November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Currently have a full plate right now. I'm taking apps though. 25 dollar app fee.

: /

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't do this to yourself again, man . . . 

 

75% does seem to be pushing it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS weeklies seem to be targeting the end of December. Now we know were Phil got his forecast.

[HighlandExperience]

I honestly believe there's a 75% chance that January 2018 will replace December 2008 as the big kahuna of the 21st century.

 

A number of positive signs are showing up. Tail end of the +QBO50 is ideal for easterly shear, deep layer easterly momentum deposition above the zero wind line as the -QBO downwells above 50mb, east-based Niña keeping the NPAC anticyclone near the GOA, weakening solar wind = less destruction of O^3 in the high latitude stratosphere.

Stop making us feel good

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil is the Oprah of this group. 

[stuffradio]

Phil is the Oprah of this group. 

You get a vacation! You get a vacation! You get a vacation! Everyone gets a vacation!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think it may have froze at tims

[TT-SEA]

I think it may have froze at tims

 

So close... got down to 54.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So close... got down to 54.

Lol.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Happy thanksgiving to all you nuts. Dont take days like this with your family and friends for granted.

[MossMan]

Tim’s first freeze with come on Dec. 24th when we plunge into a deep deep freeze with continued snowfalls that last until the end of January!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining again. What the heck?!

[Deweydog]

Phil is the Oprah of this group.

She actually gave people houses and cars, though.

[TT-SEA]

Looks nice up on Vancouver Island on this special day they call 'Thursday'.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Under the "just for fun, not a forecast" category, thought I would post this JMA for Christmas Eve.  Maybe in line with Phil saying around the holidays we could get blasted.

 

justforfun.jpg

It WILL happen... Seriously I believe it to be so...

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING to ALL my slightly Mental and Highly entertaining Weather and SNOW loving PEEPS.

 

We really do have so much to be thankful for... Hope time with family and friends hold something special for each of you!

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

She actually gave people houses and cars, though.

 

True. Phil only gives us false hope.

[Jesse]

True. Phil only gives us false hope.

He’s probably the best long range forecaster we have posting here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He’s probably the best long range forecaster we have posting here.

 

Probably "Black Hole" if he posted more. 

[stuffradio]

Can you spot when the storm starts!?

 

[Parksvillewx]

Looks nice up on Vancouver Island on this special day they call 'Thursday'.

Very nice up here today

[Jesse]

Probably "Black Hole" if he posted more.

His posts might collapse under their own weight.

[TT-SEA]

What day do they celebrate the genocide and exploitation of indigenous people?

 

Early October.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point my call for a lackluster December looks pretty on-point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Early October.

 

Early October.

 

A true "Harvest" festival.

[umadbro]

At this point my call for a lackluster December looks pretty on-point.

You're such an America hating Hitler loving troll!!

[stuffradio]

I'm at 10.03" of rain this month now. 12.7" is average for me.

[Guest El nina]

What day do they celebrate the genocide and exploitation of indigenous people?

Happy Thanksgiving everybody.

[snow_wizard]

At this point my call for a lackluster December looks pretty on-point.

 

I still say we will have something good in December.  It may only be a quick hitter or it may be something big, but there will likely be something we will like.

 

Right now January does look like the big month though.

[Timmy Supercell]

At this point my call for a lackluster December looks pretty on-point.

 

For the lowlands, or also for the higher elevations? Good reason I ask because I saw less than an inch in Dec 2011. lol

[seattleweatherguy]

Wrong year, buddy.

Possibly 2018 is the year?

[snow_wizard]

He’s probably the best long range forecaster we have posting here.

 

Using the in depth analysis and methodology he does there is no doubt he is.

 

I feel like I'm getting better using my self created index / past history methods.

[snow_wizard]

The models don't look quite as nice for week two as they did on the 0z, but that could change again.

[Phil]

Don't do this to yourself again, man . . .

That's what I told myself, but I can find eight examples (since 1950) with a progression like this, and 7/8 ended up delivering bigly in the PNW. The only bust was 2000/01.

 

None were in January either, but none were timed to deliver at that time, regardless.

[Phil]

CFS weeklies seem to be targeting the end of December. Now we know were Phil got his forecast.

The CFS agrees?? In that case, I take it back. We're screwed.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks nice up on Vancouver Island on this special day they call 'Thursday'.

Totally cleared out here

[MossMan]

[Phil]

He’s probably the best long range forecaster we have posting here.

Aww shucks.

 

Need to score when it counts, though. I've been choking in the playoffs lately.

[Phil]

Possibly 2018 is the year?

Haha, maybe. Hopefully not.

 

FWIW, it was 2013/14, I think. Ridge ended up too far east..was so close with the mother load sitting right there in Canada.

[BLI snowman]

Aww shucks.

 

Need to score when it counts, though. I've been choking in the playoffs lately.

 

Careful. One more sports reference and your forecasting credentials go out the window.