November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[stuffradio]

Totally cleared out here

Not cleared out here,  but it stopped raining.

[MossMan]

We have hit the 40’s!!! Down to 48 with moderate rain still.

[Jesse]

Careful. One more sports reference and your forecasting credentials go out the window.

That Jesse guy really grinds my gears! Grrrrrr!!!!

[Jesse]

Just took a walk between showers. It literally feels like a spring day out there.

 

Saw a few rainbows. A promise from Noah/Jesus of no more torches ever again after this one I am sure.

[stuffradio]

That Jesse guy really grinds my gears! Grrrrrr!!!!

Finally someone said it! I thought I was the only one.

[wx_statman]

Worth noting that RDM pulled off a 54 degree low yesterday. Latest in the season they've seen a low above 50 on record (a low of exactly 50 was recorded on 11/26/1950). 

[BLI snowman]

Worth noting that RDM pulled off a 54 degree low yesterday. Latest in the season they've seen a low above 50 on record (a low of exactly 50 was recorded on 11/26/1950). 

 

Historic arctic airmass in the East at that time.

 

No such occurrence with this one 

[wx_statman]

Historic arctic airmass in the East at that time.

 

No such occurrence with this one 

 

Yeah, no kidding. Pretty epic blizzard as well. 

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham is completely clearing out now...

 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, no kidding. Pretty epic blizzard as well. 

 

I always feel a little better about seeing extreme warmth here countered by something impressive on the other side of the spectrum elsewhere. When that doesn't happen, it usually spells trouble.

[Gradient Keeper]

Even though you're all a bunch of bu'holes  

 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Take time to reflect, to give thanks, and be grateful. If you are traveling tonight, tomorrow, or this weekend, please do so safely.

 

Enjoy your Turkey day. I'll be having Enchiladas.

[crf450ish]

 

Even though you're all a bunch of bu'holes  

 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Take time to reflect, to give thanks, and be grateful. If you are traveling tonight, tomorrow, or this weekend, please do so safely.

 

Enjoy your Turkey day. I'll be having Enchiladas.

 

Indeed! I am thankful for my first world problems lol. Could be worse...could be wishing for clean drinking water instead of lots of snow to play in....

[Farmboy]

No turkey here, either dj, don't feel bad.

[Jesse]

I always feel a little better about seeing extreme warmth here countered by something impressive on the other side of the spectrum elsewhere. When that doesn't happen, it usually spells trouble.

We had our cold winter for the decade last year. Gotta take what you can get in today’s climate.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Happy thanksgiving errbody

[Front Ranger]

Latest EPS continues to support cool troughing in early December, though the ridge is not amplified enough to deliver Arctic air. Gotta have that -EPO.

 

[Front Ranger]

Starting to get a December 2012 feel

 

 

-30c over Seattle!!!

 

 

Wrong year, buddy.

 

It was definitely 2012. I remember because of the apocalyptic movie of the same name. 

[Front Ranger]

The low of 58 at OLM yesterday was by far the warmest low they've seen this late. In fact, the next closest 58+ low was more than a month earlier, on 10/21/2003. Pretty incredible.

[Jesse]

Late December 1980 must have really spared northern areas. I think PDX had a LOW of 60 that Christmas.

[Guest El nina]

Late December 1980 must have really spared northern areas. I think PDX had a LOW of 60 that Christmas.

Did it snow though?

[Front Ranger]

Late December 1980 must have really spared northern areas. I think PDX had a LOW of 60 that Christmas.

 

OLM had a couple lows of 55 with that. By far the latest they've had lows that warm. Now the latest after yesterday.

[Jesse]

Did it snow though?

The most magical 60 degree snow you’ve ever seen.

[Jesse]

18z and ensembles weren’t too bad.

[Timmy Supercell]

No turkey here, either dj, don't feel bad.

 

Rosemary and garlic roasted chicken with country gravy on top, mashed potatoes on the side and some pumpkin pie for a dessert tonight. Usually we do ham and yams but not this time.

 

On a weather related note; so far a high of 63. Started sprinkling here just now.

[Guest El nina]

The most magical 60 degree snow you’ve ever seen.

That'd be awesome if it could snow at that temp.

[Phil]

It was definitely 2012. I remember because of the apocalyptic movie of the same name.

Can't be. I was in FL when I made that infamous post, and I never visited FL in 2012.

[Timmy Supercell]

That'd be awesome if it could snow at that temp.

 

It'd be awesome if winter thunderstorms are a solid reliable possibility east of the cascades. 

[Front Ranger]

Can't be. I was in FL when I made that infamous post, and I never visited FL in 2012.

 

It's definitely not worth arguing over...but I'm 100% sure it was 2012. There's a reason dewey, who also has a pretty good memory for these things, remembered 2012.

[ShawniganLake]

Can't be. I was in FL when I made that infamous post, and I never visited FL in 2012.

I feel like the -30 thing was December 2012.

 

There may have been a “2008 but snowier” call a few years later with an early January near miss.

[HighlandExperience]

Can't be. I was in FL when I made that infamous post, and I never visited FL in 2012.

 

What infamous post? =)

[Timmy Supercell]

What infamous post? =)

 

Through all the buzzes and hangovers he may have dreamed of it.

[Phil]

It's definitely not worth arguing over...but I'm 100% sure it was 2012. There's a reason dewey, who also has a pretty good memory for these things, remembered 2012.

I'll find the post. I could have sworn it was in 2014.

[TT-SEA]

I'll find the post. I could have sworn it was in 2014.

 

Does not seem like 5 years ago to me either.  

[Phil]

Wait nevermind, I remember it now. It was in 2012.

 

Most of those early years are blur to me.

[Phil]

I feel like the -30 thing was December 2012.

 

There may have been a “2008 but snowier” call a few years later with an early January near miss.

Yep, the near miss was 2014. The -30C thing was 2012. I was probably high on something in when I made the -30C post, because I never forget making a forecast that I've put significant effort into, and I don't remember anything about that one.

[Karl Bonner]

High of 67 at The Dalles Airport today = Warmest Thanksgiving since at least 1971, possibly the warmest in all of airport history. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Like Karl's post above, I had a warmer Thanksgiving compared to other many other years, but I am currently not sure how significant this one was. High of 64 degrees today, felt a lot like mid October in my opinion. This was a record high for the date too, previous record was 61 on 11/23/1959 at KLMT.

 

Last 10 Thanksgiving Highs [with departure from today in brackets]

 

2016: 45 [-19]

2015: 35 [-29]

2014: 59 [-5]

2013: 53 [-11]

2012: 45 [-19]

2011: 45 [-19]

2010: 24 [-40] [wow!]

2009: 46 [-18]

2008: 52 [-12]

2007: 41 [-23]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS. Best run yet for the GFS and nice to see it has shifted to the EURO. CMC today also did. We still have a long ways to go of course as we need several more days of model consistency and ensemble improvement before we can even begin to get excited over any of this. Cautiously optimistic.

[Front Ranger]

0z is pretty chilly by days 9-10. That block just needs a bit more amplification.

[Gradient Keeper]

0z is pretty chilly by days 9-10. That block just needs a bit more amplification.

Yeah, several cool troughs moving in from the northwest as the CPC forecaster mentioned in the 8-14 day outlook. The blocking on this run is great and there is real potential for a significant cold spell/arctic blast. Now onto the ensembles hoping to see the first signs of colder members and improvement.