November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[umadbro]

That slug of rain has a whopping 0.03" with it.

[BLI snowman]

That slug of rain has a whopping 0.03" with it.

 

2004-05 esque.

[Front Ranger]

Nice to see 2014 and 2004 coming up as analogs tonight. Unsung Niño heroes.

ENSO = so overrated

[Front Ranger]

After observing over the last 3 months+, I foresee a winter which resembles 04'-05'. I will elaborate in a bit but you heard it here first.

We could see a January 1950 redux and you'd still sorta be correct, since Jan 2005 was THIS close to being epic.

[TT-SEA]

ENSO = so overrated

 

Speaking of ENSO... this has become much less of an east-based Nina in the last week.    Water warming off the PNW coast as well.

 

 

 

Here is the current SSTA map:

 

[ShawniganLake]

Only got to 59F here today with plenty of sun breaks. Still felt pretty warm.

[Timmy]

That slug of rain has a whopping 0.03" with it.

Udrybro?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS. Definitely liking where days 8-10+ is going!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112300/216/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112300/264/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern is perhaps still a bit too progressive on this run, but this is a step in the right direction. Let's see if there are any improvements on 00z GFS Ensembles and 6-10, 8-14 Day 500mb Composite Analogs.

[ShawniganLake]

We could see a January 1950 redux and you'd still sorta be correct, since Jan 2005 was THIS close to being epic.

It really was THAT close. The first half of that January was really good up here. As good as anything we’ve seen in January in my lifetime.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... went outside and the wind has picked up and its up to 67 now just ahead of the front.

[Deweydog]

Where's the latest SeaTac TTTempdate???

[TT-SEA]

Where's the latest SeaTac TTTempdate???

 

Rain has started there... down to 61.   Will the 56 hold??   Nobody knows.  

 

BLI is down to 56 now.

[MossMan]

Rain has started there... down to 61. Will the 56 hold?? Nobody knows.

 

BLI is down to 56 now.

Still 60 here!

[TT-SEA]

If the 56 holds... that will be the warmest November low in history and SEA will post an +18 for the day.  

[umadbro]

I've been in the 60' for about 24 hours now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sitting at 76 degrees in my house and have not ran the heat all day... All the pre-prep cooking for the big day tomorrow has really heated things up. Amazing how warm it was today. Still sitting around 62 with the back slider all the way open to cool things down.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog

Definite improvements noted. Not ideal yet, but it's far better than previous runs. Correlation Score needs work.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It really was THAT close. The first half of that January was really good up here. As good as anything we’ve seen in January in my lifetime.

 

I took this on the Malahat Jan 2005, I think it was pretty close to the Shawnigan exit. Almost didn't make it over.

 

 

Ladysmith had a good dump too:

 

 

Nanoose had a bit less, but it was super dense snow that knocked the power out all weekend:

 

[snow_wizard]

 

00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog

Definite improvements noted. Not ideal yet, but it's far better than previous runs. Correlation Score needs work.

 

 

 

Not bad at all.  Just think how crappy the GFS looked a few runs ago!  Something is brewing here.  At any rate the positive GOA height default is really proving itself.  The 0z GFS certainly looks good for a round of hard frosts if nothing else.

[snow_wizard]

I took this on the Malahat Jan 2005, I think it was pretty close to the Shawnigan exit. Almost didn't make it over.

 

 

Ladysmith had a good dump too:

 

 

Nanoose had a bit less, but it was super dense snow that knocked the power out all weekend:

 

 

Wow!  I knew Jan 2005 was good up there, but not that good.  That came so close to being epic for all of us.

[ShawniganLake]

I took this on the Malahat Jan 2005, I think it was pretty close to the Shawnigan exit. Almost didn't make it over.

 

 

Ladysmith had a good dump too:

 

 

Nanoose had a bit less, but it was super dense snow that knocked the power out all weekend:

 

Official snow depth topped out at 2’ at Shawnigan Lake, although I remember measuring closer to 27” at the North End of the Lake. And we had 6 sub freezing highs after the snow started to fall.

 

That top pic looks like maybe the Spectacle lake exit, just past the Shawnigan turnoff.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow!  I knew Jan 2005 was good up there, but not that good.  That came so close to being epic for all of us.

 

It was a pretty impressive event in terms of snowfall, though it wasn't particularly cold at lower elevations with daytime highs near or slightly above freezing. Definitely a top tier event for some parts of the island but no 1996 or 2008.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the individual CFS runs continue to show January being wickedly cold.  I have never seen it latch onto something this strongly before.

[Gradient Keeper]

Meanwhile the individual CFS runs continue to show January being wickedly cold.  I have never seen it latch onto something this strongly before.

Remarkably insane. Me neither.

[seattleweatherguy]

Meanwhile the individual CFS runs continue to show January being wickedly cold. I have never seen it latch onto something this strongly before.

Yay something to look forward to. Hope it gets colder.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 9 MUCH stronger ridge

 

Model comparison

Last night 00z

 

 

Tonight's 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

500mb Height anomaly

 

Last night 00z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112200/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Tonight's 00z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112300/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10. I like where this is going

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 10. I like where this is going

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png

I just got a weee bit excited!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

As DJ shared the EURO is showing all kinds of positive possibilities in the long range. I really Like the potential

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Another improving EURO run.

 

With that block there arctic air will reach northern Washington in 11-12 days. It's likely to shift east a bit from there right into the sweet spot.

[stuffradio]

Jan 2005 only got ~6 or 7" of snow in Abbotsford. Not bad but not great. I guess it's better than nothing!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 2 hours 4 minutes!

[bainbridgekid]

Still 59 at SEA at midnight so looks like they pulled it out!

 

68/56 is all kinds of ridiculous for late November.

[snow_wizard]

The last day that was this ridculous in November was early Nov 2010.  20 days later we got slammed.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs and setting up right at the sweet spot 160 W. Yet another step in the right direction.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

PDX finally topped 60 degrees at midnight.

[snow_wizard]

 

00z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs and setting up right at the sweet spot 160 W. Yet another step in the right direction.

 

 

 

 

 

00z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs and setting up right at the sweet spot 160 W. Yet another step in the right direction.

 

 

 

 

A lot to cheer about there.  Ridging over the Eastern US and a lot of blockiness in general to keep the pattern from being too progressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

A lot to cheer about there.  Ridging over the Eastern US and a lot of blockiness in general to keep the pattern from being too progressive.

Yep. This is starting to look like we really may see an abrupt change arriving early December.