask me out?

"Nut up" why would you assume my gender/sexuality/place/race or anything?

[snow_wizard]

This is about as much of a freak out as I've seen here in a while.

 

I just don't like it when people accuse me of doing shoddy work.

[snow_wizard]

Clown range 00z GEFS has a beautiful -NAM. Check out all the upward motion in the tropics (as depicted by the low surface pressures).

 

 

Another view:

 

An epic heat release, verbatim.

 

Indeed.  I've never seen the whole Arctic so torched before.

 

Do you think this means a round global cooling is coming like what we saw after the 1998 Nino?

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS ensembles are improved.

 

No doubt.  I certainly want to see an early December cold snap if we're going to be waiting until January for the good stuff.

[Jesse]

No doubt. I certainly do want to see an early December cold snap if we're going to be waiting until January for the good stuff.

I can picture December being a pretty mixed bag. Near average overall but extended dry spells could make for some decent low level cold episodes.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is better than the GFS, but not as good as the GEM.

[snow_wizard]

I can picture December being a pretty mixed bag. Near average overall but extended dry spells could make for some decent low level cold episodes.

 

Yeah....the GFS was looking good for a cold fog episode.

[Deweydog]

I just don't like it when people accuse me of doing shoddy work.

No offense, but you have absolutely no bearing on how this winter will turn out. And no work on your part makes anything a lock.

[Jesse]

No offense, but you have absolutely no bearing on how this winter will turn out. And no work on your part makes anything a lock.

I think you are misunderstanding him. High Desert Mat was questioning/mocking his methodology, which is obviously what he has a problem with. I don’t think he’s saying that he is actually working to make this winter good. That would be sort of crazy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38 and chilly here. Had a good smoke after putting the lights up.

[Jesse]

38 and chilly here. Had a good smoke after putting the lights up.

 

Dreaming of a green Christmas?

[Jbolin]

I just don't like it when people accuse me of doing shoddy work.

You don't do "shoddy" work, if anything you are one of the few who take the time to thoroughly research your data and information, anything less would be a disservice to an actual population base let alone an online weather discussion forum. 

 

I know I can't be the only one who exudes this sentiment

[Phil]

Indeed. I've never seen the whole Arctic so torched before.

 

Do you think this means a round global cooling is coming like what we saw after the 1998 Nino?

Yes, this is the same process (when played out over a prolonged period of time) that produced the global cooling from the 1940s through the 1970s. It was the trigger for the LIA as well. All periods of global cooling (during the Holocene) have featured a negative annular mode.

 

The annular modes (NAM/AO, SAM/AAO) are essentially giant overturning circulations. The negative annular mode is defined by a blocking high/sinking air at the pole(s), and rising air (enhanced convection) in the tropics.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Dreaming of a green Christmas?

One of the many perks of being in the PNW (sorry Idaho)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wanted to also recognize how much SW and Phil put into their research. Their analysis feels really sound and well thought-out. Their prognostications for the coming weeks are great to read.

[The Swamp]

No offense, but you have absolutely no bearing on how this winter will turn out. And no work on your part makes anything a lock.

Thank you for saying this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 35 here this morning with some frost on the deck. Yesterday was 46/35