November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMC is encouraging too

[luvssnow_spokane]

0z is pretty chilly by days 9-10. That block just needs a bit more amplification.

 

I was just going to post on this but was to slow as you beat me to it. It is a very nice run and surely would bring some chillier weather with massive potential for improvement. Seems to be similar to the ERUO in some respect. Looks like the GFS playing catch up again.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS. Best run yet for the GFS and nice to see it has shifted to the EURO. CMC today also did. We still have a long ways to go of course as we need several more days of model consistency and ensemble improvement before we can even begin to get excited over any of this. Cautiously optimistic.

I am starting to feel that tingly feeling you get when these model runs start to show up... loving that they are consistently moving in the same direction together now.... It is going to be a white Christmas this year. I can feel it.

[stuffradio]

I am starting to feel that tingly feeling you get when these model runs start to show up... loving that they are consistently moving in the same direction together now.... It is going to be a white Christmas this year. I can feel it.

I love carrots too!

[MossMan]

The rivers up here are experiencing the worst flooding since early November 2006.

[Gradient Keeper]

Happy Thanksgiving!
11/23/17 9:32 PM 00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

 

Day 6-10, 8-14
Can clearly see blocking over the Gulf of Alaska with modest amplification. We can also see the upper flow switching from a cool to chilly north-northwesterly flow to a colder northerly flow. Not ideal yet, but definitely improving.

 

 

Day 6-10

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

 

Day 8-14

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[MossMan]

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

11/23/17 9:32 PM 00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

 

Day 6-10, 8-14

Can clearly see blocking over the Gulf of Alaska with modest amplification. We can also see the upper flow switching from a cool to chilly north-northwesterly flow to a colder northerly flow. Not ideal yet, but definitely improving.

 

 

Day 6-10

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

 

Day 8-14

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

Great to see! Someone posted the teleconnection graphs earlier and it didn’t look like we stood a chance through most of December.

[Anti Marine Layer]

High of 67 at The Dalles Airport today = Warmest Thanksgiving since at least 1971, possibly the warmest in all of airport history. 

 

Nothing close to the 92 degrees in Downtown L.A.

[Gradient Keeper]

Great to see! Someone posted the teleconnection graphs earlier and it didn’t look like we stood a chance through most of December.

Yeah, I keep an eye on them daily. Last forecast from the GEFS I saw showed a fairly neutral PNA and positive EPO. We need them to tank. As we know though, things can change very quickly this time of year.

[Guest El nina]

My friend asked me a few weeks ago when it will snow this winter. Knowing how stupid of a question it was, I told him our first snow will begin at 3:02pm December 8th. Is it looking like I'll be right?

[Timmy Supercell]

I am seriously hearing crickets right now, this is November 23rd right?

[TT-SEA]

The rivers up here are experiencing the worst flooding since early November 2006.

Drought might be easing a little... need lots more rain though. We can't get complacent just because we had a few showers.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was outside earlier today and I farted.

But WAIT! THERE'S MORE!

 

So anyways, it felt just as warm as the ambient temperature surrounding me under my back patio. This IS late November, right? Crazy. Usually there's an easily discernible difference between the temperature of my flatulence and the conditions outside to where I will note or even mutter, "Oh.... that was warm." but nothing today. It just doesn't seem right. Yeah.

 

C'mon EURO!

[stuffradio]

Nice cluster of below normal members

 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive improvement on the last 2 GFS runs.  There will probably be even more improvement over the next few runs since it just picked up something more substantial happening.  No doubt the northern branch cooled this area off a ton from yesterday.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112400/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112400/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112400/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112400/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 - Well overall it's not a bad run. We definitely cool off. Offshore flow seems to develop in the extended period. The main thing is the positive anomaly/heights remain near the sweet spot 150-160 W.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112400/240/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

For the first time I can remember the ECMWF and GFS teleconnection forecasts have the AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO all negative in early December.  That is just plain nuts!  One can only imagine how sluggish the atmosphere will be in the dead of winter at this rate.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10 - Well overall it's not a bad run. We definitely cool off. Offshore flow seems to develop in the extended period. The main thing is the positive anomaly/heights remain near the sweet spot 150-160 W.

 

 

No doubt the pieces are there.  Days 9 and 10 show a northerly gradient for Seattle which should make it pretty cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

For the first time I can remember the ECMWF and GFS teleconnection forecasts have the AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO all negative in early December.  That is just plain nuts!  One can only imagine how sluggish the atmosphere will be in the dead of winter at this rate.

Oh really? Jackpot

[seattleweatherguy]

Maybe several warning shots with a few inches of snow leading to a huge event in Jan.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe several warning shots with a few inches of snow leading to a huge event in Jan.

 

Could well be.  It certainly looks like December could feature a lot of below normal days at this point.

[snow_wizard]

Oh really? Jackpot

 

Yup.  It's really hard to believe they could all be negative at the same time.  The forecasts are actually solidly negative.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yup.  It's really hard to believe they could all be negative at the same time.  The forecasts are actually solidly negative.

Can you post the charts or link to it please?

[snow_wizard]

Can you post the charts or link to it please?

 

It's from weatherbell so there's no way to post a link.  The charts are all separate so it would be pretty difficult to post screen shots of them.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty impressive improvement on the last 2 GFS runs.  There will probably be even more improvement over the next few runs since it just picked up something more substantial happening.  No doubt the northern branch cooled this area off a ton from yesterday.

 

Still a record high at SEA and a +11 departure on the day, though.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 1 hour 30 minutes!

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the sun is definitely going to sleep.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Still a record high at SEA and a +11 departure on the day, though.

 

The high was set at midnight.  The daytime temps were much lower.

[Jbolin]

6z GFS in 1 hour 30 minutes!

720 hours until x-mas 

[Front Ranger]

The high was set at midnight.  The daytime temps were much lower.

 

True. Afternoon temps were about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and yet still easily above normal.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble shows seepage of chilly continental air into the western lowlands at days 9 and 10.  Nice to see the continental lobe on the surface high complex even with rather modest amplification.  I could easily see this becoming something greater in subsequent runs.  

[snow_wizard]

True. Afternoon temps were about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and yet still easily above normal.

 

True.  All I said is it was considerably cooler today during the day.

[luvssnow_spokane]

True. Afternoon temps were about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, and yet still easily above normal.

At 1pm yesterday I was about 70 degrees ( had a high of 71) at the same time today I was 20 degreas cooler at 51... big difference.

[luvssnow_spokane]

True. All I said is it was considerably cooler today during the day.

Yes it was... it felt completely different today. More like normal.

[snow_wizard]

At 1pm yesterday I was about 70 degrees ( had a high of 71) at the same time today I was 20 degreas cooler at 51... big difference.

 

I was actually kind of disappointed yesterday that it only reached 64 here.  There was enough easterly component to the wind to keep some cooler air in place here.  Even at that it still felt very warm.  Weather like that in November (especially with cold ENSO) usually means big time cold is coming.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ECMWF ensemble shows seepage of chilly continental air into the western lowlands at days 9 and 10.  Nice to see the continental lobe on the surface high complex even with rather modest amplification.  I could easily see this becoming something greater in subsequent runs.  

00z EPS quite good. Pattern overall is excellent, we just need better amplification of Gulf of Alaska/western Alaska block. Positive anomaly signal remains around 150-160 W. Quite remarkable agreement with the ECMWF Op. It seems to be a trend now.

[MossMan]

Hopefully the Camano Island radar being down like it is right now won’t be a chronic problem this winter...

Currently 45 breezy degrees and dry at the moment.