November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[MossMan]

My Seahawks windsock just blew away. Not a good sign for today.

[TT-SEA]

Yup...so much for the warm day!

 

Already in the books though... SEA reached at least 58 today.  

 

Normal high is now 49.

[snow_wizard]

The way things are looking now we could be moving into a classic fake cold pattern.

 

I was just going to say the ECMWF surface temp maps are pretty chilly as we get into December.  Lows upper 20s to low 30s and highs low to mid 40s.  Some fake cold early in the winter followed by the real stuff later sounds fine to me.

[snow_wizard]

My Seahawks windsock just blew away. Not a good sign for today.

 

 

Sounds like a truly bad omen.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was just going to say the ECMWF surface temp maps are pretty chilly as we get into December.  Lows upper 20s to low 30s and highs low to mid 40s.  Some fake cold early in the winter followed by the real stuff later sounds fine to me.

Strong cold pool Columbia Basin, low levels chilly for sure. Bring it on! We need Gorton's Fisherman to get rid of that darn Greenland Block too.

[Gradient Keeper]

11/26/17 12:06 PM Siberia update
Bitter cold intensifying over Siberia. Vodka cold. (Exactly like last November!) When this is dislodged either entirely or in 'chunks' it will head across the arctic to Alaska and the Canadian Archipelago. That is most likely to occur near/after Christmas and into January. Of course we'll watch the models to see if any cold waves are forecast to move into Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories and then if we have a favorable 500mb pattern in place with an amplified block near 145-160 W look out! Woooo. Fun times ahead!

 

Ojmjakon -61 °F Snow 55% 30.12 in
Omolon -52 °F Mist 36% 29.81 in
Sejmchan -52 °F Snow 36% 29.75 in
Amakinskiy -49 °F 72% 30.07 in
Curapca -48 °F Clear 51% 29.81 in
Bilibino -46 °F 38% 29.74 in
Dzhende -44 °F 67% 29.83 in
Ilirney -44 °F 41% 29.79 in
Imega -44 °F 40% 29.87 in
Olenek -44 °F 44% 30.15 in
Batamaj -43 °F Clear 67% 29.86 in
Alaas -42 °F Clear 66% in
Nelkan -41 °F 47% 29.80 in
Betyuntsy -40 °F Overcast 93% 29.81 in
Magan -40 °F Fog 67% 29.74 in

 

[crf450ish]

[TT-SEA]

I can tell you firsthand that you will absolutely love it. All of the conveniences a major metropolitan city, yet just a hop skip and a jump to a rural outlying areas.

 

Wake boarding and waterskiing in the summer and snow fun activities in the winter!

 

We have the same thing here!  

[snow_wizard]

Strong cold pool Columbia Basin, low levels chilly for sure. Bring it on! We need Gorton's Fisherman to get rid of that darn Greenland Block too.

 

That Greenland block can be good for us if it's west based.

[crf450ish]

We have the same thing here!

No doubt. It doesn’t get much better than a 80+ degree day in western wa. Just wish those days weren’t so hit and miss.

[snow_wizard]

 

11/26/17 12:06 PM Siberia update

Bitter cold intensifying over Siberia. Vodka cold. (Exactly like last November!) When this is dislodged either entirely or in 'chunks' it will head across the arctic to Alaska and the Canadian Archipelago. That is most likely to occur near/after Christmas and into January. Of course we'll watch the models to see if any cold waves are forecast to move into Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories and then if we have a favorable 500mb pattern in place with an amplified block near 145-160 W look out! Woooo. Fun times ahead!

 

Ojmjakon -61 °F Snow 55% 30.12 in

Omolon -52 °F Mist 36% 29.81 in

Sejmchan -52 °F Snow 36% 29.75 in

Amakinskiy -49 °F 72% 30.07 in

Curapca -48 °F Clear 51% 29.81 in

Bilibino -46 °F 38% 29.74 in

Dzhende -44 °F 67% 29.83 in

Ilirney -44 °F 41% 29.79 in

Imega -44 °F 40% 29.87 in

Olenek -44 °F 44% 30.15 in

Batamaj -43 °F Clear 67% 29.86 in

Alaas -42 °F Clear 66% in

Nelkan -41 °F 47% 29.80 in

Betyuntsy -40 °F Overcast 93% 29.81 in

Magan -40 °F Fog 67% 29.74 in

 

 

 

Man that is cold!  One city is snowing with a temp of -61.

[HighlandExperience]

Man that is cold! One city is snowing with a temp of -61.

We need that cold air on our side of the globe

[crf450ish]

https://youtu.be/BgzkrfksvP4

[Geos]

I had just finished blowing off the driveway since it was dead calm and dry...then came the massive rain and west wind....that erased all of my work.

Doh! Was trying go clean up too. Then the wind and rain came in strong.

[Gradient Keeper]

https://youtu.be/BgzkrfksvP4

Ya, I wanna move there. It's nice in the Summer though.

 

18z GFS began 4 minutes ago!

[snow_wizard]

The temp has dropped to 45 here now.  Quite a drop from the 56 I had earlier.

[snow_wizard]

We need that cold air on our side of the globe

 

Plenty of time for that to happen.  The sheer expanse of the extreme cold over Asia is pretty breathtaking right now.  Even fringe areas like North Korea are running way below normal.

[Parksvillewx]

Mix of sun and cloud mixed in with 20 minute episodes of crazy wind most of the day. Had to get off the roof from putting Christmas lights up at one point from the wind.

[Gradient Keeper]

Mix of sun and cloud mixed in with 20 minute episodes of crazy wind most of the day. Had to get off the roof from putting Christmas lights up at one point from the wind.

That just makes it more memorable. I'm glad you're okay. Did you go out all Griswold style? or something a bit less insane.

[Parksvillewx]

That just makes it more memorable. I'm glad you're okay. Did you go out all Griswold style? or something a bit less insane.

 

 

Slightly less insane. But, there's always next year. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Finally some real east side rain. Began downpouring moments ago.

 

Also was pretty windy earlier, but has stopped now. Had a few gusts well over 50mph. KLMT maxed at 53.

[stuffradio]

I want snow!

 

Anyone with me???

I want the cup!

[Phil]

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/317D35A0-5D07-499C-BBFE-38E505F38EB5_zpsj6ajulsg.jpg

[Deweydog]

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/317D35A0-5D07-499C-BBFE-38E505F38EB5_zpsj6ajulsg.jpg

Did Kevin Martin write that?

[snow_wizard]

To me the 18z GFS seems to really go off the rails in a number of areas during week two.  None of it makes a huge difference for us, but I think the progression is highly unlikely to verify on a large scale.

[Deweydog]

To me the 18z GFS seems to really go off the rails in a number of areas during week two. None of it makes a huge difference for us, but I think the progression is highly unlikely to verify on a large scale.

Translation: I don't like it.

[The Swamp]

I was just going to say the ECMWF surface temp maps are pretty chilly as we get into December.  Lows upper 20s to low 30s and highs low to mid 40s.  Some fake cold early in the winter followed by the real stuff later sounds fine to me.

 

why do you always want the good stuff later?  just curious?

 

I have higher standards I guess.  I want the good stuff as often as I can get it.

 

No rationalizing or settling for a little dab of something maybe in January.

 

Give me the good stuff as early and as often as possible, please.

 

It usually doesn't work out for me but at least I want it that way.

[crf450ish]

why do you always want the good stuff later? just curious?

 

I have higher standards I guess. I want the good stuff as often as I can get it.

 

No rationalizing or settling for a little dab of something maybe in January.

 

Give me the good stuff as early and as often as possible, please.

 

It usually doesn't work out for me but at least I want it that way.

My 81 year old grandfather spent 30+ years in Puyallup. Worked for Milawaukee railroad in Tacoma. I spent most of thanksgiving picking his brain about the winters in Puyallup during the 60’s thru the early 80’s. Believe me, Puyallup has a history of pure epic winter events. It’s only a matter of time before history repeats itself.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 3 hours 4 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Surface Temp/Dewpoint ensembles for Yakima and Moses Lake. Strong cold pool signature with temps near or just below freezing indicated(high temps). Dewpoints well below freezing. This persists for 7-8 days.

[Phil]

To me the 18z GFS seems to really go off the rails in a number of areas during week two. None of it makes a huge difference for us, but I think the progression is highly unlikely to verify on a large scale.

What's wrong with it? It looks fine to me.

 

We're entering a (temporary) niño-esque pattern, which should last until the Holidays.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z GEFS Surface Temp/Dewpoint ensembles for Yakima and Moses Lake. Strong cold pool signature with temps near or just below freezing indicated(high temps). Dewpoints well below freezing. This persists for 7-8 days.

Some good cold into the Columbia Basin

[Phil]

A second vent just opened on Agung. This one has a higher water vapor content than the first one, as is decipherable from the different color hues.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FC6E3A1F-DFBD-417D-AA4E-7F8DC306E6C3_zpslsjriuw6.jpg

[Jesse]

Translation: I don't like it.

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The Swamp]

My 81 year old grandfather spent 30+ years in Puyallup. Worked for Milawaukee railroad in Tacoma. I spent most of thanksgiving picking his brain about the winters in Puyallup during the 60’s thru the early 80’s. Believe me, Puyallup has a history of pure epic winter events. It’s only a matter of time before history repeats itself.

 

Well that is great.  The way some talk about winter on this site it's like some virigin that needs to wait for the good stuff.

 

I just want it and I want it NOW.  And a week from NOW.  And a month from NOW.

 

Why wait?  If we limit ourselves to January for the "good stuff" what if it doesn't happen?  Then it's February and Tim starts to tell us about his roses and cherry blossoms again and it's all over.

 

Give it to me early and often.

[HighlandExperience]

My 81 year old grandfather spent 30+ years in Puyallup. Worked for Milawaukee railroad in Tacoma. I spent most of thanksgiving picking his brain about the winters in Puyallup during the 60’s thru the early 80’s. Believe me, Puyallup has a history of pure epic winter events. It’s only a matter of time before history repeats itself.

Good winters ended 40 years ago.

[Front Ranger]

Well that is great. The way some talk about winter on this site it's like some virigin that needs to wait for the good stuff.

 

I just want it and I want it NOW. And a week from NOW. And a month from NOW.

 

Why wait? If we limit ourselves to January for the "good stuff" what if it doesn't happen? Then it's February and Tim starts to tell us about his roses and cherry blossoms again and it's all over.

 

Give it to me early and often.

You seem to kinda be missing the point. It's not that other people don't want snow soon, they just know that historically, it rarely works out that you get it "early and often", and the best periods of winter weather have generally come later.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I smell something.

 

 

January 10th snow...................2017 and 2018.

[MossMan]

Good winters ended 40 years ago.

Our good winters ended 6yrs ago in my book.

[TT-SEA]

Our good winters ended 6yrs ago in my book.

 

That is not an end... we have had bad cycles in the 'good old days'