November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Deweydog]

Wanting a torch will never be acceptable conduct here. There is only tolerating a torch with minimal moodiness with the expressed certainty it will result in a monumental crash within 600 hours.

[Kayla]

Also has little support from the ensembles. 

 

This is when we want to torch, peeps. Now through early/mid December. At least if you're rooting for significant mid winter cold.

 

The ensemble mean definitely hints at a backdoor slider though.

[ShawniganLake]

Also has little support from the ensembles.

 

This is when we want to torch, peeps. Now through early/mid December. At least if you're rooting for significant mid winter cold.

I agree.

[ShawniganLake]

A very soggy 2.79” of rain here yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

The ensemble mean definitely hints at a backdoor slider though.

 

Pretty stark difference. I don't really see it. Even bigger difference earlier in the run.

 

 

[Kayla]

Pretty stark difference. I don't really see it. Even bigger difference earlier in the run.

 

gfs_z500a_us_36.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png

 

It's obviously muted (we're talking 8-9 days out) but the ridge begins to break down in the ensemble mean as well, just not to the extent of the operational obviously.

 

Point being, it trended cooler in that same time frame.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully a nice Thanksgiving and then let's have the coldest, nastiest December on record.

[Timmy Supercell]

Hopefully a nice Thanksgiving and then let's have the coldest, nastiest December on record.

 

With many locations having one of the top 5 coldest Decembers in 2013, not to say I wouldn't like it to happen but seems unlikely. Here I had the 3rd coldest Dec since 1940 that year.

 

Unless of course, Global Climate Warming Change.

[MossMan]

With many locations having one of the top 5 coldest Decembers in 2013, not to say I wouldn't like it to happen but seems unlikely. Here I had the 3rd coldest Dec since 1940 that year.

 

Unless of course, Global Climate Warming Change.

2013 was pretty boring other than one little snow event up here that lasted a few hours. I would like to order up a 2008/1990/1996/even 1998 was more exciting.

[ShawniganLake]

2013 was pretty boring other than one little snow event up here that lasted a few hours. I would like to order up a 2008/1990/1996/even 1998 was more exciting.

2013 was definitely an Oregon event. Wasn’t really cold or snowy at all for northern areas. For comparison last December was 3 degrees colder than December 2013 here.

[Jesse]

Wanting a torch will never be acceptable conduct here. There is only tolerating a torch with minimal moodiness with the expressed certainty it will result in a monumental crash within 600 hours.

It’s Matt against a cold loving world!

[Timmy Supercell]

2013 was pretty boring other than one little snow event up here that lasted a few hours. I would like to order up a 2008/1990/1996/even 1998 was more exciting.

 

It's a tad more difficult to have both a historically cold December and a snowy one. I admit snow here was lame in 2013, it consisted of literally one 5" day just before the blast, and then it was just dry. But insanely cold for most of the month. Surprised it only resulted in 1 dead tree in our yard.

[Deweydog]

It’s Matt against a cold loving world!

Haven't you been starting enough around here lately? Sit out a couple plays once in a while.

[Jesse]

Haven't you been starting enough s**t around here lately? Sit out a couple plays once in a while.

Could say the same to you.

 

Seems I struck a nerve though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2013 was definitely an Oregon event. Wasn’t really cold or snowy at all for northern areas. For comparison last December was 3 degrees colder than December 2013 here.

So it was -10 in Eugene and wasn't at all cold up north? I see people mention 1996 as a big year but I don't remember any real cold or much snow down here so both years seemed to be more localized. Obviously 49-50 is one we would all be good with too.

 

I guess if we are rooting for a regional, widespread snowy winter, we are looking good with 2008 as an analog.

[Deweydog]

Could say the same to you.

 

Seems I struck a nerve though.

I'm reeling. Like a plastic Safeway bag blowing around at the summit of Mt. Rainer.

[Jesse]

I'm reeling. Like a plastic Safeway bag blowing around at the summit of Mt. Rainer.

I guess if you count a geography/weather related discussion as starting that’s your thing. At least I take a step beyond the sarcastic one liners ever now and again.

[Geos]

Same time, 06z compared to now the 12z GFS. Ummmm...okay!

 

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 9.37.16 AM.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 9.37.25 AM.png

 

Impressive flip.

[Jesse]

12z GFS was certainly interesting. Not a ton of ensemble support but is a decent amount of spread at points.

 

Seems the models are having an unusually hard time with the upcoming pattern. It’s been throwing the Euro off too.

[Deweydog]

I guess if you count a geography/weather related discussion as starting s**t that’s your thing. At least I take a step beyond the sarcastic one liners ever now and again.

And here we go...

 

Conform to Jesse or pay the post count price!!!

[Jesse]

And here we go...

 

Conform to Jesse or pay the post count price!!!

I’m done. And the post that made you snap was just a rehash of something you’ve said to me many times. Learn to take your own medicine.

[Deweydog]

I’m done. And the post that made you snap was just a rehash of something you’ve said to me many times. Learn to take your own medicine.

I have a lot to learn. Thanks, man for the sage advice and overall keeping it real. Sorry for losing my cool like that. I'll pay for the damages and call your mom and apologize.

[Jesse]

I have a lot to learn. Thanks, man for the sage advice and overall keeping it real. Sorry for losing my cool like that. I'll pay for the damages and call your mom and apologize.

Apology accepted.

[Geos]

Alright guys. Enough now. Let's get back on track and not clutter up the topic with unrelated posts. 

Take it to PM if you have more to say.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Precipitation shield ends between Drain and Roseburg

[Deweydog]

Euro says December is still safe!

[Geos]

Let's all go snowboarding or skiing this afternoon. There is a mountain in the distance in this view.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I guess this is the year I cannot possibly request a warmer pineapple. Oh well, maybe next year. It should still taste good though. Beggars can't be choosers.

 

[ShawniganLake]

So it was -10 in Eugene and wasn't at all cold up north? I see people mention 1996 as a big year but I don't remember any real cold or much snow down here so both years seemed to be more localized. Obviously 49-50 is one we would all be good with too.

 

I guess if we are rooting for a regional, widespread snowy winter, we are looking good with 2008 as an analog.

It was chilly for a few days in December 2013 but that was a mostly Backdoor type setup. Easterly gradients aren’t good for Fraser river outflow, so temps were pretty underwhelming. The lack of snow on the ground didn’t help.

 

1996 had more of a northerly gradient which results in arctic air pouring out of the Fraser canyon. The cold cut off pretty sharply in Washington state though. A warm SW flow produced a battleground setup for several days after Christmas. Several days of snowfall culminated in a massive overrunning event on the 28/29th. Victoria (Colwood) recorded 3 feet of snow in one 24hr period. I measured 22” in about 10 hours. I have heard reports of 20 to 30 foot snow drifts in the Fraser Valley just east of Vancouver BC.

[HighlandExperience]

It was chilly for a few days in December 2013 but that was a mostly Backdoor type setup. Easterly gradients aren’t good for Fraser river outflow, so temps were pretty underwhelming. The lack of snow on the ground didn’t help.

 

1996 had more of a northerly gradient which results in arctic air pouring out of the Fraser canyon. The cold cut off pretty sharply in Washington state though. A warm SW flow produced a battleground setup for several days after Christmas. Several days of snowfall culminated in a massive overrunning event on the 28/29th. Victoria (Colwood) recorded 3 feet of snow in one 24hr period. I measured 22” in about 10 hours. I have heard reports of 20 to 30 foot snow drifts in the Fraser Valley just east of Vancouver BC.

I remember the 1996 storm as a kid. I don’t think we have experienced anything like that since than? Or perhaps I’m mistaken.

 

When I think of arctic express I think of that storm.

 

I just remember that storm coming with a lot of intensity. Truly special memory.

[MossMan]

This was all we had for the Dec 2013 overriding event. Snowed the morning of the 20th and was about gone the next day. Dec 1996 I had 2 feet of snow for that overriding event...it was epic! The biggest thing I remember was during the day of the 28th the temp rose to 36 degrees and I was thinking we were going to bust big time but by about 2pm the temp started dropping and by the time the precip started that evening the temp plummeted down to 15F and it snowed heavily all night before turning to rain mid morning of the 29th which turned the 2 feet of snow into massively heavy concrete collapsing roofs all over the area.

[Geos]

It was chilly for a few days in December 2013 but that was a mostly Backdoor type setup. Easterly gradients aren’t good for Fraser river outflow, so temps were pretty underwhelming. The lack of snow on the ground didn’t help.

 

1996 had more of a northerly gradient which results in arctic air pouring out of the Fraser canyon. The cold cut off pretty sharply in Washington state though. A warm SW flow produced a battleground setup for several days after Christmas. Several days of snowfall culminated in a massive overrunning event on the 28/29th. Victoria (Colwood) recorded 3 feet of snow in one 24hr period. I measured 22” in about 10 hours. I have heard reports of 20 to 30 foot snow drifts in the Fraser Valley just east of Vancouver BC.

 

Just started reading on this storm. Wow!

Found a video on it too.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3146344/a-look-back-1996-snow-storm-of-the-century-hits-vancouver-and-victoria/

[Front Ranger]

I remember the 1996 storm as a kid. I don’t think we have experienced anything like that since than? Or perhaps I’m mistaken.

 

When I think of arctic express I think of that storm.

 

I just remember that storm coming with a lot of intensity. Truly special memory.

 

Dec 1996 didn't really have a strong Arctic front, at least in Tacoma. The snow came in two waves, one right after Christmas as a storm moving in from the west (I believe) pulled cold air down the Puget Sound that had been hanging out just to the north. Then a couple days later, another very wet storm moved up from the southwest for heavy snow to rain transition. However, I know places in Whatcom County experienced blizzard conditions in Dec 1996 as there was both very heavy snow and strong Fraser outflow at times.

 

You might be thinking of Jan 1996, which featured a true Puget Sound Arctic front with a storm dropping south.

[Jesse]

It’s really been a ridiculously long time since we’ve seen a truly strong, region wide arctic front. Even thought last winter was cold there was nothing like that.

[MossMan]

Just started reading on this storm. Wow!

Found a video on it too.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3146344/a-look-back-1996-snow-storm-of-the-century-hits-vancouver-and-victoria/

I have news coverage of this event on VHS that I taped at the time and will occasionally pull my VCR out of the closet and watch it...it was epic!! Another super memorable thing was the original forecast was perhaps a rain snow mix but nothing special...well I remember being at my grandparents house on Christmas evening and they always had the radio on in the background and I suddenly overhear that there was a major shift in the forecast and that a winter storm warning has been issued for Olympia north to the border...I no longer cared about any Christmas festivities and all focus was on getting home to my weather radio! It was magical!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It’s really been a ridiculously long time since we’ve seen a truly strong, region wide arctic front. Even thought last winter was cold there was nothing like that.

2008 was the last time? I remember that rain changing to snow on that Sunday then several inches fell as the temp went from near 40 down to like 17 in the span of 3 hours.

[Jesse]

2008 was the last time? I remember that rain changing to snow on that Sunday then several inches fell as the temp went from near 40 down to like 17 in the span of 3 hours.

Im not sure what you’re remembering there. I don’t recall any temperature drops that sharp. That was another seepage event which is about the best we seem to be able to do down here these days.

 

I’m talking like a December 1990 type blast.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Im not sure what you’re remembering there. I don’t recall any temperature drops that sharp. That was another seepage event which is about the best we seem to be able to do down here these days.

 

I’m talking like a December 1990 type blast.

I was really little then and barely remember it. What was the sequence of events for Seattle down to the WV?

[Deweydog]

Im not sure what you’re remembering there. I don’t recall any temperature drops that sharp. That was another seepage event which is about the best we seem to be able to do down here these days.

 

I’m talking like a December 1990 type blast.

I think he's recalling the valley wind shift which occurred around the 22nd with the surface low. His temp drop is exaggerated though.

 

Arctic fronts are rare around here for the simple fact upper air level changes rarely advect to the surface around here unless you have precip. And most of our strong cold advection events carry some form of downslope. You almost always need some manner of warm advection which is then going to slow things to a bleed thanks to topography.

[HighlandExperience]

Im not sure what you’re remembering there. I don’t recall any temperature drops that sharp. That was another seepage event which is about the best we seem to be able to do down here these days.

 

I’m talking like a December 1990 type blast.

Exactly. I’d love to experience something like that now.