November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Timmy Supercell]

Bring on the storms.

 

I've been waiting for this pattern! If this were last year we'd already be in it.

[MossMan]

Yet another day of no sunspots. Getting into the low solar activity area of 08 and 09 now.

 

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

Awesome, thanks for posting this! Another reason to be very hopeful about this winter!

[Deweydog]

I was washing my truck in shorts on Thanksgiving 2008 and was very concerned as well...until the greatness started just a couple of weeks later!

I was playing naked badminton outside in early December before the crash.

[ShawniganLake]

I was playing naked badminton outside in early December before the crash.

That’s the game with the shuttlecocks, right?

[Deweydog]

That’s the game with the shuttlecocks, right?

Shrunken, shriveled shuttlecocks, yes.

[MossMan]

I was playing naked badminton outside in early December before the crash.

I thought that was the time that lawn furniture was flying into your yard last year?

[Deweydog]

I thought that was the time that lawn furniture was flying into your yard last year?

No, thank God. That could have been disastrous.

[HighlandExperience]

Yet another day of no sunspots. Getting into the low solar activity area of 08 and 09 now.

 

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

Interesting. Is this why winters sucked so bad prior to 2006?

[Timmy Supercell]

Interesting. Is this why winters sucked so bad prior to 2006?

 

Was '03-'04 only good for NW OR and not in Washington? I tend to forget minor details.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I thought I remember 03-04 being one of those "something for everybody" in the PNW years (with 2008 being the most recent type of regional widespread snow events & such) but I could be mistaken.

[HighlandExperience]

[umadbro]

03-04 was good. Especially late December early January.

[ShawniganLake]

03-04 was good. Especially late December early January.

Yea. I think that was a good stretch just about everywhere

[Phil]

Interesting. Is this why winters sucked so bad prior to 2006?

One of many factors.

[Timmy Supercell]

I was out of state for school that year. But I mostly remember 1998 through 2006 mostly sucking.

 

These were my formative years moving from my teenage life to young adulthood. I was under the impression that our climate was just incapable of good snowfall due to global warming

 

As a young kid I do remember the mid 90s having some great snows.

 

I have neighbors (in their 60's who moved here in the 1980's) who thought that exact same thing until we had our last two winters. Then the 18+ inch snow I got Jan 3-4 this year totally shocked them. Climate Change is only a long term thing and does not include individual events. We have actually seen very D**n impressive thunderstorms and hailstorms here (20-30+ years ago) compared to now, a very good example why individual events cannot be used as a correlation to Climate Change. 

[TT-SEA]

Gusty south wind at SEA all day.   

 

Its been dead calm here all day which is unusual with a strong winds over Seattle... unless there is weak offshore flow here at the time.   I don't think that is the case.

 

The 12Z WRF did show a small calm area in central King County this afternoon:

 

[HighlandExperience]

I have neighbors (in their 60's who moved here in the 1980's) who thought that exact same thing until we had our last two winters. Then the 18+ inch snow I got Jan 3-4 this year totally shocked them. Climate Change is only a long term thing and does not include individual events. We have actually seen very d**n impressive thunderstorms and hailstorms here (20-30+ years ago) compared to now, a very good example why individual events cannot be used as a correlation to Climate Change.

Well the education system drilled into our head during the late 90s and early 2000s that winter was something for previous generations.

[Geos]

Gusty south wind at SEA all day.   

 

Its been dead calm here all day which is unusual with a strong winds over Seattle... unless there is weak offshore flow here at the time.   I don't think that is the case.

 

The 12Z WRF did show a small calm area in central King County this afternoon:

 

 

Been a little breezy here this afternoon, but not like yesterday at this time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mid-50s here and the occasional breeze. Frontal band slowly creeping this way.

[MossMan]

Mid-50s here and the occasional breeze. Frontal band slowly creeping this way.

[Geos]

Winds aren't bad at all tonight. At a balmy 53 right now.

[Guest Sounder]

I have neighbors (in their 60's who moved here in the 1980's) who thought that exact same thing until we had our last two winters. Then the 18+ inch snow I got Jan 3-4 this year totally shocked them. Climate Change is only a long term thing and does not include individual events. We have actually seen very d**n impressive thunderstorms and hailstorms here (20-30+ years ago) compared to now, a very good example why individual events cannot be used as a correlation to Climate Change.

Yeah, too many people attribute single weather events to evidence (or lack thereof) of climate change. Hell, even if the entire planet warms 3-4 degrees in the next couple decades, that doesn't necessarily mean snow in the PNW is done for. While the general trend is for warming sure, it's pretty well established that extreme events in general are going to come with it. Start messing with the jet stream and upper atmosphere in general enough and all sorts of wacky things could happen.

[Guest Sounder]

Gusty south wind at SEA all day.

 

Its been dead calm here all day which is unusual with a strong winds over Seattle... unless there is weak offshore flow here at the time. I don't think that is the case.

 

The 12Z WRF did show a small calm area in central King County this afternoon:

 

I would have thought your location is pretty sheltered from South winds. Are you saying you usually get them there?

[TT-SEA]

I would have thought your location is pretty sheltered from South winds. Are you saying you usually get them there?

 

Sure got blasted yesterday.    When I see that SEA has a south wind gusting into the 20s and 30s then it usually reaches here.   It was oddly calm today given that it was so windy in Seattle today.

[Geos]

Sure got blasted yesterday.    When I see that SEA has a south wind gusting into the 20s and 30s then it usually reaches here.   It was oddly calm today given that it was so windy in Seattle today.

 

I think the ridge behind you protects you somewhat. But other times you get winds that decent off the ridge. Correct in that assumption? 

[MossMan]

Late this afternoon seemed windier than yesterday, lost power at work for a few hours.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's pretty windy here tonight, about as windy as our last storm. With the wind has been a ridiculously strong rain shadow signature. There's been some heavy rain just a bit to the north of here, but only about 0.3" here on the day.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Been pretty calm and dry here all day... not much going on at all — I am bored!

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS looks to shift the ridge position back to 150 by the end of the month.

[snow_wizard]

Been pretty calm and dry here all day... not much going on at all — I am bored!

 

After 1 day?  It was windy for hours yesterday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 0z GFS looks to shift the ridge position back to 150 by the end of the month.

Good. Shove it up there and drop that PV over us!

[luvssnow_spokane]

After 1 day?  It was windy for hours yesterday.

I think it might be my weather related ADD

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the CFS continues to go with extreme GOA blocking for December on most runs.  Some runs are showing January cold also.

[snow_wizard]

I think it might be my weather related ADD

 

We are a sad lot.  I have weather related bi-polar / manic depression myself.

[Phil]

Gorgeous -NAO on the modeling tonight. Great sign if you're rooting for a midwinter -PNA. November -NAO been a strong precursor for a blocky midwinter NPAC through the satellite era in analogous QBO boundary conditions, regardless of ENSO.

[Phil]

Sure enough, the analogs concur...9/10 featured some legitimate winter weather in the PNW. Only one of those years was a dud IIRC (1999/00).

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

Gorgeous -NAO on the modeling tonight. Great sign if you're rooting for a midwinter -PNA. November -NAO been a strong precursor for a blocky midwinter NPAC through the satellite era in analogous QBO boundary conditions, regardless of ENSO.

 

I was noticing that myself.  Some pretty intense anomalies on this run.

[snow_wizard]

Sure enough, the analogs concur...9/10 featured some legitimate winter weather in the PNW. Only one of those years was a dud IIRC (1999/00).

 

 

Really nice group there!  I've been looking more closely at 1973-74 in recent days.  We came VERY close to really getting blasted that January.  A few minor tweaks would have taken a prolonged chilly period to something downright epic.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm not sure which is uglier. That 00z GFS Op run(over the next 10 days) or Lonzo Ball's jump shot.

[Parksvillewx]

1.77" of rain here today so far. Currently raining at a 0.47"/hr rate. Chilly too, 40F at the moment.