November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS in 7 minutes!

Bring it!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

OOOOOOooooooooo

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's trying to get a little real at the end of 00z... 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I guess whats important is Tims roses.

 

They are still blooming.   Any idea when its actually going below freezing here??   They need their rest... spring will be starting up in a few weeks.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

They are still blooming.   Any idea when its actually going below freezing here??   They need their rest... spring will be starting up in a few weeks.   

Ski resorts are opening early... So thank you for your humble sacrifice.

[Gradient Keeper]

We're gettin' there!

[luvssnow_spokane]

We're gettin' there!

baby steps and baby carrots

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF in 6 minutes!

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS made a major move toward what I'm thinking.  Even shows a minor cold shot by day 8.  The pattern simply doesn't want to go away from anomalous GOA ridging for very long.  The GFS keeps adding these little mini cold snaps on most runs now.

[bainbridgekid]

My friends in Capitol Hill told me Monday's storm was a total sh*tstorm there, but I didn't realized they were speaking literally! 

 

 

http://www.king5.com/news/local/storm-launched-honey-bucket-onto-seattle-roof/492219193

[Gradient Keeper]

The 0z GFS made a major move toward what I'm thinking.  Even shows a minor cold shot by day 8.  The pattern simply doesn't want to go away from anomalous GOA ridging for very long.  The GFS keeps adding these little mini cold snaps on most runs now.

I agree. After day 6-7 the upper level pattern upstream over Alaska/North Pacific has improved on several runs. Is it a trend? Maybe.

[Gradient Keeper]

My friends in Capitol Hill told me Monday's storm was intense there, but I didn't realize it was a literal shitstorm.

 

 

http://www.king5.com/news/local/storm-launched-honey-bucket-onto-seattle-roof/492219193

LOL niceeeeeee

 

Someone needs to photoshop this and add Cousin Eddy "Shitters Full!"

[Gradient Keeper]

Favorite Christmas Movie.....

 

Miracle on 34th Street

Night Before Christmas

Bad Santa

Rudolph Red-nosed Reindeer

A Christmas Story

Frosty The Snowman

Elf

Die Hard 2

The Grinch

Prancer

The Santa Clause

Debbie Does Santa

[Deweydog]

Are we supposed to guess?

[Gradient Keeper]

Are we supposed to guess?

Of course

[Deweydog]

Of course

It's not on the list.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's not on the list.

Lol Feel free to add it. What is it? This should be good.

[Deweydog]

Lol Feel free to add it. What is it? This should be good.

Well, it's not exactly a movie but it's a celebrated family classic in our holy household...

 

Woodland Critter Christmas.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, it's not exactly a movie but it's a celebrated family classic in our holy household...

 

Woodland Critter Christmas.

Lol Thanks for not letting us down. Seen it.

[Phil]

Clown range GFS versus the 1950-1980 background state.

 

Now, if we can just avoid returning to a +PNA/+NAO for any length of time over the next decade and beyond..lol.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7CD4D3F0-424E-4C5A-8979-43B6402AA133_zpsqmvawied.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7BE90C52-86C4-41A8-AE1B-6424CA33ABB5_zpsaiginlse.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Clown range GFS versus the 1950-1980 background state.

 

Now, if we can just avoid returning to a +PNA/+NAO for any length of time over the next decade and beyond..lol.

 

 

 

Spooky how similar that is.

[Phil]

Spooky how similar that is.

Yeah, it really is. The term "past is prologue" definitely holds sway when it comes to climate dynamics. The system always sticks with what works..aka the easiest routes to equilibrium.

[snow_wizard]

Quite a number of ensemble members go to -5 or lower during week two on the 0z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently down to 36 with light rain. 1.88" since midnight.

[Jesse]

The models are an absolute mess right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes!

[snow_wizard]

The models are an absolute mess right now.

 

The pattern is extremely complex and poorly teleconnected.  Expect big changes on short notice.

[Gradient Keeper]

The pattern is extremely complex and poorly teleconnected.  Expect big changes on short notice.

Agreed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh wow. I am up for the 06z...Better ride this one out!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11-14 marked the 2 year anniversary of the earliest snow since I have lived up here. That was a pretty dynamic front. I had 58 degrees with heavy rain at midnight and by 4am it was 32 with heavy snow falling. Ended up with about 2" of wet snow by dawn. That winter was not great, but definitely better than the previous one. 

[Gradient Keeper]

After day 7 ridge is in a much better position

[ShawniganLake]

Oh wow. I am up for the 06z...Better ride this one out!

Taking the night shift for us! Next week is looking mild and wet.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z much cooler after day 7-8. If that ridge amplifies some we could be quite snowy.

 

Nice blast in la-la land. Positive anomaly shifts from 160-170 W, to 155-160 W.

 

12z GFS in 4 hours 40 minutes!

 

Colder runs ahead. Book it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad run.

[Gradient Keeper]

It would be nice to see some ensemble improvement with both the mean and individual members from HR 168-240.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 4 minutes!

[Jesse]

Looks like the mountains got a decent dump of snow overnight. Longmire (which sits at 2,500’ on the SW side of Mount Rainier) looks to have picked up several inches.

 

Shame a lot of this will likely be washed away by warm rains next week. Such is November.

[Geos]

Little chilly this morning. Sitting at 42 with a breezy west wind.

[MossMan]

41 cloudy and breezy currently.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43 and showery here in Springfield